2024 four-horse race

[Hnv1]

Biden wins 2020 but Trump refuses to concede, after being ousted from the WH he pledges to run again in 2024.
Built-in tensions within both major parties escalate, GOP big guns manage to squeeze Trump supporters out leading the former president to run on a Populist ticket against Pence\insert other more generic R.

Meanwhile, the democrats are experiencing a 1912 breakdown between their moderate wing and the progressive wing, leading to a big democratic figure running on a progressive ticket (80-year-old Sanders or AOC).

making way to vote-splitting on both sides. how will the map look like? Harris is the D candidate, Trump the Populist, choose your Progressive ticket, and I assume Pence is the R nominee.

while I can see Trump carrying some states (WV e.g.) I can't see a state where the progressive ticket gains enough and benefits enough from splitting to allow for a victory (if Sanders is on the ticket than maybe Vermont, and maybe with enough vote-splitting edging in OR with less than 35% of the vote).

SHOW ME YOUR MAPS

[Nate Shahidi]

Chaos. Just chaos. I either see the Progessive or Trump winning. I do not see either moderate winning.

[Nate Shahidi]

7:00 PM Poll Closings: IN,KY, VT, VA, SC, GA

7:00 PM ET: Trump wins Kentucky (8 dels), while AOC carries Vermont (3 dels). IN, GA, VA, SC too early to call. Trump: 8, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

7:30 PM Poll Closings: WV, OH, NC

7:30 PM: Trump carries West Virginia (4 dels). OH and NC to early to call. Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

8:00 PM Poll Closings: AL, CT, DC, DE, FL, MD, NJ, PA, MA, RI, ME, IL, MS, TN, OK, NH, MO

8:00 PM: Harris wins DC (3 dels), Maryland (10 dels), New Jersey (14 dels), ME-1 (1 del), Connecticut (7 dels), and Rhode Island (3 dels), and Delaware (3 dels). AL, FL, MA, PA, ME-2, ME-AL, IL, MS, TN, NH, MO to early to call. Harris: 41, Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0

8:13 PM: Pence wins Indiana (11 dels). Harris: 41, Trump: 12, Pence: 11, AOC: 3

8:30 PM Poll Closing: AR

8:30 PM: Arkansas too early to call.

9:00 PM Poll Closings: NY, MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE, ND, SD, WY, CO, NM, AZ

9:00 PM: AOC wins New York (28 dels). Harris carries New Mexico (5 dels). Trump carries ME-2. MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE-2, NE-3, NE-AL, ND, SD, WY, CO, KS, and NE-1 too early to call. Harris: 46, AOC: 31, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:21 PM: Harris carries Virginia (13 dels). AOC carries Illinois (19 dels). Harris: 59, AOC: 50, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:32 PM: Trump wins Ohio (17 dels). AOC wins Massachussetts (11 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump 30, Pence 11

9:52 PM: Pence carries Georgia (16 dels). Trump carries Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3 dels), South Dakota (3 dels), NE-3 (1 del), and Oklahoma (7 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump: 47, Pence: 27

10:00 PM Poll Closings: IA, MT, UT, NV

10:00 PM: Trump wins Iowa (6 dels), South Carolina (9 dels), and Montana (4 dels). Pence wins Utah (6 dels). Harris carries ME-AL (2 dels). NV too early to call. Trump: 66, AOC: 61, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

10:46 PM: Trump wins Alabama (8 dels), Tennessee (11 dels), Kansas (6 dels), NE-1 (1 dels) and Arkansas (6 dels). AOC wins Colorado (10 dels). Trump: 98, AOC: 71, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

11:00 PM Poll Closings: CA, WA, OR, HI, ID

11:00 PM: AOC carries California (54 dels), Oregon (8 dels), and Washington (12 dels). Trump carries Mississippi (6 dels), Idaho (4 dels), and Louisiana (8 dels). Harris wins Hawaii (4 dels). AOC: 145, Trump 116, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:07 PM: Trump wins Florida (31 dels) and NE-AL (2 dels). Trump: 149, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:39 PM: Trump wins North Carolina (16 dels) and Missouri (10 dels). Pence wins Arizona (12 dels). Trump: 175, AOC 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:27 AM In a stunning upset, Trump wins Texas (41 dels) and Wisconsin (10 dels). Trump is now the unofficial winner of this election, as he has won a plurality of delegates. Trump: 226, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:49 AM: Harris wins Nevada (6 dels). But, in another stunning upset, Trump wins Pennsylvania (19 dels). Ironically, this was the exact time Trump won Pennsylvania 8 years prior in 2016, as per CNN. Trump: 245, AOC: 145, Harris: 71, Pence: 45

1:00 AM Poll Closings: AK

1:00 AM: Pence carries Alaska (3 dels). Trump 245, AOC 145, Harris 71, Pence 48.

