Which House incumbents, if any, have a decent chance of losing a primary?

[Greedo punched first]

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

If Cuellar ended up with a remotely similar district post-redistricting, he could be in trouble again considering that he won his 2020 primary by only 4%.

[Greedo punched first]

I forgot about Cuellar. Anyone else? Maybe Lizzie Fletcher if TX-07 becomes majority-Hispanic?

[PAK Man]

Could Schrader face a challenge if he gets drawn into a bluer district? I know there are plenty of Democrats that don't like him.

[Pericles]

If Cuellar ended up with a remotely similar district post-redistricting, he could be in trouble again considering that he won his 2020 primary by only 4%.

Hopefully not, since Biden only won that seat by 4%. And I'm saying this as someone who would have been happy to see him lose the primary in his Clinton +20% district.

[NewYorkExpress]

Liz Cheney almost certainly loses her primary. It's more a question of which opponent beats her.

Matt Gaetz, if he doesn't resign first. I do question just how long ambitious local Republicans will stand by him, especially if they smell blood in the water.

Adam Kinzinger. Like Liz Cheney, it's a question of which opponent beats him (assuming Kinzinger doesn't run for Governor or Senate).

Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn might be vulnerable to challenges from the left (I'd put Pelosi in this category too, but California doesn't have traditional primaries)

Jake Auchinloss almost certainly will face a serious primary challenge, and he might well lose.

Closer to home for me, Carolyn Maloney and Hakeem Jeffries could also face challenges from the left as well.

[Frenchrepublican]

Gonzalez
Cheney
Kinzinger (assuming he doesn't retire / run for Gov)
Rice (assuming he doesn't retire)

Cuellar
Maloney (NY-12 / not SPM)
Cooper
Newman (the district could become much more hispanic)
Schrader
Scott (GA-13)

[Greedo punched first]

Does Carolyn Maloney survive?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Carolyn Maloney survive?

This question is unanswerable until we see how much of her seat is in Manhattan.

[Sir Mohamed]

What about Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Katko (R-NY)?

[Calthrina950]

What about Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Katko (R-NY)?

I think both will be fine. Fitzpatrick, in particular, has certainly satisfied the Republican base with his votes on impeachment and the stimulus, while Katko has a strong local brand.

[beesley]

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

Good question.

On the GOP side:
Cheney
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Mooney (though he's unlikely to be an effective incumbent)
Palazzo
Rice
Upton (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)

On the Dem side:
Auchincloss
Cooper
Cuellar
Foster (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)
Carolyn Maloney
Scott (GA)
Schrader

I would also say Gomez has a fair chance of losing in the general to another D based on the 2020 results though I don't know the local circumstances.

Not sure about Fletcher but as you say it's plausible. The same would apply to Newman.

[Greedo punched first]

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

Good question.

On the GOP side:
Cheney
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Mooney (though he's unlikely to be an effective incumbent)
Palazzo
Rice
Upton (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)

On the Dem side:
Auchincloss
Cooper
Cuellar
Foster (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)
Maloney
Scott (GA)
Schrader

I would also say Gomez has a fair chance of losing in the general to another D based on the 2020 results though I don't know the local circumstances.

Not sure about Fletcher but as you say it's plausible. The same would apply to Newman.

Why Palazzo? Gomez might get a more Hispanic district in 2022 to avoid packing too many Hispanics into neighboring districts for VRA compliance.

[beesley]

Which incumbents, if any, are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge? Jim Cooper’s challenger might be irrelevant if TN-05 is cracked.

Good question.

On the GOP side:
Cheney
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Mooney (though he's unlikely to be an effective incumbent)
Palazzo
Rice
Upton (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)

On the Dem side:
Auchincloss
Cooper
Cuellar
Foster (surprised nobody else has mentioned him)
Maloney
Scott (GA)
Schrader

I would also say Gomez has a fair chance of losing in the general to another D based on the 2020 results though I don't know the local circumstances.

Not sure about Fletcher but as you say it's plausible. The same would apply to Newman.

Why Palazzo? Gomez might get a more Hispanic district in 2022 to avoid packing too many Hispanics into neighboring districts for VRA compliance.

Palazzo is seen as a pretty poor representative and he has continual ethics issues. He already is being challenged by a local sheriff - https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/08/congress-south-mississippi-sheriff-run-against-steven-palazzo-2022/7138241002/

[Greedo punched first]

Gomez had a close race because of the Asian vote in the district. If Carolyn Maloney loses, is it because of ethnic/geographic composition or ideology alone?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Liz Cheney almost certainly loses her primary. It's more a question of which opponent beats her.

Matt Gaetz, if he doesn't resign first. I do question just how long ambitious local Republicans will stand by him, especially if they smell blood in the water.

Adam Kinzinger. Like Liz Cheney, it's a question of which opponent beats him (assuming Kinzinger doesn't run for Governor or Senate).

Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn might be vulnerable to challenges from the left (I'd put Pelosi in this category too, but California doesn't have traditional primaries)

Jake Auchinloss almost certainly will face a serious primary challenge, and he might well lose.

