Rate OR-GOV

[Greedo punched first]

There’s a real chance Rs gain a trifecta in Oregon due to Johnson in the Governors race and terrible Dem geography in the legislature (plus some compromises made by Dems to get a favourable CD map)

It’d likely be short lived and quorum busting in Oregon is very powerful, but still interesting nonetheless.

Fr as a Dem myself, Oregon Dems outta win an award for some terrible party optics.

A Republican majority in the legislature would last long if mid-decade redistricting is done.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There’s a real chance Rs gain a trifecta in Oregon due to Johnson in the Governors race and terrible Dem geography in the legislature (plus some compromises made by Dems to get a favourable CD map)

It’d likely be short lived and quorum busting in Oregon is very powerful, but still interesting nonetheless.

Fr as a Dem myself, Oregon Dems outta win an award for some terrible party optics.

A Republican majority in the legislature would last long if mid-decade redistricting is done.

There’s only so much one can do to gerrymander OR legislature even with favourable geography. If you go full pack and crack, you can basically create an R + 1 majority buy with all the Dem seats being Uber safe sinks. Rmbr for attas legistlature, in order to gerrymander you’d need a Euegenr and Corvallis sinks

[Politician]

Tossup, and people who think Johnson will draw more votes from Republicans are just in flat-out denial. Most of the people who vote for Johnson would be Lincoln Project-types in suburban areas who dislike Brown but will never vote for an R.

[lfromnj]

Tossup, and people who think Johnson will draw more votes from Republicans are just in flat-out denial. Most of the people who vote for Johnson would be Lincoln Project-types in suburban areas who dislike Brown but will never vote for an R.

Johnsons district might be "suburban" as in metro Portland but Columbia county isn't really a suburb of Portland. It's logger country.

[Politician]

Tossup, and people who think Johnson will draw more votes from Republicans are just in flat-out denial. Most of the people who vote for Johnson would be Lincoln Project-types in suburban areas who dislike Brown but will never vote for an R.

Johnsons district might be "suburban" as in metro Portland but Columbia county isn't really a suburb of Portland. It's logger country.

I know that, but a center-left candidate such as her would take more votes from Kotek than from Drazan, especially with Brown unpopular.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tossup, and people who think Johnson will draw more votes from Republicans are just in flat-out denial. Most of the people who vote for Johnson would be Lincoln Project-types in suburban areas who dislike Brown but will never vote for an R.

Johnsons district might be "suburban" as in metro Portland but Columbia county isn't really a suburb of Portland. It's logger country.

I know that, but a center-left candidate such as her would take more votes from Kotek than from Drazan, especially with Brown unpopular.

Johnson was a ConservaDem DINO at best.  Calling her a center-left candidate is absurd.

[Xing]

Likely D. It probably won’t be a particularly impressive win for Kotek, and it could even end up being a close call, but it’s just very hard for Republicans to get the votes necessary to win in Oregon, even under very favorable circumstances.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean D. Drazan (or Betsy Johnson) can possibly pull it off, but I still don’t see it. Even with Kate Brown’s apparent unpopularity, it’s still not enough for a Republican to win statewide in Oregon.

No Independent Options?

I really, really doubt Johnson wins. In fact, hot take: she takes less than 15% of the vote.

[Schiff for Senate]

Without polling, we don’t know how much Johnson is affecting the race. Doubt she’ll win, but she’s well funded and has substantial establishment support. Both parties seems detested in Oregon at the moment. I think she’ll win Columbia County, which would be cool. I love to see some third parties represented on election maps.

Yeah, I doubt Johnson wins, but I'd really love for a third-party candidate to win a county. I don't know if Columbia's the county though since it was a double digit Trump county. I honestly expect Johnson to draw about an equal proportion of GOPers and Democrats to her column, so that would mean the swingiest counties in the states would be most conducive to a Johnson win.

[Gracile]

Lean D, I think Johnson will underperform her polling in the end but the race between Kotek and Drazan will remain close.

[kwabbit]

Without polling, we don’t know how much Johnson is affecting the race. Doubt she’ll win, but she’s well funded and has substantial establishment support. Both parties seems detested in Oregon at the moment. I think she’ll win Columbia County, which would be cool. I love to see some third parties represented on election maps.

Yeah, I doubt Johnson wins, but I'd really love for a third-party candidate to win a county. I don't know if Columbia's the county though since it was a double digit Trump county. I honestly expect Johnson to draw about an equal proportion of GOPers and Democrats to her column, so that would mean the swingiest counties in the states would be most conducive to a Johnson win.