2:34 AM: Trump carries Minnesota (9 dels). Harris wins NE-2 (1 del). Trump: 257, AOC 145, Harris 72, Pence 48.

3:01 AM: Trump officially wins the Presidency by carrying Michigan (15 dels), becoming the second president in history (the first being Grover Cleveland) to win two non-consecutive terms, and the only president in history to win a majority of delegates with more than two major parties on the ticket. Trump: 272, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

4:00 PM, 3 days later: Trump wins New Hampshire, ending a very chaotic election cycle. Final delegate count: Trump: 276, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

[Hnv1]

7:00 PM Poll Closings: IN,KY, VT, VA, SC, GA

7:00 PM ET: Trump wins Kentucky (8 dels), while AOC carries Vermont (3 dels). IN, GA, VA, SC too early to call. Trump: 8, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

7:30 PM Poll Closings: WV, OH, NC

7:30 PM: Trump carries West Virginia (4 dels). OH and NC to early to call. Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

8:00 PM Poll Closings: AL, CT, DC, DE, FL, MD, NJ, PA, MA, RI, ME, IL, MS, TN, OK, NH, MO

8:00 PM: Harris wins DC (3 dels), Maryland (10 dels), New Jersey (14 dels), ME-1 (1 del), Connecticut (7 dels), and Rhode Island (3 dels), and Delaware (3 dels). AL, FL, MA, PA, ME-2, ME-AL, IL, MS, TN, NH, MO to early to call. Harris: 41, Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0

8:13 PM: Pence wins Indiana (11 dels). Harris: 41, Trump: 12, Pence: 11, AOC: 3

8:30 PM Poll Closing: AR

8:30 PM: Arkansas too early to call.

9:00 PM Poll Closings: NY, MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE, ND, SD, WY, CO, NM, AZ

9:00 PM: AOC wins New York (28 dels). Harris carries New Mexico (5 dels). Trump carries ME-2. MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE-2, NE-3, NE-AL, ND, SD, WY, CO, KS, and NE-1 too early to call. Harris: 46, AOC: 31, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:21 PM: Harris carries Virginia (13 dels). AOC carries Illinois (19 dels). Harris: 59, AOC: 50, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:32 PM: Trump wins Ohio (17 dels). AOC wins Massachussetts (11 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump 30, Pence 11

9:52 PM: Pence carries Georgia (16 dels). Trump carries Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3 dels), South Dakota (3 dels), NE-3 (1 del), and Oklahoma (7 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump: 47, Pence: 27

10:00 PM Poll Closings: IA, MT, UT, NV

10:00 PM: Trump wins Iowa (6 dels), South Carolina (9 dels), and Montana (4 dels). Pence wins Utah (6 dels). Harris carries ME-AL (2 dels). NV too early to call. Trump: 66, AOC: 61, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

10:46 PM: Trump wins Alabama (8 dels), Tennessee (11 dels), Kansas (6 dels), NE-1 (1 dels) and Arkansas (6 dels). AOC wins Colorado (10 dels). Trump: 98, AOC: 71, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

