Austrian-Style Elections
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Author Topic: Austrian-Style Elections  (Read 351 times)
jimrtex
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« on: December 15, 2020, 05:42:06 AM »

This will be a series that explores an Austrian-style election system that provides political proportionality within states, while maintaining to a large extent local representation. It is a system that is resistant to gerrymandering. Moreover, it can be implemented within the current constitution.

The first step is apportionment of representatives. While this is not a necessary component, it is useful since it provides for larger numbers of representatives, particularly for smaller states and therefore greater proportionality.

I used the cube root rule to determine the number of representatives, but did not use a priority list based on a fixed number of representatives. Rather the number of representatives for a state is based solely on a state's relative share of the total population, and not in comparison to others. This can result in the house declining or increasing slightly from the nominal size. This avoids a couple of paradoxes:

Quota violation: Where a state with a population between N/T and (N+1)/T shares of representatives is awarded N+2 or N-1 representatives. That is a state entitled to 26.5 representatives might be awarded 25 or 28 representatives.

Non-montonicity. It is possible under the current system for a state's relative share of the national population to increase, but its relative share of the national representation to decrease, or vice versa.

A quota is determined by dividing the total population by the nominal number of representatives. A state's share of representation is calculated by dividing the state's population by quota. This results in a mixed fraction of the form n+f where n is an integer and f is a fraction 0 <= f < 1. A state will receive either n or n+1 representatives. A rounding threshold of the geometric mean of (n, n+1) or sqrt( n * (n+1). If n+f >= rounding threshold it is awarded n+1 representatives.

Since each state is rounded independently, the total number of representatives may be more or less than the nominal amount.

For this example I used the 2010 apportionment population (i.e. including federally-affiliated overseas population), and a 2020 domestic population projection based on the July 1, 2019 estimated population.

For 2010, the number of representative is 676. For 2020, the number of representatives is 691. Because of the increase in representatives, 14 states gained representation, while 9 lost. While California gained a representative, its share of the total declined, just as its share of the total population declined slightly.

State20102020Change
California82831
Texas55627
Florida41465
New York4241-1
Pennsylvania2827-1
Illinois2827-1
Ohio2525
Georgia21221
North Carolina21221
Michigan2221-1
New Jersey1919
Virginia1818
Washington15161
Arizona14151
Massachusetts14151
Tennessee1414
Indiana1414
Missouri1313
Maryland1313
Wisconsin1212
Colorado11121
Minnesota1212
South Carolina10111
Alabama1110-1
Louisiana1010
Kentucky109-1
Oregon891
Oklahoma88
Connecticut87-1
Utah671
Iowa77
Nevada671
Arkansas66
Mississippi76-1
Kansas66
New Mexico54-1
Nebraska44
Idaho341
West Virginia44
Hawaii33
New Hampshire33
Maine33
Montana22
Rhode Island22
Delaware22
South Dakota22
North Dakota22
Alaska22
Vermont11
Wyoming11
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2020, 01:02:40 PM »

Though the apportionment is based on resident population, elections are based on voters. Therefore if we want statewide proportionality, districts should take into account voters not population. An area with a large proportion of non-citizens or children should not be given extra political clout.

The Constitution says that representatives are chosen by the People of each state, but also provides who the actual choosers are: the voters (eligible to vote for the larger chamber of the legislature).

This map shows the 2008 turnout in California divided by the 82 representatives apportioned to the state.

Each representative will represent 165,647 (2008) voters.



We can think of San Diego being able to elect 7.459 representatives. But rather than chopping off part of the county to get to 7 representatives, or adding parts of other counties to get to 8, we can simply let residents vote for 7 (or 6) San Diego representatives, and then use the residual votes to elect additional members in the southern California area., which might include an additional representative from San Diego.

The results will be politically proportional, and will have a strong element of geographical proportionality.
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