What will happen to Tim Ryan in 2022?

[Former President tack50]

From what I've seen on the OH redistricting thread, it seems very likely to me that only 2 or at best 3 Dem seats will be drawn in Ohio (depending on whether a Cincinnati seat gets drawn or not)

Given that the 2 Dem seats will be heavily black seats, they already have names in 2 incumbent representatives: Marcia Fudge and Joyce Beatty.

My guess is that, at best, Tim Ryan gets an Akron based seat and runs there. But said seat would be a swing seat, so he is no better than a tossup even there. Maybe Lean D at most.

If Rs draw a Cincinatti based seat but no Akron one, maybe he can move there, though that is in the opposite end of the state.

[lfromnj]

From what I've seen on the OH redistricting thread, it seems very likely to me that only 2 or at best 3 Dem seats will be drawn in Ohio (depending on whether a Cincinnati seat gets drawn or not)

Given that the 2 Dem seats will be heavily black seats, they already have names in 2 incumbent representatives: Marcia Fudge and Joyce Beatty.

My guess is that, at best, Tim Ryan gets an Akron based seat and runs there. But said seat would be a swing seat, so he is no better than a tossup even there. Maybe Lean D at most.

If Rs draw a Cincinatti based seat but no Akron one, maybe he can move there, though that is in the opposite end of the state.

The Columbus seat isn't heavily black, it would only be like 35% black at maximum, definitely a black influence seat but no more

[ElectionsGuy]

He's likely gone. The best possibility for him is an administrative job.

I was fooling around on dave's redistricting a few days ago, and was trying to gerrymander Ohio with 15 districts to get only 3 Democratic seats. It is actually remarkably easy to do so, and it's even easier to redistrict a Youngstown-based district that votes 10+ points R. I suspect the Ohio GOP is not going to let up on this opportunity.

Are you following the redistricting rules?

You can also actually go all the way and only draw 2  D sinks.

I don't know what the "redistricting rules" are but I just drew as compact as I could. And yes, they can get just 2 Dem districts (one Columbus, one Cleveland) if they continue to split Cincinatti. I don't think they'll do a full Hamilton County district as it's not super Dem. I drew a Cinci to Dayton district as my 3rd, btw but it's not even necessary.

[Suburbia]

Runs for Auditor or Attorney General and wins or loses reelection in a new 2022 district

I think he stays relevant

Ryan would be a good running mate for Harris in 2024---he comes from the Midwest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTkZWtgPey4

[NewYorkExpress]

Either runs for Governor and loses, or runs for Senate and loses to Portman.

[YE]

He files for unemployment benefits.

[lfromnj]

He's likely gone. The best possibility for him is an administrative job.

I was fooling around on dave's redistricting a few days ago, and was trying to gerrymander Ohio with 15 districts to get only 3 Democratic seats. It is actually remarkably easy to do so, and it's even easier to redistrict a Youngstown-based district that votes 10+ points R. I suspect the Ohio GOP is not going to let up on this opportunity.

Are you following the redistricting rules?

You can also actually go all the way and only draw 2  D sinks.

I don't know what the "redistricting rules" are but I just drew as compact as I could. And yes, they can get just 2 Dem districts (one Columbus, one Cleveland) if they continue to split Cincinatti. I don't think they'll do a full Hamilton County district as it's not super Dem. I drew a Cinci to Dayton district as my 3rd, btw but it's not even necessary.

I don't think its physically possible to draw a legal Cinci to Dayton district. It isn't neccesary anyway. A fair Dayton district would have been like Trump +10 in 2016 and like Trump +6 in 2020. Turner is a decent incumbent anyway.
You actually aren't allowed to split Cinci anymore but you can still get the district to Likely R and infact having an R trend.. Anyway the real reason to not keep splitting Hamilton County is because it would kill the golden goose and bring another reform possibly. Also the Ohio supreme court is 3 D  1 S 3 R.. The swing R will probably allow a reasonably clean 12-3 map but a 13-2 that makes an ugly Cinci split would be  illegal.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]