Mexico falls into anarchy in the 1830s

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

So what would have happened had mexico had a slightly more unstable government in the 1830-1850 period and along with OTL's secessions(texas), The republic of the rio grande(more or less OTL's coahuila, tamaulipas and nuevo leon in northeast mexico), Yucatan(most of the yucatan peninsula), Chiapas(our chiapas plus tabasco) and Chan Santa cruz(east of Yucatan on the yucatan peninsdula) manage to make their independence stick? Other than inserting a few more poor latin american naitons does this change anything?

[Colin]

Well let me just first look at the nations that you have suggested:

The republic of the rio grande

Possibly. In one of my no-US timelines that I've been tossing about in my head the Republic of the Rio Grande merges with Texas early on, I just liked that possibility. The economic viability of that nation would seriously be in doubt though. I could see it become annexed into the United States along with Texas or an amalgamation with Texas.

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Probably would have stuck barring any resurgence by Mexico. It seemed to have the second most decent attempt at independence after Texas. I think they would have made it stick. Whether they would be a viable country is another matter completely though.

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In this scenario Chiapas probably would be in Guatemalan hands. Chiapas was part of Guatemala, as part of the Federal Republic of Central America, until 1842. With Mexico in a much worse state than in OTL Chiapas probably would have remained in Guatemalan hands.

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I didn't know they even tried to declare independence. They would probably be absorbed by the Republic of the Yucatan after a short period of time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The most obvious change is that there is an independent Deseret, and as a side effect of that, an independent California. Texas, the Rio Grande, and Yucatan are likely to get annexed by the United States, but there is no war that results from that.  That is going to mean no revisiting of the 1820 Compromise in 1850 and Civil War will likely be delayed and possibly averted.  Sooner or later the Slave States are going to get the hankering to leave and the North won't let them go.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The most obvious change is that there is an independent Deseret, and as a side effect of that, an independent California. Texas, the Rio Grande, and Yucatan are likely to get annexed by the United States, but there is no war that results from that.  That is going to mean no revisiting of the 1820 Compromise in 1850 and Civil War will likely be delayed and possibly averted.  Sooner or later the Slave States are going to get the hankering to leave and the North won't let them go.

Fascinating a US with All of california(both alta and baja), utah, nevada, Colorado, Texas, east new mexico, Coahuila, Nuevo LEon and Tamaulipas but not most of new mexico/arizona

[ag]

I didn't know they even tried to declare independence. They would probably be absorbed by the Republic of the Yucatan after a short period of time.

Actually, it was a lot likelier that it would be other way around. When Yucatan declared independence, the local Spanish-speakers faced two problems: having to hold off Mexico and having to figure out who is the local boss. To make the long story short, they armed the Mayans - which turned out to be a dreadful mistake.

The Mayans rebelled, and soon almost all of the peninsula was in their hands. The only major exceptions were the (wall-enclosed) city of Campeche (because of the fortifications that city was fairly safe) and the capital city of Merida with its port (these were getting ready to run: at some point in Merida they were ringing the church bells and preparing evacuation away from the peninsula).

A temporary respite was provided by the harvest season - the Mayan attack stopped. The Yucatecans were desperately searching for somebody to take them - US, Spain, England, anyone. Nobody wanted to get into the mess, so, in desperation, they asked Mexico to take them back. Mexico sent in sufficient troups to protect them and to take the bulk of the populated area back.

The Mayans kept hold of the less fertile Eastern chunk of the Yucatan (roughly the modern state of Quintana Roo, though without the Mexican-conrolled islands), De facto, they continued holding it for the next 60 years. The unrecognized statelet, which had its capital a Chan Santa Cruz (these days it is called Felipe Carillo Puerto), was only definitively retaken by Mexico in the early 20th century.

[ag]

Between the independence and the 1860s Mexico lived through so many periods of chaos, that, frankly, I have to believe that anyone who both wanted and could separate into an independent state did. There is not much of a way for the country to be more anarchic than it was: the central government's control of the provinces was, at best, nominal. I've just described why the Yucatecan independence didn't stick (it was through no fault of Mexico) - and I am pretty confident that the others would have faced similar-scale problems.