Albanian Parliamentary Election, April 25th, 2021

[Storr]

I was surprised there wasn't a thread for this election already:

All 140 seats in Parliament are up for election.
The two leading parties in contention are the Social Democratic Party lead by incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama, while his main rival is the Democratic Party - Alliance for Change led by former Mayor of Tirana (the Albanian capital) Lulzim Basha. Recent polls have indicated a right tight result. In 2020 Constitutional changes pushed through by the ruling Social Democratic Party resulted in a new electoral system: "The 140 members of Parliament were elected in twelve multi-member constituencies based on the twelve counties by open list using proportional representation (using a 1% national electoral threshold) with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Albanian_parliamentary_election

[Beagle]

There isn't much interest in Balkan elections, which is unfortunate, but since they quite often - like in this instance - are r/awfuleverything material, it is also understandable.

I don't claim any substantial knowledge of Albanian politics, other than the most basic facts like Rama's party representing the Tosk and Basha's party - the Gheg, but I'd point out that the official results are not expected any time soon due to the vote counting process being removed from polling stations. The exit polls show an extremely close race (OK, the independent ones do, the partisan ones go as you'd expect). Whichever side - probably Basha's - loses in the official count will be certain to call for protests. I hope they will not be too violent - for an Albanian election only one murder before the polls, and one stabbing and one assault on election day is relative progress, so things may be getting better. Of course, there was also this:



https://twitter.com/EuronewsAlbania/status/1386278573409853442

[PetrSokol]

What is the Social democratic party? Is it rather pro-PS or pro-PD?

[Beagle]

What is the Social democratic party? Is it rather pro-PS or pro-PD?

If you mean PSD, they are pro-PS. Their party founder/strongman was recently appointed head of the Albanian academy of sciences by Rama.

Official results are trickling in and they are pointing to a rather comfortable win for Rama. I cannot comment on how representative they are of a) the actual vote as it was cast and/or b) the mood in the country.

[PetrSokol]

But the gap between PS and PD is decrasing during the day step by step... It seems that opposition could pay for the separate candidacy at the end because of many small constituncies where LSI is unable to reach the first mandate...

[RGM2609]

But the gap between PS and PD is decrasing during the day step by step... It seems that opposition could pay for the separate candidacy at the end because of many small constituncies where LSI is unable to reach the first mandate...

Oh, I was referring to the fact that PS will definitely win, as in come first. Who will lead the govt is still not clear, though PS is still a favorite there.

[RGM2609]

So, the results seem to have stagnated at 49 to 39 in favor of PS, with 30% of the votes still left to be counted. While it seems clear now that PS will come ahead by a significant margin, does anyone know when to expect the rest of this and what is taking them so long?

[MRCVzla]

Results page: http://kqz.gov.al/results/results2021.htm

With more than 70% counted, the current seat projection (constituency-level with D'Hondt and 1% nationwide theshold) is the following (and comparision with 2017 results):
PS (Socialist Party): 73 (-1)
PD-AN (Democratic Party-Alliance for Change): 59 (+13, PD+PDIU)
LSI (Socialist Movement for Integration): 5 (-14)
PSD (Social Democratic Party): 3 (+2)

Central counties of Durrës (14 seats) and capital Tirana (36 seats) have less precincts counted at this moment with 44% and 52% each one. Probably they reach almost 100% between tomorrow Tuesday and Wednesday.

Exit polls were most cautious with PS majority giving some hope to the opposition. Seat projections according exit polls were PS 65-71, PD-AN 62-66, LSI 3-10 and PSD 0-2. Some pollster was also predicting within the margin of error the possible entry of Nisma Thurje (Hashtag Initiative), a new anti-corruption party who currently in the official count is at 0.6%.

Aside for the Gheg/Tosk division. It's interesting how concentrated is the support of minor party PSD (currently with 2% nationwide). They're strong in the northern county of Shkodër (11 seats) with more than 14% (with +80% counted) and a 3% in Tirana, in the rest of the country are around 1%.

[PetrSokol]

Regarding PSD: I have read via translator on Albanian webpage that the leader of the party, businesmann Doshi was the leading candidate of the party in Skodra/Skadar and in Tirana constiutuencis. It could be the reason why they were so strong in both. Btw. he resigned for mandate of MP yesterday....

On the other hand the division North vs. South is very still strong in the compation PSSH vs. PD...  I was even wondering if PD could ever win in this cleavage North vs. Soust when it seems the North is smaler...

[CumbrianLefty]

PD have won elections before, so in itself it clearly isn't an insuperable handicap.