U.S. Is Poised to Beat China’s V-Shaped Recovery, JPMorgan Says

[Beet]

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. recovery is accelerating, putting it on course to outperform China’s V-shaped rebound, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists.

“We now expect the U.S. to outpace China, moving on a path that raises GDP well above its pre-crisis trajectory,” the economists wrote in a note. “We expect a regional gap between the U.S. and China and the performance of the rest of EM to remain large for some time to come.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-is-poised-to-beat-chinas-v-shaped-recovery-jpmorgan-says/ar-BB1dQQRW

[2952-0-0]

If Biden is correct in that the US reaches herd immunity in vaccination by the summer, 2021 will be a huge propaganda victory for the US. The past four years, and the past year in particular, have been a disgrace for US reputation. A swift recovery in just a few months thanks to red-white-blue ingenuity and perseverance under steady leadership is the stuff of Hollywood screenwriters.

Yesterday, Biden toured the Pfizer factory and stated that the US must provide vaccination aid to the rest of the world. After the US has recovered, it will be able to flood the third world with vaccines, and these will be better received than the ones sent by China.

Then for the next 50 years, just like how Americans never shut up about how they saved the world from the Nazis, we'll never hear the end of Americans bragging about how they defeated the pandemic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That can only happen if we provide the economic relief people (and state governments) need right now. Otherwise, regardless of what happens with the virus, the economy will enter a death spiral that will take years to dissipate.

[CumbrianLefty]

That can only happen if we provide the economic relief people (and state governments) need right now. Otherwise, regardless of what happens with the virus, the economy will enter a death spiral that will take years to dissipate.

Yes, hard to disagree with this. How are those stimulus checks going?

[jaichind]

I am not sure what JPM is talking about.  Their own latest GDP projection from a week ago has 2021 USA GDP growth at 5.3% and 2021 PRC GDP growth at 9.4%.  Before COVID-19 the USA in the 2020s was most likely going to be a ~2% growth economy while the PRC was most likely going to be a ~5.5% growth economy.  So even in 2021 the PRC is still pulling away from the USA at a greater than than what the underlying potential would suggest.

I think what JPM is saying is that the 2021Q1 and 2021Q2 QoQ numbers for the USA will be very strong and most likely stronger than PRC.  But that is mostly due to base effects of a very strong 2020Q4 in the PRC followed by a good but not great 2020Q4 USA quarter.  If so JPM is not really saying anything anyone else does not know already.

Still the I agree with the narrative.  The 2020 USA economic response in term of GDP numbers are fairly positive compared to all other advanced economies and certain for sure against non-Oriental emerging economies.   With the unexpected Dem control of the Senate if the Biden administration  can get is $1.9 trillion stimulus through I expect another short term burst in 2021.  Of course that is just converging the USA to its underlining trajectory faster than most other advanced and emerging economies trading of larger debt load.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian GDP probably won’t return to 2019-levels until 2025 or so because tourism and the associated hotel and gastro sectors will struggle for years to come back ...

[jaichind]

The economic recovery trends are

a) PRC mostly back on old economic trajectory by end of 2020
b) USA will mostly be back on old economic trajectory by end of 2021 or early 2022
c) Most other advanced economies will be back on old economic trajectory by late 2022 or 2023 or perhaps later depending on the economy in question (Latin economies doing worse than Nordic-Germanic economies.)
d) Main outlier would be ROC which is now on an economic trajectory higher than pre-COVID trends.  This is mostly because they benefit the most from the mid to late 2020 PRC export surge.  If there are going to be conspiracies on who might have started COVID-19 on purpose the old rule "who benefited" should point to the ROC as the main "suspect."

[Samof94]

That can only happen if we provide the economic relief people (and state governments) need right now. Otherwise, regardless of what happens with the virus, the economy will enter a death spiral that will take years to dissipate.

Biden plans to have a stimulus passed by Congress before March 14th.