Minnesota in 2024

[un]

What's the future for this state politically in your view?

Personally, I think Democrats are favored, mainly cause they still hold the Iron Range, the suburbs and the Twin Cities are both growing and getting more Democratic by the day, and a good chunk of Republicans out in the western part of the state are leaving, a good chunk of them retiring to the Dakotas, which happen to be getting more Republican. Joe Biden won Minnesota comfortably, and even Hillary won despite doing pretty poorly in the suburbs. I just don't really see a Republican win in Minnesota, though anything is possible.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Agreed with everything except for two points:

(1) I don't think the Iron Range really matters at all. It's a historical and cultural quirk, not a kingmaker. Rs could flip the Iron Range and it still wouldn't make up for their losses in MSP metro. Hillary could have lost all of the Arrowhead counties and still won the state by over 10K votes.

(2) Do we know that the voters leaving western MN are Rs? Western MN has been stagnating in population for years and West-Central has swung hard right. I don't know how much of the shift is vote changing vs. voters leaving.

The overall conclusion is correct, though. It would take a catastrophic loss for Ds to lose MN. Kamala Harris would do well enough in the Twin Cities to carry the state even if she loses Wisconsin.

[un]

Agreed with everything except for two points:

(1) I don't think the Iron Range really matters at all. It's a historical and cultural quirk, not a kingmaker. Rs could flip the Iron Range and it still wouldn't make up for their losses in MSP metro. Hillary could have lost all of the Arrowhead counties and still won the state by over 10K votes.

(2) Do we know that the voters leaving western MN are Rs? Western MN has been stagnating in population for years and West-Central has swung hard right. I don't know how much of the shift is vote changing vs. voters leaving.

The overall conclusion is correct, though. It would take a catastrophic loss for Ds to lose MN. Kamala Harris would do well enough in the Twin Cities to carry the state even if she loses Wisconsin.

The reason I brought up the Iron Range is that Republicans invest there a ton whenever they go into Minnesota, so it is politically important, though I agree it will matter less and less. I say this from personal experience too, there are some right wing radio hosts here in Minnesota who tell people to move to the Dakotas due to state Democratic leadership, and some analysis has shown that is having an effect on the population of Western Minnesota, despite the cities growing a lot. My point wasn't necessary that Western MN will get more blue due to people leaving, my point was more so  that rural Minnesota shifts to the GOP aren't super important long term, since they are getting smaller and smaller population wise, many counties in Western MN barely had more voters, or in some cases less voters, than the 2012 election, while the suburbs and cities grew a ton.

[pbrower2a]

I predict that Joe Biden will push infrastructure projects that will devour the iron ore that Minnesota's iron miners will be delighted to dig out of the ground, even if the infrastructure is in some other state.

OK, so what is it? I-98 connecting Fargo to Duluth and in turn Michigan's Upper Peninsula or transforming US 83 into I-23? Infrastructure projects devour iron ore and create mining jobs. 

[DPKdebator]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point. Growth in the Twin Cities doesn't exactly help the GOP's fortunes, so I don't see them winning it anytime soon.

[LiberalDem19]

As someone who's been around the block in this state, seeing the Iron Range go to a recount in the state house, and the GOP failing to field/fielding joke candidates in Edina/Plymouth/Eden Prairie was different. Realignment is definitely a thing and could probably keep going, given that the DFL has plenty of room to grow in the burbs.

It probably leans blue, barring some counter wave in the suburbs. Walz probably gets re-elected pretty easily in 2022.

[MT Treasurer]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

[DaleCooper]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

I think the nail in the coffin as far as Republican prospects statewide in Minnesota are concerned is that even with Greater Minnesota zooming rightward in 2016 and 2020, Biden still managed to do about as well statewide as Obama in 2012 and about 1.5% worse than Obama in 2008. Combine that with the fact that Greater Minnesota is declining in population and the Twin Cities metro is growing, and the state seems like a pretty foolish priority for Republicans if you ask me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Amy Klobuchar is on the ballot in 2024/ the state isn't in play at all

[Hope For A New Era]

R candidate will get 45%, D candidate will get X. X is 55% minus whatever the third party vote share is. This is just how the state works, and if current trends continue, it might be how the country works.