11:00 PM Poll Closings: CA, WA, OR, HI, ID

11:00 PM: AOC carries California (54 dels), Oregon (8 dels), and Washington (12 dels). Trump carries Mississippi (6 dels), Idaho (4 dels), and Louisiana (8 dels). Harris wins Hawaii (4 dels). AOC: 145, Trump 116, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:07 PM: Trump wins Florida (31 dels) and NE-AL (2 dels). Trump: 149, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:39 PM: Trump wins North Carolina (16 dels) and Missouri (10 dels). Pence wins Arizona (12 dels). Trump: 175, AOC 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:27 AM In a stunning upset, Trump wins Texas (41 dels) and Wisconsin (10 dels). Trump is now the unofficial winner of this election, as he has won a plurality of delegates. Trump: 226, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:49 AM: Harris wins Nevada (6 dels). But, in another stunning upset, Trump wins Pennsylvania (19 dels). Ironically, this was the exact time Trump won Pennsylvania 8 years prior in 2016, as per CNN. Trump: 245, AOC: 145, Harris: 71, Pence: 45

1:00 AM Poll Closings: AK

1:00 AM: Pence carries Alaska (3 dels). Trump 245, AOC 145, Harris 71, Pence 48.

2:34 AM: Trump carries Minnesota (9 dels). Harris wins NE-2 (1 del). Trump: 257, AOC 145, Harris 72, Pence 48.

3:01 AM: Trump officially wins the Presidency by carrying Michigan (15 dels), becoming the second president in history (the first being Grover Cleveland) to win two non-consecutive terms, and the only president in history to win a majority of delegates with more than two major parties on the ticket. Trump: 272, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

4:00 PM, 3 days later: Trump wins New Hampshire, ending a very chaotic election cycle. Final delegate count: Trump: 276, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

Interesting! I think Harris carries California and Probanly IL rather than AOC. It also seems like you don’t think there will be much ticket splitting between Trump and Pence

[Nate Shahidi]

Pence just doesn't have the same charisma that Trump has. As for California, maybe, but only because it's Harris's home state. California and Illinois are VERY progressive states.

[America Needs R'hllor]

At the end of the day, it wouldn't *really* be a 4-way, realistically. Trump does have a very strong cult-like base in the Republican Party, but after losing an election to Biden most Republicans wouldn't stick to him and would just vote for their party's nominee. Charisma isn't enough to negate losing, not running on a major party ticket, and probably creating hostility for harming Pence's chances. And even that- in four years Trump will be older, he already clearly isn't the same as he was four years ago and he went through covid-19. He won't be in a great shape. I'd not think he gets more than 10% of the vote, 15% at most.

For Democrats, Bernie would be way too old and isn't the type to run a third party challenge, and AOC has even less appeal. Sure, she appeals to a lot of young people, but she doesn't have even close to the cult-like following Trump has in the GOP, and she'd be facing heavy fire for harming the chances of Harris, who is pretty popular in the party base. AOC would be reduced to the candidate of the Twitter Left, and while she may be much stronger than folks like Nina Turner, I don't see her getting to double digits when all is said and done. Ditto for Sanders, though he'd get 2-3% more than her.

I think it ends up as a pretty comfortable Harris victory because Trump would take a lot more right-wing votes than AOC takes left-wing votes.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY)
Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (I-MN) / Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner (D-OH)

Omar runs knowing she isn't eligible for the presidency if she wins, but does it to make a statement. She's the only one who would actually defy the party IMO.

The House does something weird, like picking the establishment Democrat and Republican for president and vice president.

[Left Wing]

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY)
Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (I-MN) / Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner (D-OH)

Omar runs knowing she isn't eligible for the presidency if she wins, but does it to make a statement. She's the only one who would actually defy the party IMO.

The House does something weird, like picking the establishment Democrat and Republican for president and vice president.

Omar wouldn’t be put on ballots and even if she was, it’s laughable to think she would win WI and MI

[Agonized-Statism]

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY)
Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (I-MN) / Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner (D-OH)

Omar runs knowing she isn't eligible for the presidency if she wins, but does it to make a statement. She's the only one who would actually defy the party IMO.

The House does something weird, like picking the establishment Democrat and Republican for president and vice president.

Omar wouldn’t be put on ballots and even if she was, it’s laughable to think she would win WI and MI

It's laughable to think a four-way split in the electorate wouldn't make for weird results. Feel free to swap out for a candidate you feel makes more sense if it bothers you so much.

[Hnv1]

Well, I feel this thread is suddenly more relevant.

