There are three states left to call.
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  There are three states left to call.
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Author Topic: There are three states left to call.  (Read 1600 times)
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« on: October 27, 2020, 06:08:25 PM »

It turns out that there was a systematic polling error in the Midwest against Trump. However, it also turns out that Trump was overpolled in the Southwest. Three states remain too close to call. What's your reaction and who wins?

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Rand
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 06:10:31 PM »

Trump, clearly.
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 06:25:58 PM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
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Astatine
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 06:30:41 PM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
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DKrol
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 06:35:06 PM »

Biden losing Georgia and Florida in this scenario makes me nervous. He would probably still pull out Minnesota, but I think this map is in Trump's favor.
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 09:03:51 PM »

It turns out that there was a systematic polling error in the Midwest against Trump. However, it also turns out that Trump was overpolled in the Southwest. Three states remain too close to call. What's your reaction and who wins?


Trump. It looks like he will manage to keep 294 EV and get the win C after all.
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 09:04:29 PM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
not quite nearly enough to safe her in the latter though, however. so
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 09:06:16 PM »

It turns out that there was a systematic polling error in the Midwest against Trump. However, it also turns out that Trump was overpolled in the Southwest. Three states remain too close to call. What's your reaction and who wins?



Why is 3rd party so high? Anyways, Trump prolly wins since if Biden can't get to 50% in NM or CO, he's prolly not doing well enough in TX.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 09:16:08 PM »

If Biden was underpolled in the Southwest as badly as Trump was in the Midwest, that means he actually probably is winning Texas and therefore the election here.

Map's not gonna happen though.
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 09:54:15 PM »

It turns out that there was a systematic polling error in the Midwest against Trump. However, it also turns out that Trump was overpolled in the Southwest. Three states remain too close to call. What's your reaction and who wins?



Why is 3rd party so high? Anyways, Trump prolly wins since if Biden can't get to 50% in NM or CO, he's prolly not doing well enough in TX.

pretty sure OP only meant to highlight the winner in each state and not have the color of shading stand in for margins of victory there, or so.
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NYSforKennedy2024
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 09:58:12 PM »

Obligatory "This map is not happening".
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Storr
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 10:04:52 PM »

"Well, I'm getting no sleep tonight."
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 11:44:49 AM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
Yea, but hardly.
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gardenofoden
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 01:20:50 PM »

Well Minnesota and NC are irrelevant here so obviously Trump wins since there's no way Texas will be the tipping point state. A more interesting scenario would be if Wisconsin went for Biden, giving him 245 to Trump's 230, with MN and NC being the most likely path. I'd probably expect a 283-255 Trump win though.
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2020, 12:49:38 AM »

On, exactly so!

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
Yea, but hardly.

Lol not really -- it was her 4 most active state after only FL and OH.

I'm talking about the latter of course however, not Michigander.
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2020, 01:58:19 AM »

This relies on the discredited notion that there was a systematic polling error rather than a large pool of undecideds and low-40s leads.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2020, 02:18:00 AM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
not quite nearly enough to safe her in the latter though, however. so

That's kind of beside the point, though.  You could make that argument about any state she campaigned in but didn't win, by that logic.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2020, 02:19:17 AM »

I think it can go either way. Remember when Hillary Clinton thought she had Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrapped up? She chose to not campaign there, which is one of the reasons why she lost the election. Believe it or not I think Joe Biden still wins.
She actually did campaign in both PA and MI.
Yea, but hardly.

Regarding Pennsylvania, that's incorrect.  Their modeling always showed it as a legit battleground state.
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Chips
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2021, 06:50:37 AM »

Would've been Trump 293, Biden 245.
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