Which is not good, to be clear. It is almost never good to have such a "locked" political system.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasurer think R are gonna crack the 291 blue wall, it's been 5 yrs since they cracked the blue wall when they ran against Benghazi Hillary. With Biden they won, he is stronger than Hillary.
The Rs always proudly boast they beat Hillary, they wouldn't have beaten her in 2008, but she lost to Obama

That's why they won't beat Harris, she isn't scandalous and will be stronger when she picks a male running mate

[DPKdebator]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

I think the nail in the coffin as far as Republican prospects statewide in Minnesota are concerned is that even with Greater Minnesota zooming rightward in 2016 and 2020, Biden still managed to do about as well statewide as Obama in 2012 and about 1.5% worse than Obama in 2008. Combine that with the fact that Greater Minnesota is declining in population and the Twin Cities metro is growing, and the state seems like a pretty foolish priority for Republicans if you ask me.

If there's a conceivable path to victory for the Republicans in Minnesota it could manifest itself in 2022 (more likely in the form of a close statewide race than an outright victory), but it's unlikely that substantial investment would pay off besides a couple of House seats.

[EastwoodS]

R candidate will get 45%, D candidate will get X. X is 55% minus whatever the third party vote share is. This is just how the state works, and if current trends continue, it might be how the country works.


Which is not good, to be clear. It is almost never good to have such a "locked" political system.

No, the country won’t be this favorable for the Dems. Have you ever heard of a realignment or are you so narcissistic you just ignore the possibility of one for the GOP in the very immediate future?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 52% approvals not 40% Trump and Rs haven't broken the blue wall for 5, I repeat 5 yrs since Benghazi Hillary, in 2016

[DaleCooper]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

I think the nail in the coffin as far as Republican prospects statewide in Minnesota are concerned is that even with Greater Minnesota zooming rightward in 2016 and 2020, Biden still managed to do about as well statewide as Obama in 2012 and about 1.5% worse than Obama in 2008. Combine that with the fact that Greater Minnesota is declining in population and the Twin Cities metro is growing, and the state seems like a pretty foolish priority for Republicans if you ask me.

If there's a conceivable path to victory for the Republicans in Minnesota it could manifest itself in 2022 (more likely in the form of a close statewide race than an outright victory), but it's unlikely that substantial investment would pay off besides a couple of House seats.

That's right, Ellison might be vulnerable. But even in 2018 his Republican opponent only got 45%, it was a strong third-party that seemed to hurt Ellison more.

I'm sure they have some room to improve in the legislature, but with Peterson gone are there any clear opportunities regarding federal elections for the MN GOP, presuming fairly neutral redistricting in the House?

[Roll Roons]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

I think the nail in the coffin as far as Republican prospects statewide in Minnesota are concerned is that even with Greater Minnesota zooming rightward in 2016 and 2020, Biden still managed to do about as well statewide as Obama in 2012 and about 1.5% worse than Obama in 2008. Combine that with the fact that Greater Minnesota is declining in population and the Twin Cities metro is growing, and the state seems like a pretty foolish priority for Republicans if you ask me.

If there's a conceivable path to victory for the Republicans in Minnesota it could manifest itself in 2022 (more likely in the form of a close statewide race than an outright victory), but it's unlikely that substantial investment would pay off besides a couple of House seats.

That's right, Ellison might be vulnerable. But even in 2018 his Republican opponent only got 45%, it was a strong third-party that seemed to hurt Ellison more.

I'm sure they have some room to improve in the legislature, but with Peterson gone are there any clear opportunities regarding federal elections for the MN GOP, presuming fairly neutral redistricting in the House?

I think they could flip MN-02 in a neutral year. Angie Craig only won by 2 as Biden won the district by 7, although the left-wing third party candidate got nearly 6%.