Pence v. Trump v. Harris v. one from the squad. go

[hyouzel the predictor]

Well, I would imagine that a 2024 Trump run would be a lot more openly fascistic, encouraging violence and basically turning off all non hardcore Trumpies. That being said, 20% of the population is still solidly in his pocket, and 40% of Republicans support this coup and him so... lets just say ~20% overall, 40% of Republicans back him.

Pence gains a lot of the moderates' respect but still doesn't carry enough water to do well on his own, as he is left out to dry by the religious right who have splintered into Trumpist and normal factions and the Moderates, who are more likely to vote Harris. I would say Pence gets around ~25% overall, 60% of Republicans and 30% of Independents back him as the moderate Republican he positions himself to be.

Harris is forced to run a lot more to the center as having two far left candidates will not be a good electoral strategy, so she plays a lot more to the WWC and tries to come across as a non-pompous Hillary Clinton. She probably fails, but still gets a lot of the vote from the suburbs and rural Black communities... Probably 30% overall, 40% of Independents and 60% of Democrats?

I think the only truly electable squad member is Ayanna Pressley, as she has no major controversy (AOC, Tlaib, Bush), is too green (Jones, Torres, Newman), or cannot run (Omar). I think that she moves to a similar economic populist tone as Sanders in 2016, essentially saying that while what Biden has done is good they need to go further. I can imagine that she still brings a lot of the social liberalism of the Squad with her which inevitably hurts her among moderates, but she still does well overall. Probably around 25% overall as well, most over her support from major population centers, colleges, and solid D bastions.

Here is the potential map in my eyes:

Former President Donald J. Trump (AF-FL) and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (AF-GA)
Former Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Senator Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Governor John Fetterman (D-PA)



Definitely some surprising results due to close races in some wacky places. A lot of the odd choices were major population centers stealing Dem votes to Progressive and turning the state Red (See California), while states with a smaller percentage of Dem voters with no major population centers were a lot more homogeneous and voted for Harris against the split Republicans.

[Hnv1]

Well, I would imagine that a 2024 Trump run would be a lot more openly fascistic, encouraging violence and basically turning off all non hardcore Trumpies. That being said, 20% of the population is still solidly in his pocket, and 40% of Republicans support this coup and him so... lets just say ~20% overall, 40% of Republicans back him.

Pence gains a lot of the moderates' respect but still doesn't carry enough water to do well on his own, as he is left out to dry by the religious right who have splintered into Trumpist and normal factions and the Moderates, who are more likely to vote Harris. I would say Pence gets around ~25% overall, 60% of Republicans and 30% of Independents back him as the moderate Republican he positions himself to be.

Harris is forced to run a lot more to the center as having two far left candidates will not be a good electoral strategy, so she plays a lot more to the WWC and tries to come across as a non-pompous Hillary Clinton. She probably fails, but still gets a lot of the vote from the suburbs and rural Black communities... Probably 30% overall, 40% of Independents and 60% of Democrats?

I think the only truly electable squad member is Ayanna Pressley, as she has no major controversy (AOC, Tlaib, Bush), is too green (Jones, Torres, Newman), or cannot run (Omar). I think that she moves to a similar economic populist tone as Sanders in 2016, essentially saying that while what Biden has done is good they need to go further. I can imagine that she still brings a lot of the social liberalism of the Squad with her which inevitably hurts her among moderates, but she still does well overall. Probably around 25% overall as well, most over her support from major population centers, colleges, and solid D bastions.

Here is the potential map in my eyes:

Former President Donald J. Trump (AF-FL) and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (AF-GA)
Former Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC)
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Senator Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Governor John Fetterman (D-PA)



Definitely some surprising results due to close races in some wacky places.

Nice map.
I think machine dems can keep MA NY PA in the D column.
vote splitting in Appalachia is going to be brutal. can see some bizarre results there

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

7:00 PM Poll Closings: IN,KY, VT, VA, SC, GA

7:00 PM ET: Trump wins Kentucky (8 dels), while AOC carries Vermont (3 dels). IN, GA, VA, SC too early to call. Trump: 8, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

7:30 PM Poll Closings: WV, OH, NC

7:30 PM: Trump carries West Virginia (4 dels). OH and NC to early to call. Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0, Harris: 0

8:00 PM Poll Closings: AL, CT, DC, DE, FL, MD, NJ, PA, MA, RI, ME, IL, MS, TN, OK, NH, MO

