Would AZ-SEN 2020 have been winnable for the GOP without McSally?

[VAR]

?

[MT Treasurer]

Absolutely, but not because it’s a Biden +0.3 state in which there’s still a small but non-insignificant percentage of persuadable voters willing to split their ticket for a Republican in a down-ballot race or because it was a year in which Congressional Republicans generally ran ahead of Trump. It was winnable only because Kyrsten ‘my state is the meth labor of democracy’ Sinema wasn’t the Democratic candidate.

(yes, I realize the GOP bench in AZ isn’t the best, but any remotely competent Republican with less baggage than McSally could have narrowly beaten Kelly)

[Roll Roons]

It depends. Arpaio, Ward or anyone in the congressional delegation probably would have lost. But Kimberly Yee or a state senator like Paul Boyer or JD Mesnard could have held it.

[MargieCat]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

[Suburbia]

Yes.

But McSally was a centrist Republican, she ran as a moderate like how Gabby Giffords was a moderate Democrat, etc.

[Greedo punched first]

Yes, but I think Kelly still would have won by a narrower margin.

[brucejoel99]

Yes.

But McSally was a centrist Republican, she ran as a moderate like how Gabby Giffords was a moderate Democrat, etc.

[MargieCat]

Yes.

But McSally was a centrist Republican, she ran as a moderate like how Gabby Giffords was a moderate Democrat, etc.

I don't consider her moderate. She's a typical rank and file republican in a state that values independence. She tied herself too closely to Trump. When I say moderate, I'm talking about a Susan Collins/Lisa Murkowski/Mitt Romney type.

Also, she acted childish in both of her campaigns against Sinema and Kelly. Not exactly bipartisan. And she jumped to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the court when Arizona is not that conservative of a state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes.

But McSally was a centrist Republican, she ran as a moderate like how Gabby Giffords was a moderate Democrat, etc.

We could argue whether McSally was moderate or not in her voting records and ideology, but she ended up coming off as pretty conservative in her rhetoric

[Calthrina950]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Arizona seems to have a strange dichotomy between its Senators and Representatives. On the Senatorial front, it's true that the state has always tended to prefer Senators who are moderate or independent. McCain was of course known as the "Maverick" during his decades in the Senate, because of his willingness to work across the aisle (i.e. VA reform, campaign finance reform) and to break with the Party on certain issues (as he did when voting down the AHCA). Flake, for all his faults, did seem to have a respect for the process while he was in the Senate. Sinema is of course one of the most moderate members of the Senate. Jon Kyl, Flake's predecessor, was a generic establishment Republican. Dennis DeConcini, the last Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate before Sinema, was a moderate. Even "Mr. Conservative" Barry Goldwater had a number of pragmatic tendencies and took more libertarian views on social issues.

However, Arizona has had, and currently does have, Representatives who could be described as ideological extremists. J.D. Hayworth, Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, Trent Franks, David Schweikert, and the notorious Paul Gosar are all examples of this.

[MargieCat]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Arizona seems to have a strange dichotomy between its Senators and Representatives. On the Senatorial front, it's true that the state has always tended to prefer Senators who are moderate or independent. McCain was of course known as the "Maverick" during his decades in the Senate, because of his willingness to work across the aisle (i.e. VA reform, campaign finance reform) and to break with the Party on certain issues (as he did when voting down the AHCA). Flake, for all his faults, did seem to have a respect for the process while he was in the Senate. Sinema is of course one of the most moderate members of the Senate. Jon Kyl, Flake's predecessor, was a generic establishment Republican. Dennis DeConcini, the last Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate before Sinema, was a moderate. Even "Mr. Conservative" Barry Goldwater had a number of pragmatic tendencies and took more libertarian views on social issues.

However, Arizona has had, and currently does have, Representatives who could be described as ideological extremists. J.D. Hayworth, Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, Trent Franks, David Schweikert, and the notorious Paul Gosar are all examples of this.

That's not uncommon. Even really liberal states can have extremely conservative representatives from rural districts and conservatives states often have liberal representatives in their most urban districts.

But if your district doesn't represent the state that well, you lose on a statewide ballot. Paul Gosar ain't winning a senate seat in Arizona.

[xavier110]

Obviously yes. The GOP somehow won every county race in maricopa. Lol

[Frenchrepublican]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Arizona seems to have a strange dichotomy between its Senators and Representatives. On the Senatorial front, it's true that the state has always tended to prefer Senators who are moderate or independent. McCain was of course known as the "Maverick" during his decades in the Senate, because of his willingness to work across the aisle (i.e. VA reform, campaign finance reform) and to break with the Party on certain issues (as he did when voting down the AHCA). Flake, for all his faults, did seem to have a respect for the process while he was in the Senate. Sinema is of course one of the most moderate members of the Senate. Jon Kyl, Flake's predecessor, was a generic establishment Republican. Dennis DeConcini, the last Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate before Sinema, was a moderate. Even "Mr. Conservative" Barry Goldwater had a number of pragmatic tendencies and took more libertarian views on social issues.

