When did each southern state's GOP peak in

[OSR stands with Israel]

Include both Federal/State results for this


Florida/Arkansas/Tennessee/Alabama - Not Peaked Yet

South Carolina/Mississippi- 2016

Texas/Lousiana- 2014

Georgia- 2010

Virginia- 2000

North Carolina - Have no idea of this cause Federally this was clearly 2004 and state level 2012





Keep in mind I think South Carolina/Lousiana will remain solidly R for the next two decades at the very least but I dont think they will win with the types of margins they had in the mid 2010s

[Roll Roons]

At the federal level, Tennessee was probably also 2016.

[Not Me, Us]

I actually think Arkansas probably peaked in 2020, at least at the federal level. The whole state is shrinking except for the D-trending Northwest. I don't think Arkansas is going to be a swing state anytime soon, but the GOP's margin should shrink a bit in the coming years.

[Former President tack50]

Wouldn't Texas be in 2004 or something, not 2014?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wouldn't Texas be in 2004 or something, not 2014?

not really:

Presidentially: It voted 20.8 points more Republican that the nation in 2004 while in 2012 it voted around 19.7 points more Republican than the nation and that difference id say is pretty much a home state bump

Senate: Hard to compare this point really so i wont use it

Congressionally: Republicans won the generic ballot in Texas by 18.7 points in 2004 compared to 27.2 points in 2014

Legislatively: Republicans had much larger majorities in 2014 than 2004

[Del Tachi]

2015 may go down as the Republicans’ peak in Mississippi as far as the Legislature/governorship is concerned

[If my soul was made of stone]

North Carolina's may have yet to peak. 2012 was a rout for McCrory, but the Democrats still held a majority of the Council of State; in 2016, even as McCrory's unpopularity sealed his fate, the Republicans picked up two statewide offices--giving them a majority for the first time since Reconstruction--and this held in 2020. Once Elaine Marshall and Beth Wood retire, the GOP may well flip their seats, and the governor's mansion is likely to flip in 2024 (possibly alongside the attorney general's office if the Democratic candidate for governor is indeed Josh Stein as is widely speculated).

[MT Treasurer]

This is difficult because the presidential, House/Senate, and state/state legislative results will yield different pictures in some of these states. Trying to harmonize all three and creating an acceptable compromise, mine would be:

Arkansas - 2016 (legendary House results in which the Democrats came in third with 10% after the Libertarians and Republicans won the HPV with 71% are emblematic of the D collapse of this once-dominant state party)

Louisiana - 2016 (Kennedy's runoff win was historically impressive, as was the R dominance at the federal and state legislative/non-gubernatorial level by then. That said, 2023 is not out of the question. Don’t see any peaks after that, though.)

Mississippi - 2015 (fairly obvious answer, don’t see how you can really argue against it)

Texas - 2014 (see: MS)

Alabama - 2016 (very lopsided margins, absolute R dominance at the state leg level, the Moore-Jones race was unique but signaled the arrival of some major urban/suburban shifts which will make R>60% AL an increasingly tough prospect for the GOP unless racial depolarization among AA/non-white voters kicks in sooner than expected)

Georgia - 2010 (first time they swept all state offices, no statewide race was seriously competitive. Remarkable how short-lived the R dominance was here.)

South Carolina - 2020 (R lean of the state relative to the nation as a whole has been remarkably consistent since 1988, but 2020 wins it because of the R dominance in the state legislature and Congressional delegation. Maybe 2022 will top it but I do think time is running out for further "peaks.")

North Carolina - 2010 (flipped the Legislature, double-digit R margin for Senate with Burr receiving the highest vote share of any NC Republican Senate candidate in history. Also, what has transpired at the federal level since then is just more important than the party picking up several raw offices after 2010, the most important of which they lost in 2016.)

Virginia - 2002 (remarkable that like Pryor in AR-SEN 2008, Warner faced no major-party opponent in the last Senate race won by the once-dominant party. Republicans also won absolutely overwhelming margins in the U.S./state legislative races. I don’t see Warner's GOV win in 2001 as more of a massive warning sign than Bush only winning VA by 8 while carrying Fairfax County and Robb coming so close to beating Allen in 2000.)