8:00 PM: Harris wins DC (3 dels), Maryland (10 dels), New Jersey (14 dels), ME-1 (1 del), Connecticut (7 dels), and Rhode Island (3 dels), and Delaware (3 dels). AL, FL, MA, PA, ME-2, ME-AL, IL, MS, TN, NH, MO to early to call. Harris: 41, Trump: 12, AOC: 3, Pence: 0

8:13 PM: Pence wins Indiana (11 dels). Harris: 41, Trump: 12, Pence: 11, AOC: 3

8:30 PM Poll Closing: AR

8:30 PM: Arkansas too early to call.

9:00 PM Poll Closings: NY, MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE, ND, SD, WY, CO, NM, AZ

9:00 PM: AOC wins New York (28 dels). Harris carries New Mexico (5 dels). Trump carries ME-2. MI, WI, MN, LA, TX, KS, NE-2, NE-3, NE-AL, ND, SD, WY, CO, KS, and NE-1 too early to call. Harris: 46, AOC: 31, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:21 PM: Harris carries Virginia (13 dels). AOC carries Illinois (19 dels). Harris: 59, AOC: 50, Pence: 11, Trump: 13

9:32 PM: Trump wins Ohio (17 dels). AOC wins Massachussetts (11 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump 30, Pence 11

9:52 PM: Pence carries Georgia (16 dels). Trump carries Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3 dels), South Dakota (3 dels), NE-3 (1 del), and Oklahoma (7 dels). AOC: 61, Harris: 59, Trump: 47, Pence: 27

10:00 PM Poll Closings: IA, MT, UT, NV

10:00 PM: Trump wins Iowa (6 dels), South Carolina (9 dels), and Montana (4 dels). Pence wins Utah (6 dels). Harris carries ME-AL (2 dels). NV too early to call. Trump: 66, AOC: 61, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

10:46 PM: Trump wins Alabama (8 dels), Tennessee (11 dels), Kansas (6 dels), NE-1 (1 dels) and Arkansas (6 dels). AOC wins Colorado (10 dels). Trump: 98, AOC: 71, Harris: 61, Pence: 33

11:00 PM Poll Closings: CA, WA, OR, HI, ID

11:00 PM: AOC carries California (54 dels), Oregon (8 dels), and Washington (12 dels). Trump carries Mississippi (6 dels), Idaho (4 dels), and Louisiana (8 dels). Harris wins Hawaii (4 dels). AOC: 145, Trump 116, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:07 PM: Trump wins Florida (31 dels) and NE-AL (2 dels). Trump: 149, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 33

11:39 PM: Trump wins North Carolina (16 dels) and Missouri (10 dels). Pence wins Arizona (12 dels). Trump: 175, AOC 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:27 AM In a stunning upset, Trump wins Texas (41 dels) and Wisconsin (10 dels). Trump is now the unofficial winner of this election, as he has won a plurality of delegates. Trump: 226, AOC: 145, Harris: 65, Pence: 45

12:49 AM: Harris wins Nevada (6 dels). But, in another stunning upset, Trump wins Pennsylvania (19 dels). Ironically, this was the exact time Trump won Pennsylvania 8 years prior in 2016, as per CNN. Trump: 245, AOC: 145, Harris: 71, Pence: 45

1:00 AM Poll Closings: AK

1:00 AM: Pence carries Alaska (3 dels). Trump 245, AOC 145, Harris 71, Pence 48.

2:34 AM: Trump carries Minnesota (9 dels). Harris wins NE-2 (1 del). Trump: 257, AOC 145, Harris 72, Pence 48.

3:01 AM: Trump officially wins the Presidency by carrying Michigan (15 dels), becoming the second president in history (the first being Grover Cleveland) to win two non-consecutive terms, and the only president in history to win a majority of delegates with more than two major parties on the ticket. Trump: 272, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

4:00 PM, 3 days later: Trump wins New Hampshire, ending a very chaotic election cycle. Final delegate count: Trump: 276, AOC: 145, Harris: 72, Pence: 48.

Despite being a fan of her policies, AOC cannot win that much states. The only progressive I know of that can be politically successful in that way is Sanders or if you consider him progressive, Yang.