1936 redux

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Say through some freak occurrence Biden goes into 2024 enormously popular and wins an election by similar margins to FDR in 36. What does a modern day electoral map with a Landon type GOP candidate and a third union party type parallel look like? I'm guessing the last two GOP states are Wyoming and West Virginia.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is the best I could come up with

[TheReckoning]

This is the best I could come up with

Is that assuming Biden also wins by a 24-point margin?

[James Ericson]

This is the best I could come up with

Arkansas would not flip before Louisiana.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is the best I could come up with

Arkansas would not flip before Louisiana.

Eeeeh Arkansas is a bit more swingy than Louisiana IMO and every election brings surprises.

[James Ericson]

This is the best I could come up with

Arkansas would not flip before Louisiana.

Eeeeh Arkansas is a bit more swingy than Louisiana IMO and every election brings surprises.

Arkansas voted 8-9 points to the right of Louisiana in 2020.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This is the best I could come up with

Arkansas would not flip before Louisiana.

Eeeeh Arkansas is a bit more swingy than Louisiana IMO and every election brings surprises.

JBE proves that there is a path to Blouisiana. Arkansas can't be won by doing well in rural areas like LA can.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is the best I could come up with

Arkansas would not flip before Louisiana.

Eeeeh Arkansas is a bit more swingy than Louisiana IMO and every election brings surprises.

JBE proves that there is a path to Blouisiana. Arkansas can't be won by doing well in rural areas like LA can.

Ight I’ll change it

[Hope For A New Era]

We are experiencing very high polarization. A 1936 is unlikely, especially after 2020 failed to be a 1932.

Seeking reduxes? Look to 1900.


Of course, if a miracle occurs and there is a sudden rapid decrease in polarization over the next four years, I'd expect Biden's ceiling to be the 413 map plus Alaska and maybe one other surprise wildcard state (Utah? Montana? Mississippi?). But I think after that failed to occur during 2020 of all elections it's not even worth discussing anymore.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

We are experiencing very high polarization. A 1936 is unlikely, especially after 2020 failed to be a 1932.

Seeking reduxes? Look to 1900.


Of course, if a miracle occurs and there is a sudden rapid decrease in polarization over the next four years, I'd expect Biden's ceiling to be the 413 map plus Alaska and maybe one other surprise wildcard state (Utah? Montana? Mississippi?). But I think after that failed to occur during 2020 of all elections it's not even worth discussing anymore.

2020 led to polarization on steroids at least in part because of people being home all the time and plugged deeper into social media then ever before. It's possible that things could bounce back somewhat post-pandemic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Id say that would be a 1964/1972 redux more than a 1936/1984 redux as 1964/1972 was a huge d landslide after an close election victory in 1960/1968 while 1936/1984 just built on the landslides of 1932/1980

[Former President tack50]

Assuming Biden wins by 24 points (instead of the 4 points he won by) the map probably looks like this:



Closest states would be Utah, Missouri and Mississippi