Tennessee - 2014 (the margins alone make this a relatively easy pick. While the Tossup/Trend D/GA redux TN predictions are exaggerated IMO and some of the metros in the eastern part of the state won’t trend leftward nearly as strongly as Atlanta, Nashville and to a lesser extent Memphis will make a 2014 repeat nearly impossible.)

Florida - Not Peaked Yet (way more fluid coalitions in a relatively atypical Southern state, only reason the 1980's don’t get it is because of the D dominance at the state level and the major R underperformances in the Congressional races back then. It wasn’t easy not picking 1984 here, though.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are still competetive in South

Watch out for split voting

Ryan/DeWine
Warnock/Kemp
Rubio/Crist






Senate map 55/45 DC and PR Statehood





Gov map 2023/2027

Split voting power

[Skill and Chance]

This is difficult because the presidential, House/Senate, and state/state legislative results will yield different pictures in some of these states. Trying to harmonize all three and creating an acceptable compromise, mine would be:

Arkansas - 2016 (legendary House results in which the Democrats came in third with 10% after the Libertarians and Republicans won the HPV with 71% are emblematic of the D collapse of this once-dominant state party)

Louisiana - 2016 (Kennedy's runoff win was historically impressive, as was the R dominance at the federal and state legislative/non-gubernatorial level by then. That said, 2023 is not out of the question. Don’t see any peaks after that, though.)

Mississippi - 2015 (fairly obvious answer, don’t see how you can really argue against it)

Texas - 2014 (see: MS)

Alabama - 2016 (very lopsided margins, absolute R dominance at the state leg level, the Moore-Jones race was unique but signaled the arrival of some major urban/suburban shifts which will make R>60% AL an increasingly tough prospect for the GOP unless racial depolarization among AA/non-white voters kicks in sooner than expected)

Georgia - 2010 (first time they swept all state offices, no statewide race was seriously competitive. Remarkable how short-lived the R dominance was here.)

South Carolina - 2020 (R lean of the state relative to the nation as a whole has been remarkably consistent since 1988, but 2020 wins it because of the R dominance in the state legislature and Congressional delegation. Maybe 2022 will top it but I do think time is running out for further "peaks.")

North Carolina - 2010 (flipped the Legislature, double-digit R margin for Senate with Burr receiving the highest vote share of any NC Republican Senate candidate in history. Also, what has transpired at the federal level since then is just more important than the party picking up several raw offices after 2010, the most important of which they lost in 2016.)

Virginia - 2002 (remarkable that like Pryor in AR-SEN 2008, Warner faced no major-party opponent in the last Senate race won by the once-dominant party. Republicans also won absolutely overwhelming margins in the U.S./state legislative races. I don’t see Warner's GOV win in 2001 as more of a massive warning sign than Bush only winning VA by 8 while carrying Fairfax County and Robb coming so close to beating Allen in 2000.)

Tennessee - 2014 (the margins alone make this a relatively easy pick. While the Tossup/Trend D/GA redux TN predictions are exaggerated IMO and some of the metros in the eastern part of the state won’t trend leftward nearly as strongly as Atlanta, Nashville and to a lesser extent Memphis will make a 2014 repeat nearly impossible.)

Florida - Not Peaked Yet (way more fluid coalitions in a relatively atypical Southern state, only reason the 1980's don’t get it is because of the D dominance at the state level and the major R underperformances in the Congressional races back then. It wasn’t easy not picking 1984 here, though.)

It’s interesting that the modern era of Republican dominance in VA and GA wasn’t much longer than the Reconstruction era.  The same could easily end up being true of NC.  In a more extreme case, R dominance of MS and LA could be equally short.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s interesting that the modern era of Republican dominance in VA and GA wasn’t much longer than the Reconstruction era.  The same could easily end up being true of NC.  In a more extreme case, R dominance of MS and LA could be equally short.

GA was an even more extreme case than VA and NC (there were posts about GA's suburban/exurban character hurting Democrats as recently as 2005 and even 2015), but I agree. It’s quite likely that GOP rule won’t last longer than Democratic dominance during the Solid South era in any Southern state, which is honestly remarkable.

