Senate Races Poll of Polls

[Adlai Stevenson]

I have decided to construct a poll of polls for each Senate race, i.e. adding the percentage of support each candidate has had in various polls and dividing it by the number of polls.  The answer should supposedly show the real state of the races.  I have given candidates an approximate percentage based on rounding up the results.

MISSOURI
McCaskill 43.5%
Talent 42.8%

VIRGINIA
Allen 51.0%
Webb 35.7%

ARIZONA
Kyl 50.0%
Pederson 33.3%

MINNESOTA
Klobuchar 46.8%
Kennedy 42.8%

CALIFORNIA
Feinstein 57.0%
Mountjoy 29.3%

NEW JERSEY
Menendez 38.4%
Kean 36.9%

NEW YORK
Clinton 60.0%
Republicans 29.4%

NEBRASKA
Nelson 54.0%
Ricketts 35.5%

FLORIDA
Nelson 56.0%
Harris 29.0%

WASHINGTON
Cantwell 47.8%
McGavick 38.4%

MONTANA
Tester 46.2%
Burns 44.0%

WISCONSIN
Kohl 62.0%
Lorge 25.5%

VERMONT
Sanders 66.0%
Tarrant 26.0%

MAINE
Snowe 69.4%
Hay-Bright 25.0%

PENNSYLVANIA
Casey 50.4%
Santorum 38.0%

MICHIGAN
Stabenow 50.8%
Republicans 36.0%

OHIO
DeWine 45.0%
Brown 42.0%

WEST VIRGINIA
Byrd 58.0%
Raese 32.0%

RHODE ISLAND
Chafee 42.0%
Brown 37.0%

NEW MEXICO
Bingaman 56.0%
McCullough 31.0%


I now seem to have covered most races which have had more than one poll and where the candidates are decided.

[angus]

PENNSYLVANIA
Casey 50.4%
Santorum 38.0%

ouch.  I've also seen a quinnipiac poll that put him 18 points behind Casey.  You gotta figure the dems drafted that guy because of his name alone.  Twelve percent of Americans can even pinpoint Iraq on a globe.  How many Pennsylvanians do you think could tell you that the more famous Casey died six years ago?  Still, it's gotta suck to be Santorum just now.  ("I have to fight against five years of mainstream media, particularly the local press, telling their side of the story...")  Poor guy.  And with Casey taking the tried-and-tested Pennsylvanians position on guns and abortion, Santorum ain't got much ammo left.  Still, he's putting out a Fifty Things You Didn't Know About Rick phamplet in places like the southeastern PA suburbs hoping to come off as a kindler gentler version.  Calling himself a modern day Alfonse D'Amato (aka "senator pothole") who cares about his constituents real needs, and about stuff like AIDS and poor folks.  Any of you keystone staters getting that in the mail yet?   Let's hope he has better luck than his role model:  D'amato was defeated by Chuck Schumer.

Oh, and good job by the way.  How many polls did you count, and did you take all equally weighted regardless of its reputation or margin of error?  Just curious.  Thanks.

[bullmoose88]

PENNSYLVANIA
Casey 50.4%
Santorum 38.0%

ouch.  I've also seen a quinnipiac poll that put him 18 points behind Casey.  You gotta figure the dems drafted that guy because of his name alone.  Twelve percent of Americans can even pinpoint Iraq on a globe.  How many Pennsylvanians do you think could tell you that the more famous Casey died six years ago?  Still, it's gotta suck to be Santorum just now.  ("I have to fight against five years of mainstream media, particularly the local press, telling their side of the story...")  Poor guy.  And with Casey taking the tried-and-tested Pennsylvanians position on guns and abortion, Santorum ain't got much ammo left.  Still, he's putting out a Fifty Things You Didn't Know About Rick phamplet in places like the southeastern PA suburbs hoping to come off as a kindler gentler version.  Calling himself a modern day Alfonse D'Amato (aka "senator pothole") who cares about his constituents real needs, and about stuff like AIDS and poor folks.  Any of you keystone staters getting that in the mail yet?   Let's hope he has better luck than his role model:  D'amato was defeated by Chuck Schumer.

Oh, and good job by the way.  How many polls did you count, and did you take all equally weighted regardless of its reputation or margin of error?  Just curious.  Thanks.

Yeah. I got that mailer man...how did you know about it

[ATFFL]

How far back did you go?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I went as far back as the data went.  I checked so that the polls included the candidates running and they all did so I used every poll conducted poll listed.  I am planning to update this thread in October/November to see the way the Poll of Polls has trended.  Obviously, this is already out of date.

[ATFFL]

There is a problem with your method.  A race now may poll, say, 50-45 for the Democrat.  10 polls in July agree to this.  Come late October, the Republican surges ahead 55-40 in all 10 polls.  However, August and September polls all showed the Dem up 50-45, 10 each month. 

Your method would show 51.25% for the Dem and 47.5% for the Rep.

Which is more likely the real sate of the race, the late October polls which all have the Republican up 15 or the average you produce, which has the Democrat up 3.75%?

Also, it is dangerous to mix registered voter polls with likely voter polls.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yes admittedly its not a foolproof method.  I said that at the start, of course it also is open to the flaws you mentioned.  I guess more than anything else I was just interested to see what the 'Poll of Polls' showed the state of the races to be.  But I agree and admit to everything you said.