Johnson's home county is Columbia. She also represented Tillamook, Clatsop, and rural parts of Washington and Multnomah. The three rural counties have a good chance to be won by Johnson. In other third party runs similar to Johnson's, there has been a huge home district advantage.

I think she'll generally do well in Western rural Oregon. All along the shore, in the Salem metro, etc.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean D.

If Johnson wasn't running it would be likely but if she gains traction an upset cannot be ruled out.

Lean Democratic.

Johnson as a third party candidate poses some danger to a Democratic victory, and Republicans could eke this out with around 44% of the vote when everything goes right. The state's partisan lean will most likely bail Koteck out, but not by much.

Agreed it's probably about Lean D, but I don't buy that Johnson draws votes only or mainly from Democrats. Remember that she was endorsed by the (albeit moderate) GOP nominee from last cycle, Knute Buehler. Though a higher proportion of Democrats than Republicans may go for her, I still highly doubt most of her support comes from the Democrats - probably more evenly split than that.

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely D, closer to safe than Lean

Johnson is a ConservaDem who will probably draw more from Republicans and Dobbs will really hurt Republicans in this state.

Yeah, I don't know about a majority of Johnson's supporters being Republicans, but I really doubt the myth that certain posters believe that most of Johnson's supporters will be Democrats or that she'll be a spoiler who delivers the race to the GOP. She's hardly some liberal - she's really quite a mixed bag politically and a centrist or thereabouts overall, and given that the last GOP nominee for governor endorsed her candidature, I feel that a higher proportion than expected of Johnson's vote will come from Republicans.

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely D. It probably won’t be a particularly impressive win for Kotek, and it could even end up being a close call, but it’s just very hard for Republicans to get the votes necessary to win in Oregon, even under very favorable circumstances.

In practice it's probably about Likely D, you're right, even if I voted Lean D. I don't really see many scenarios in which Drazan actually wins, even if it's not at all crazy to think she comes fairly close to doing so.

[Schiff for Senate]

Without polling, we don’t know how much Johnson is affecting the race. Doubt she’ll win, but she’s well funded and has substantial establishment support. Both parties seems detested in Oregon at the moment. I think she’ll win Columbia County, which would be cool. I love to see some third parties represented on election maps.

Yeah, I doubt Johnson wins, but I'd really love for a third-party candidate to win a county. I don't know if Columbia's the county though since it was a double digit Trump county. I honestly expect Johnson to draw about an equal proportion of GOPers and Democrats to her column, so that would mean the swingiest counties in the states would be most conducive to a Johnson win.

Johnson's home county is Columbia. She also represented Tillamook, Clatsop, and rural parts of Washington and Multnomah. The three rural counties have a good chance to be won by Johnson. In other third party runs similar to Johnson's, there has been a huge home district advantage.

I think she'll generally do well in Western rural Oregon. All along the shore, in the Salem metro, etc.

Fair enough (tbh, after I wrote that post, I figured it's possible you singled out Columbia because it's her home county). But on the whole, sadly, I doubt Johnson wins a single county. My guess is she doesn't even manage 15% statewide, and doesn't break 25% in even Columbia County.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean D, I think Johnson will underperform her polling in the end but the race between Kotek and Drazan will remain close.

Going to say right now that that's probably right. Whatever her final polling average is, she probably does worse than that, if not by a whole lot. I think people are overhyping Johnson. Sure, she'll win some votes, but the few who are saying she could actually win are really overestimating how 'moderate' Oregonians are (in fact, I recall reading on Wikipedia that a study in 2004 showed that OR had the most left-wing Kerry supporters and most right-wing Bush supporters). I expect she doesn't break 15% under any circumstances and she's most probably stuck in the single digits.

[smoltchanov]

Kotek is well to the left of me ideologically, Drazan - well to the right. So, i have only one "horse" in this race...

[theB1ADE]

It's too hard to say atm so I went tossup, Kotek is really far left even for Oregon standards and I don't know how that flies outside of Portland which leads into Johnson and how many independents and moderate Dems.

For Drazan because of the national environment she will get massive numbers in the conservative strongholds, it's Salem, Bend where she must peform to around Bush margins

If she does then she has a chance

[kwabbit]

Lean D, I think Johnson will underperform her polling in the end but the race between Kotek and Drazan will remain close.

Going to say right now that that's probably right. Whatever her final polling average is, she probably does worse than that, if not by a whole lot. I think people are overhyping Johnson. Sure, she'll win some votes, but the few who are saying she could actually win are really overestimating how 'moderate' Oregonians are (in fact, I recall reading on Wikipedia that a study in 2004 showed that OR had the most left-wing Kerry supporters and most right-wing Bush supporters). I expect she doesn't break 15% under any circumstances and she's most probably stuck in the single digits.