[smoltchanov]

As party and ideological distribution of seats (especially - in state legislatures) is my favorite theme of research (naturally - mostly Internet-based, and Russian-language, though i spent part of my life in US) - i will add my "2 cents" in few posts beginning with this one. But  first - some terminological details: people like Joe Manchin (absolute centrist, IMHO) are not a "conservatives" to me. Neither are people like Trent Lott or Tom DeLay ("reactionary right-wing activists" or simply "reactionaries"). For me "conservative" is a person like Richard Shelby, Lamar Alexander, Ted Cochran or Bobby Bright (at least - when he was a Democratic congressman from AL-02 in 2009-2010). I will also concentrate most on state legislatures, as they yield bigger statistical data, then Federal seats, while data about distribution of county officials on party and ideological scales are rather difficult to obtain. I will make some prediction for near future too. As always - all opinions are purely my.

Let's go:

Alabama Peaked in the last decade (2010-2020). Near future - probably a stalemate. Democratic caucus is almost all-Black with legislators almost always coming from  safe districts, so - no real targets for Republicans (all conservative Democrats of the past are gone). On the other hand - no really big cities, suburbs are mostly still conservative, racial polarization is high. So - only few seats change in either direction.

Arkansas. Also peaked in the last decade (probably - closer to 2020). Again - most rural and relatively conservative Democrats are gone, and Democratic base is mostly in majority-Black areas  plus Pulaski plus slightly moving Democratic north-west. Some scatterd targets for Republicans - exist (like SD-10 of relatively conservative Larry Teague in rural south-west), but - really few. So, probably - near stalemate in the near future, and very slow Democratic growth later (no really big cities hurts here too).

Florida. Very difficult to predict as it's a very atypical state both geographically and demographically, and with heavy migration from other states too. Very disfunctional Democratic party and very organized Republican one give Republicans hope for slight peak in the near future. But Republicans nearly maxed in rural areas (even Liberty county, which didn't elect Republicans for local offices for more then 100 years, now elects mostly Republicans), and though Republicans may get advantages in some presently Democratic areas (Palm Beach county, for example) Democrats may counter with Orlando and some other areas. So - mostly wash, but some small Republican peak still possible.

Georgia, Probably peaked somewhere in early 2000th. Now Atlanta and it's rapidly diversifying suburbs are simply "too big". As almost everywhere - Democrats are almost obliterated in rural areas, but now - more then compensate for that in Atlanta area. Again - no conservative-inclined Democrats now, so - no really good targets for Republicans. In future - slight Democratic trend.

Part II will cover Louisiana, Mississipi and Carolinas, part III- Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

P.S. Again remind that all opinions are absolute "IMHO"......

[smoltchanov]

Part II

Louisiana. Torn between 2015 and 2019. During that period Democrats began to gain in suburban areas (especially - Jefferson parish), but absolutely crushed in rural ones (in addition - lot of retirements in 2019 because of term limits helped Republicans, as even Cajun SW Louisiana, which in the past refused to go for Goldwater, now is absolutely Republican, except for majority Black areas). Few targets for Republicans still exist (like HD-19 (which Republicans must take when conservative Democrat Francis Thompson retires), or HD-75), but - rather few. Again -almost all conservative Democrats are gone (Thompson is a relict from the past). So, a sort of stalemate for near future, and slight Democratic tendencies - later. But a lot will depend on New Orleans and Baton Rouge and their suburbs - will they grow, and if so - how much?

Mississippi. Generally similar, but with no term limits. Almost no growth, no big cities, mostly Black Democratic caucus. Probably peaked in 2015, though in 2019 tendency of rural majority-white districts to switch to Republicans continued, especially with retirement of "old school" veteran Democrats in such districts as SD-05 and SD-37 (where even with ultrareactionary Sojourner as Republican candidate Democrats were barely able to get over 40% of vote). Processes in DeSoto and Madison counties give Democrats some hope for the future...