Closer to home for me, Carolyn Maloney and Hakeem Jeffries could also face challenges from the left as well.

I think Jeffries is safe. He seems pretty active in the community and the desire to primary him mostly seems driven by a personal conflict. He's also a lot younger than most of the targets of the JD and is seen as a potential future speaker.

Maloney could be vulnerable - old, weird, and sort of centrist - but I don't see her losing to her latest challenger unless her district is heavily redrawn.

[Greedo punched first]

Is the DSA particularly strong in NYC? Are all California incumbents other than Gomez (if his district is still significantly Asian) likely to win against potential primary challengers? What about Mark Amodei and Dina Titus in Nevada?

[MarkD]

All 10 of the Republicans who voted this year to impeach Trump are potentially going to lose their primary next year.
David Valadao -- one Republican opponent so far; California has a jungle primary, which creates a different environment than partisan primaries in most other states
Adam Kinzinger -- five primary opponents so far
Peter Meijer -- two primary opponents so far
Fred Upton -- three primary opponents so far
John Katko -- no primary opponents so far
Anthony Gonazalez -- two primary opponents so far
Tom Rice -- five primary opponents so far; South Carolina has a primary run-off system
Jaime Herrara Beutler -- three Republican opponents so far; Washington has a jungle primary
Dan Newhouse -- three Republican opponents so far; Washington has a jungle primary
Liz Cheney -- four primary opponents so far

Also, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Ohio are all losing one seat each, which means there could possibly be drastic changes made to district boundaries for Valadao, Kinzinger, Meijer, Upton, Katko, and Gonzalez respectively. The fact that Democrats control redistricting in Illinois and New York could mean that Kinzinger and Katko are in somewhat more trouble than the rest.

Elimination of a district in West Virginia will probably mean trouble for Alex Mooney as well.

[Calthrina950]

All 10 of the Republicans who voted this year to impeach Trump are potentially going to lose their primary next year.
David Valadao -- one Republican opponent so far; California has a jungle primary, which creates a different environment than partisan primaries in most other states
Adam Kinzinger -- five primary opponents so far
Peter Meijer -- two primary opponents so far
Fred Upton -- three primary opponents so far
John Katko -- no primary opponents so far
Anthony Gonazalez -- two primary opponents so far
Tom Rice -- five primary opponents so far; South Carolina has a primary run-off system
Jaime Herrara Beutler -- three Republican opponents so far; Washington has a jungle primary
Dan Newhouse -- three Republican opponents so far; Washington has a jungle primary
Liz Cheney -- four primary opponents so far

Also, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Ohio are all losing one seat each, which means there could possibly be drastic changes made to district boundaries for Valadao, Kinzinger, Meijer, Upton, Katko, and Gonzalez respectively. The fact that Democrats control redistricting in Illinois and New York could mean that Kinzinger and Katko are in somewhat more trouble than the rest.

Elimination of a district in West Virginia will probably mean trouble for Alex Mooney as well.

Herrera-Beutler and Newhouse should be fine, and will be greatly aided by the jungle primary system. I imagine that both will receive Democratic votes if they are forced into a runoff with another Republican, and that should be enough to hand them another term. Valadao should be fine; California, like Oregon and Washington, also has a jungle primary, and Valadao is the only Republican who can win in that district. I don't believe Katko-who has a strong local brand and is popular-is in any danger either, and Upton, who is a long-established incumbent, should be able to survive against a divided field.

Cheney, Kinzinger, Gonzalez, and Rice, however, are very vulnerable, and if Cheney loses her leadership post-which is looking highly likely at this point-that will cost her at home. Meijer should also be concerned, and could very well find himself in the same predicament as his predecessor Justin Amash, who left the Party because of his discomfort with its embrace of Trump.

[Greedo punched first]

Tom Rice is DOA.

[VAR]

Ratings re: the Republicans:

Liz Cheney -- Tossup
Anthony Gonzalez -- Tossup, but I feel like some people are overestimating how vulnerable he is.
Jaime Herrera Beutler -- Likely Incumbent, hard to see her coming in third place.
John Katko -- ask me after redistricting, but I don't think he would be DOA against the radioactive Tenney.
Adam Kinzinger -- Lean Challenger
Peter Meijer -- Lean Incumbent
Dan Newhouse -- same as JHB
Tom Rice -- Likely Challenger, but he probably retires.
Fred Upton -- Lean Challenger, but he probably retires.
David Valadao -- same as JHB and Newhouse

I would say Rice, Kinzinger, Upton and one of Cheney / Gonzalez / Katko won't be in Congress come 2022.

[Flyersfan232]

Mike Doyle? Maybe with the recent mayoral election there it possible

[BuckeyeNut]

Anthony Gonzalez is in trouble, but he’s maintained strong fundraising, so he is not doomed so long as he’s not dealing with a single MAGA challenger.

[Greedo punched first]

Why Jake Auchinloss?