I think you're underrating the institutional support for Johnson. She has significant financial (Phil Knight) and political backing (Knute Buehler) that most third party candidates don't. I'm guessing she ends up at 18%, which will be enough to win her district.

Third party candidates sputter out largely because they seem like a wasted vote. If such a candidate can appear competitive, then it's not necessarily guaranteed that they will lose steam. Jesse Ventura's campaign for governor is the standard, and he actually gained support as the campaign went on and outperformed his polling en route to an upset win. Ross Perot is more complicated, since dropped out and reentered, but he also outperformed polling, albeit not polling from the early summer that had him winning.

A high quality public poll would shine a lot of light on this race, but if Johnson has the name recognition, money, and receives coverage from the media that paints her as a realistic option, there's no reason she couldn't get 25% or even win. Partisanship makes it more of an uphill climb, but both parties are very disliked in Oregon at the moment. The 2004 poll might indicate that Oregon is more polarized than the average state, but that was a very long time ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D, I think Johnson will underperform her polling in the end but the race between Kotek and Drazan will remain close.

Going to say right now that that's probably right. Whatever her final polling average is, she probably does worse than that, if not by a whole lot. I think people are overhyping Johnson. Sure, she'll win some votes, but the few who are saying she could actually win are really overestimating how 'moderate' Oregonians are (in fact, I recall reading on Wikipedia that a study in 2004 showed that OR had the most left-wing Kerry supporters and most right-wing Bush supporters). I expect she doesn't break 15% under any circumstances and she's most probably stuck in the single digits.

I think you're underrating the institutional support for Johnson. She has significant financial (Phil Knight) and political backing (Knute Buehler) that most third party candidates don't. I'm guessing she ends up at 18%, which will be enough to win her district.

Third party candidates sputter out largely because they seem like a wasted vote. If such a candidate can appear competitive, then it's not necessarily guaranteed that they will lose steam. Jesse Ventura's campaign for governor is the standard, and he actually gained support as the campaign went on and outperformed his polling en route to an upset win. Ross Perot is more complicated, since dropped out and reentered, but he also outperformed polling, albeit not polling from the early summer that had him winning.

A high quality public poll would shine a lot of light on this race, but if Johnson has the name recognition, money, and receives coverage from the media that paints her as a realistic option, there's no reason she couldn't get 25% or even win. Partisanship makes it more of an uphill climb, but both parties are very disliked in Oregon at the moment. The 2004 poll might indicate that Oregon is more polarized than the average state, but that was a very long time ago.

Not true in 2014 Bill Walker won as an Indy on AK, in an R plus 5 yr, there were two polls 34/30/27 Kotek and Johnson winning and of course Rs take the one with Drazen lead by one pt Ron Wyden is on the ballot too

This isn't Labor Day yet and the GCB is 35/34 but of course Rs take the Biden  Approvals instead of other polls selection POLL

WA, OR, CO and UT are all VBM it's not same day and Betsy Johnson is still a D and can win

[Badger]

Likely D, closer to safe than Lean

Johnson is a ConservaDem who will probably draw more from Republicans and Dobbs will really hurt Republicans in this state.

[NOVA Green]

Tossup, and people who think Johnson will draw more votes from Republicans are just in flat-out denial. Most of the people who vote for Johnson would be Lincoln Project-types in suburban areas who dislike Brown but will never vote for an R.

Johnsons district might be "suburban" as in metro Portland but Columbia county isn't really a suburb of Portland. It's logger country.

Well technically Columbia County would likely be considered more an "Ancestral DEM" Mill County, with logging perhaps being a much smaller component of the current POP, both active and retired...

Still we have to remember that Longview & Kelso are right over the bridge, which also includes a major ILWU Port.

Currently production related jobs account for only 9.4% of the workforce (~ 2k), Farming (1.4% which includes logging).

Meanwhile if we look at numbers such as industrial Occupations, 16.7% of the workforce is in PRODUCTION.

But, still there a lotta workers that either drive over the bridges and/or commute down to work in the factories of Portland and Longview-Kelso Metro.

Sure many folks like to hunt and fish, take the boats out on the rivers, oceans, or lakes and naturally got a big rig to be able to haul the RV's, Campers, and boats.

American Dream has collapsed for many workers in regions with long histories of solid union membership, but yet things seem to be getting a lot worse as the older gens start to look at the financial security of their kids and grandchildren.

Here are a few extremely detailed posts I wrote back after the 2016 GE Election, but unfortunately never got around to updating to include '18 and '20 GE results. 

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5417454#msg5417454

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5421432#msg5421432