Ranking of Victories

[DistingFlyer]

Combining the electoral vote, popular vote share & popular vote margin, here's a ranking of presidential victories from 1828 to 2020:



Since it's ultimately the electoral college that determines the winner, the ranking is weighted to favor that over the other two factors.

For those just looking for the last couple elections, Joe Biden's 2020 win comes in at #34, while Donald Trump's 2016 win comes in at #45 (same electoral count, but a lower share of the vote and of course a popular margin of -2.1% as opposed to 4.5%).

The highest-ranked win for a non-incumbent is FDR's 1932 victory at #5, while the lowest-ranked re-election is Woodrow Wilson's at #46.

Richard Nixon has the distinction of being both near the top (1972 is #2) and bottom (1968 is #47), while George W. Bush has both of his wins near the bottom (2000 is #48 and 2004 is #43).

[Orser67]

I posted something similar here. I think the one difference is that I also used tipping point state margin, which helped Harding 1920 a lot. I'd love to see this idea developed further.

One thing I find interesting is that almost all of the biggest victories took place between 1920 and 1984. It would be interesting if someone ever tried to adjust for the era (i.e. giving less credit for large landslides in eras that were more prone to them)

[DistingFlyer]

I posted something similar here. I think the one difference is that I also used tipping point state margin, which helped Harding 1920 a lot. I'd love to see this idea developed further.

One thing I find interesting is that almost all of the biggest victories took place between 1920 and 1984. It would be interesting if someone ever tried to adjust for the era (i.e. giving less credit for large landslides in eras that were more prone to them)

I also gave the electoral college extra weight over the popular vote & popular vote margins (the formula was 2*EC+PV+PM), which also brings Harding's ranking way down.

Regarding the 1920s through the 1980s, that's quite right - I suppose it comes down to politics being a little less polarized during that era (at least in comparison to post-Cold War times, as well as, to a degree, the 19th century), as well as the slow crumbling of the Democratic Solid South: Teddy Roosevelt's popular margin would have given him a huge electoral win had it been a quarter-century later, for example, while Bill Clinton in 1996 & Barack Obama in 2008 would have scored 400+ electoral votes had they won a couple decades earlier. The growing number of safe states - both Democratic & Republican - means that each side has a pretty high floor & low ceiling for electoral votes.

The only really big victory (at least in the top dozen) to fall outside of that seven-decade period is Lincoln's 1864 re-election, when virtually all that was left was the Republican north. The only one that comes close is Grant's 1872 re-election, when Reconstruction was still on and Republicans could still win in the South.

One final item, though it's not completely on subject: Lincoln's 1860 victory, earned with the lowest-ever popular vote share for a winner (39.6%), is often ascribed to a split Democratic Party. However, since Lincoln got only 1% of the Southern vote, while getting a very evenly-spread 52% of the Northern vote, even if all three opposition candidates had united behind one ticket (which, admittedly, would have never happened), Lincoln would still have won the electoral vote 173-130 while losing the popular vote 60%-40%.

[Mr. Smith]

Why you favoring the AL vote against JFK? It's normally agreed that he won the popular vote.

[DistingFlyer]

Why you favoring the AL vote against JFK? It's normally agreed that he won the popular vote.

I split the Alabama Democratic vote 6-5, as that's how the electors were split. Not a perfect method, of course, but better (I think) than putting the entire Democratic tally in the Kennedy column when fewer than half of the slate's electors were pledged to vote for him.

[DistingFlyer]

Through the years, these are the elections which held the title of 'biggest victory' at some point:

Biggest Popular Vote Share
55.9% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
56.4% - Teddy Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
60.3% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)
60.8% - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)
61.1% - Lyndon Johnson (Dem) (1964)

Biggest Popular Vote Margin
12.3% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
17.8% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
18.8% - Theodore Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
26.2% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)

Biggest Electoral College Victory
178/261 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
219/288 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
234/294 - William Henry Harrison (Whig) (1840)
254/296 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
213/234 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
523/531 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)

Biggest Overall Victory (as per ranking formula)
#22 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
#15 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
#14 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
  #6 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
  #5 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1932)
  #1 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)


I should probably note that the electoral vote counts (not only here, but in all the US maps I've put up over the years) go by how electors were supposed to vote, rather than how they actually did vote.

[Mr. Smith]

Through the years, these are the elections which held the title of 'biggest victory' at some point:

Biggest Popular Vote Share
55.9% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
56.4% - Teddy Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
60.3% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)
60.8% - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)
61.1% - Lyndon Johnson (Dem) (1964)

Biggest Popular Vote Margin
12.3% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
17.8% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
18.8% - Theodore Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
26.2% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)

Biggest Electoral College Victory
178/261 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
219/288 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
234/294 - William Henry Harrison (Whig) (1840)
254/296 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
213/234 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
523/531 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)

Biggest Overall Victory (as per ranking formula)
#22 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
#15 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
#14 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
  #6 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
  #5 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1932)
  #1 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)


I should probably note that the electoral vote counts (not only here, but in all the US maps I've put up over the years) go by how electors were supposed to vote, rather than how they actually did vote.

What about Nixon's 23+ margin in '72 or LBJ's +22 kicker? Pretty sure Reagan '84 was larer than your second too.

[DistingFlyer]

Through the years, these are the elections which held the title of 'biggest victory' at some point:

Biggest Popular Vote Share
55.9% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
56.4% - Teddy Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
60.3% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)
60.8% - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)
61.1% - Lyndon Johnson (Dem) (1964)

Biggest Popular Vote Margin
12.3% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
17.8% - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
18.8% - Theodore Roosevelt (Rep) (1904)
26.2% - Warren Harding (Rep) (1920)

Biggest Electoral College Victory
178/261 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
219/288 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
234/294 - William Henry Harrison (Whig) (1840)
254/296 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
213/234 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
523/531 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)

Biggest Overall Victory (as per ranking formula)
#22 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1828)
#15 - Andrew Jackson (Dem) (1832)
#14 - Franklin Pierce (Dem) (1852)
  #6 - Abraham Lincoln (Rep) (1864)
  #5 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1932)
  #1 - Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) (1936)


I should probably note that the electoral vote counts (not only here, but in all the US maps I've put up over the years) go by how electors were supposed to vote, rather than how they actually did vote.

What about Nixon's 23+ margin in '72 or LBJ's +22 kicker? Pretty sure Reagan '84 was larer than your second too.

TR's 19% lead was a record for its time, until it was exceeded by Harding's 26% margin in 1920. Nothing has topped that in the years since, though - as you say - there have been margins bigger than Roosevelt's since 1920.