North Carolina. Again very difficult to predict. Rapid growth of big cities (Charlotte, Research triangle, and other) and their close-in suburbs allows Democrats generally to "hold line" since 2008 despite losses in more rural conservative areas and in Appalachiana. I expect situation where few percentages may decide a lot of races to continue in the near future. Each party may have peaks, but - not very big one, and not too long-lasting.

South Carolina. Either peaked in the last decade or will peak in very near future (though it's one of the states where Republicans made considerable gains long ago) . Still more "targets" for Republicans then in Alabama or Mississippi, more white (and not especially well-to-do) migration into state, long-term conservative tradition (though, in the last years, usually of more "subtle" then "extreme" type). The Charleston area may be a sort of "salvation" for Democrats in the future, but Charleston and it's suburbs are nowhere near Atlanta in size.

[smoltchanov]

Part III

Tennessee. Either peaked in 2018-2020 or will peak in the near future. AFAIK - Memphis is a slow-growth area, voting is very polarized by race there, and so on. Knoxville and Chattanooga tend to be "somewhat Democratic" itself, but not by much, and are not that big. Nashville alone can't compensate all Democratic losses in rural areas (almost complete, people like conservatively-leaning John Windle from HD-41 are absolute exception, and even rather conservative Kevin Dunlap couldn't hold HD-43 in 2014). The only plus for Democrats - few obvious Republican targets...

Texas. Peaked somewhere between 2004 and 2014. With big cities and close-in suburbs rapidly growing and rural areas - mostly shrinking Republican hopes must lie with conservatively-inclined Hispanics and some other minorities. Trump success among them in 2020 may be sign that "ultraconservative populism" may be somewhat popular among them (or - may be an anomaly). But long-ter perspectives favor Democrats (though not so quickly as some hope). A lot will depends on immigration flows too....

Virginia. IMHO - peaked either in late 1990th or early 2000th. As long as NoVa is rapidly growing while most other parts of state - stagnate or lose population AND social issues trump (sorry!) an economic ones Republicans will have problems of returning to that "glory days"... Virginia is, probably, not a "southern" state anymore (as a whole, some parts of it - surely are), and that reflects in state voting...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As my map showed this isn't 2004/ D's don't have the LA or WVA crescent due to Byrd, Landrieu and Breaux and TX is safe, Castro isn't running statewide and Beto is done but Sunbelt states can vote D, Rubio and DeSamtis have fallen from their 20 pt lead to 3, and there is split voting potential in DeWine/Ryan, Ryan, Brown and Manchin have never lost a GE before

[Skill and Chance]

It’s interesting that the modern era of Republican dominance in VA and GA wasn’t much longer than the Reconstruction era.  The same could easily end up being true of NC.  In a more extreme case, R dominance of MS and LA could be equally short.

GA was an even more extreme case than VA and NC (there were posts about GA's suburban/exurban character hurting Democrats as recently as 2005 and even 2015), but I agree. It’s quite likely that GOP rule won’t last longer than Democratic dominance during the Solid South era in any Southern state, which is honestly remarkable.

Not sure about this because of Arkansas and Alabama.  Also, do you count Florida as Southern today?  The FL GOP is already about halfway there and the state is getting redder.

South Carolina was one of the earlier states to flip to GOP dominance (mid 1990's), so it could be a contender (though the argument that it flips in the 2030's is reasonably strong). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for FL being Titanium R, Rubio/Crist, Ryan/DeWine and Warnock/Kemp split voting

If Shapiro doesn't run it would be Fetterman/Barletta


I don't know why users are surprised, Tillis/Cooper, Brown/DeWine and Sinema/Ducey

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s interesting that the modern era of Republican dominance in VA and GA wasn’t much longer than the Reconstruction era.  The same could easily end up being true of NC.  In a more extreme case, R dominance of MS and LA could be equally short.

GA was an even more extreme case than VA and NC (there were posts about GA's suburban/exurban character hurting Democrats as recently as 2005 and even 2015), but I agree. It’s quite likely that GOP rule won’t last longer than Democratic dominance during the Solid South era in any Southern state, which is honestly remarkable.

Heck if you discount presidential results , GOP dominance in GA will have lasted less than Democratic dominance in GA post Civil rights act given Democrats arguably were dominant in Georgia till the late 90s.