Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,074
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« on: June 08, 2004, 01:37:50 PM » |
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Another state where Kerry has little organization-- much less the rest of his campaign.
MISSOURI has an almost mythical reputation in American presidential politics. The candidate who carries it has won the presidency in every election, bar one, since 1900. (The exception was 1956, when Missourans supported Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower.) Although it has only 11 electoral college votes, the Show Me State is routinely showered with attention from presidential candidates and deluged with political ads.
But even by Missouran standards, 2004 looks likely to set records. George Bush has already visited the state 17 times during his presidency; John Kerry has been there seven times. With more than five months to go until polling day, around 13,000 political ads have already been shown on local television stations, according to TMSMI/CMAG, a firm that tracks political advertising. Both campaigns are likely to spend more money per voter in Missouri than in virtually any other state.
The reason is that the state is one of the most evenly divided in the country. In 2000 Missouri saw three very tight races, as well as Florida-style recriminations after judges ordered polling booths in St Louis to stay open longer. Mr Bush beat Al Gore by 50% to 47%, but by the slimmest of margins the state opted for a Democratic governor, Bob Holden, and a Democratic senator, Jean Carnahan (her husband, the official candidate, had died in a plane crash a few weeks before election day). In 2002, a Republican, Jim Talent, turned Mrs Carnahan out of the Senate, but again by a tiny margin.
Sitting smack in the middle of the country, Missouri is a microcosm of America. It reaches from mid-western farm plains to counties that are firmly part of America's South, complete with evangelical churches and country music. Dave Robertson, a political scientist at the University of Missouri-St Louis, describes his state as a combination of the mid-South and the upper mid-west. Its electoral returns, he claims, look much like an amalgam of North Carolina and Michigan.
Missouri's political evolution has closely mirrored broader national trends, particularly a sharp divide between rural and urban voters. The state's two big cities, St Louis and Kansas City, are staunch, pro-union Democratic strongholds with sizeable black minorities but declining populations. In 2000, both voted overwhelmingly for Mr Gore. Outside these two centres, however, Missouri is quintessential conservative “Red America”. In 2000, rural and small-town Missouri voted 58% for Mr Bush.
At the margins lie the suburbs, and many swing voters. Broadly, the inner suburbs are trending Democratic as more blue-collar voters move out of the inner cities. The sprawling outer suburbs, in contrast, trend Republican. In St Charles County, a fast-growing mass of new houses, trimmed lawns and good schools, residents cast more votes than St Louis city in 2000, and they were largely for Mr Bush.
The economic trends of the past four years are likely to reinforce this political breakdown. Missouri has lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000, mainly in the industrial urban centres. Overall, however, the state has fared better than many battleground states. Its unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is far lower than the national average. In recent months, its job growth has been amongst the fastest in the nation.
Nonetheless, the Missouri race will be tight, placing a huge premium on voter turnout, which in turn depends on party organisation. The Republicans, for now, seem to have the upper hand. The Bush/Cheney re-election campaign has had a fully staffed office in Missouri for months. It has appointed volunteer “county directors” in each of the state's 114 counties and claims to have signed up 25,000 grass-roots volunteers already. These volunteers sign up yet more recruits by holding “parties for the president” and setting up shop at local sporting and civic events.
The Democratic effort is more disjointed. New groups, such as America Coming Together, are playing an important role in registering potential Democratic voters. They are working closely with the unions, long an important machine in Missouri politics. Democrats also have thousands of volunteers signed up and co-ordinators in every county. But John Kerry's state campaign director has only just been appointed. Worse, the state Democratic Party is in the midst of bruising internal rifts.
After a lacklustre term, the governor, Bob Holden, is being challenged for the Democratic nomination by the popular state auditor, Claire McCaskill. That primary takes place in August, and most political observers expect a bruising battle. Republicans, meanwhile, are united behind their candidate for governor, Matt Blunt, a 33-year-old who is currently secretary of state and comes from one of the most powerful Republican families in Missouri.
The Republicans are also working hard to push issues that fire up their conservative base. On the last day of its legislative session in May, Missouri's Republican-controlled legislature voted to put a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage on the November ballot. Ostensibly, this was designed to prevent Massachussetts-style decisions by Missouri's judges. But the real purpose is to get a subject on the ballot that will draw conservative voters. Missouri is a socially conservative state: pro-guns, pro-life and firmly against gay marriage. In a close race this November, a few thousand extra social conservatives at the polls could prove decisive.
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