However, Arizona has had, and currently does have, Representatives who could be described as ideological extremists. J.D. Hayworth, Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, Trent Franks, David Schweikert, and the notorious Paul Gosar are all examples of this.

Yeah and it's not just a GOP thing, Grijalva and Gallego are both from the extreme left wing of the Democratic party (both of them are members of the CPC)

[Frenchrepublican]

Obviously yes. The GOP somehow won every county race in maricopa. Lol

No, Penzone was reelected to the Sheriff office, so democrats have won one countywide race.

[Frenchrepublican]

It depends. Arpaio, Ward or anyone in the congressional delegation probably would have lost. But Kimberly Yee or a state senator like Paul Boyer or JD Mesnard could have held it.

Yeah, it really depends of who would have been the candidate, Arpaio/Ward would have probably lost by much more than McSally, but someone like Yee could have found enough Biden voters willing to split their ticket in order to prevail.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Flake is not a moderate, yeah he hates Trump but when he ran in 2012 he was not a centrist.

[Calthrina950]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Arizona seems to have a strange dichotomy between its Senators and Representatives. On the Senatorial front, it's true that the state has always tended to prefer Senators who are moderate or independent. McCain was of course known as the "Maverick" during his decades in the Senate, because of his willingness to work across the aisle (i.e. VA reform, campaign finance reform) and to break with the Party on certain issues (as he did when voting down the AHCA). Flake, for all his faults, did seem to have a respect for the process while he was in the Senate. Sinema is of course one of the most moderate members of the Senate. Jon Kyl, Flake's predecessor, was a generic establishment Republican. Dennis DeConcini, the last Democrat to represent Arizona in the Senate before Sinema, was a moderate. Even "Mr. Conservative" Barry Goldwater had a number of pragmatic tendencies and took more libertarian views on social issues.

However, Arizona has had, and currently does have, Representatives who could be described as ideological extremists. J.D. Hayworth, Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, Trent Franks, David Schweikert, and the notorious Paul Gosar are all examples of this.

Yeah and it's not just a GOP thing, Grijalva and Gallego are both from the extreme left wing of the Democratic party (both of them are members of the CPC)

That's true, and I was thinking of Grijalva when I wrote this post, although I didn't ultimately include him. But what distinguishes Grijalva and Gallego from the others is that they aren't prone to insane conspiracy theories and as far as I know, don't have ethical issues, certainly not like those that have plagued Schweikert and which caused Franks to resign from his seat. Nevertheless, I do think the Democrats made the correct decision in clearing the field for Kelly this year, because Gallego could very well have lost to McSally had he obtained the nomination.

[xavier110]

Obviously yes. The GOP somehow won every county race in maricopa. Lol

No, Penzone was reelected to the Sheriff office, so democrats have won one countywide race.

I mean I don’t even really consider that a “D” win. Still the point stands. The GOP did unfathomably well county wide so they clearly could have won the race

[kwabbit]

I think most serious Republicans would have won. Congressional Republicans, even quite conservative ones, did better than Trump in most places, and heavily suburban and urbanized Arizona is the type of place where that over performance would have been strongest. Trump was not a good fit for the state. While McSally isn’t a crazy, the stink on her from losing then being appointed anyway then running again was a massive drag on her campaign. I think basically any high profile state senator or row office holder would’ve been able to over perform Trump and thus win.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sure, if Doug Ducey had decided to run, Kelly would have lost by 5+ points.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Flake is not a moderate, yeah he hates Trump but when he ran in 2012 he was not a centrist.

Flake being called a moderate makes me so mad. Flake is one of the biggest nutters out there when it comes to policy. The end result of his ideology being enacted would enrich the top 10% of America even more at the expense of the working class. Just because he looks "nice" and "respects the process" doesn't make the crazy ideologue a moderate. He's only a moderate if you're one of those social liberal / fiscal conservative (the worst kind of ideology) types

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Then why'd Jan Brewer win?

[MargieCat]

I think a real moderate republican with a bipartisan record could have won.

Arizonans seem to like moderate democrats and republicans. They wouldn't elect someone like Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz on a statewide ballot. The name calling and fingerpointing from McSally did not go over well with Arizonans.

Look at McCain, Flake, Sinema, and probably Kelly. None of them come from the far ends of their party.

Then why'd Jan Brewer win?

She actually had an incumbent advantage.

She had gotten voted in as secretary of state and when Napolitano was appointed to Obama's cabinet, she was automatically promoted to governor I believe (Arizona doesn't have a lieutenant governor). She was elected to a full term during a red wave year and term limited out after only serving one full term. Arizona state law counts a partial term as a full term even though she only served for a small window of Napolitano's term.