[Suburbia]

As someone who's been around the block in this state, seeing the Iron Range go to a recount in the state house, and the GOP failing to field/fielding joke candidates in Edina/Plymouth/Eden Prairie was different. Realignment is definitely a thing and could probably keep going, given that the DFL has plenty of room to grow in the burbs.

It probably leans blue, barring some counter wave in the suburbs. Walz probably gets re-elected pretty easily in 2022.

Are you sure about that, especially with the George Floyd trial?

[Not Me, Us]

Minnesota's teased the Republicans a lot, but they've been stuck at around 45% of the vote for a good 20 years at this point.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your argument/conclusion about MN staying D, but this particular reasoning was applied virtually verbatim to the discussion about Democrats' prospects in AZ before 2016/2018.

I think the nail in the coffin as far as Republican prospects statewide in Minnesota are concerned is that even with Greater Minnesota zooming rightward in 2016 and 2020, Biden still managed to do about as well statewide as Obama in 2012 and about 1.5% worse than Obama in 2008. Combine that with the fact that Greater Minnesota is declining in population and the Twin Cities metro is growing, and the state seems like a pretty foolish priority for Republicans if you ask me.

If there's a conceivable path to victory for the Republicans in Minnesota it could manifest itself in 2022 (more likely in the form of a close statewide race than an outright victory), but it's unlikely that substantial investment would pay off besides a couple of House seats.

That's right, Ellison might be vulnerable. But even in 2018 his Republican opponent only got 45%, it was a strong third-party that seemed to hurt Ellison more.

I'm sure they have some room to improve in the legislature, but with Peterson gone are there any clear opportunities regarding federal elections for the MN GOP, presuming fairly neutral redistricting in the House?

I think they could flip MN-02 in a neutral year. Angie Craig only won by 2 as Biden won the district by 7, although the left-wing third party candidate got nearly 6%.

That seems to be the story a lot in MN. It happened in the 2016 presidential race, the 2018 AG race, and the 2020 Senate race as well. Democrats are certainly favored, but Republicans can make it close when there's a major third party on the ballot. The DFL should prioritize marijuana legalization, the Legal Marijuana Now Party is clearly a thorn in their side.

[LiberalDem19]

As someone who's been around the block in this state, seeing the Iron Range go to a recount in the state house, and the GOP failing to field/fielding joke candidates in Edina/Plymouth/Eden Prairie was different. Realignment is definitely a thing and could probably keep going, given that the DFL has plenty of room to grow in the burbs.

It probably leans blue, barring some counter wave in the suburbs. Walz probably gets re-elected pretty easily in 2022.

Are you sure about that, especially with the George Floyd trial?

Yep, Walz’s approval was +21 in September, 3 months after the protests

[neostassenite31]

As someone who's been around the block in this state, seeing the Iron Range go to a recount in the state house, and the GOP failing to field/fielding joke candidates in Edina/Plymouth/Eden Prairie was different. Realignment is definitely a thing and could probably keep going, given that the DFL has plenty of room to grow in the burbs.

It probably leans blue, barring some counter wave in the suburbs. Walz probably gets re-elected pretty easily in 2022.

Are you sure about that, especially with the George Floyd trial?

Yep, Walz’s approval was +21 in September, 3 months after the protests

Although I wouldn't bet against Walz by any means at this stage, I'd guess that he currently leads a generic Republican by under 10 points if a nonpartisan poll comes out tomorrow, based just on recent gubernatorial polling from MI and WI (both at D+1).

[Person Man]

It's the anti-Florida. It's in a favorable-trending region with favorable-ish demographics but the party can never win. At least Republicans did well down ballot there last year.

[Chips]

Lean D in 2024, Toss-up in 2028.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D in 2024, Toss-up in 2028.

Mn will never be a Tossup it has the longest streak of voting D since 1972 and it only voted for Nixon due to being Veep to Eisenhower.
. Klobuchar and Smith are lifers