Scenarios for a third major party?

[Jacobtm]

What are some scenarios you could imagine that would allow for the Democrats and Republicans to still exist, while a third party comes up and gains prominance.

Would it have to be a regional thing? An offshoot of disgruntled extremists from one of the parties? A merging of moderates from both?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What you need is for enough politicians to break off 1st.  It would really help this if Lieberman won as an Independent (I still think this will happen) & TX went Ind. in the Gubernatorial race (I strongly doubt).  I think if we keep getting Inds., etc... into the Senate and governor positions, it will open a door for a 3rd party rise.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Space aliens come and edit all our memories so that we all vote John Hagelin for President.

[MODU]

There is enough backing in the population to support a strong centrist candidate if one were to arise.  Many people are tired of the Dems vs Reps mentallity which forces people to pick a side.  Balance is needed, and that will only occur when someone strong enough (and with enough money) steps up to the mic.  It will most likely be a political outsider, from the business community, which worked his way up from being a regular employee to become a CEO, CFO, or owner of a corporation.

[John Dibble]

If approval voting or perhaps some other alternative were to be implemented, it would possibly happen. One of the biggest obstacles in our current system is that most people feel that voting for a third party or independent candidate is a waste of their vote, so a system that gets around that and allows them to vote for the third party candidate without fear of it going to waste would be a serious step forward.

[Colin]

There is enough backing in the population to support a strong centrist candidate if one were to arise.  Many people are tired of the Dems vs Reps mentallity which forces people to pick a side.  Balance is needed, and that will only occur when someone strong enough (and with enough money) steps up to the mic.  It will most likely be a political outsider, from the business community, which worked his way up from being a regular employee to become a CEO, CFO, or owner of a corporation.

The problem is that what most people call centrists are placed into two catagories that really wouldn't work as a coherent party, moderate populists and moderate libertarians. Most of the so-called Republican moderates or Republican-leaning independents fit into the second catagory whereas the Moderate Democrats and their associated group of independents are mostly moderate populists. These two sides could come together for an election or two but their being in the same party would not be conducive to the creation of a coherent party for centrists.

Personally the best scenario would be for some sort of Populist centrist party to come around. A party of the Frodos, Daves, and Cosmo Kramers of the world. Focused on the south and mostly having the socially conservative economically moderate left stance that plays well in the South and in parts of the West. The South itself has always been good territory for homegrown third parties. I mean you can basically look at the Conservative and Blue Dog Democrats from the South after the Civil War as almost being a third party in themselves completely unaffected by the prevailing nature of the Democratic party as a whole.

[NewFederalist]

Space aliens come and edit all our memories so that we all vote John Hagelin for President.

Wow! Today is YOUR day for humor! Rock on!

[David S]

Someone with lots of dough like Ross Perot and a message people can relate to.

[ag]

If you are talking a long-term equilibrium (that is, more than one or two election cycles) in which all three parties exist, it would require a change of the Constitution, to abolish or radically downgrade the office of the President, or, at the very least, institute a popular vote run-off among the top two candidates. Alternatively, the plurality FPTP for the Congressional election could be replaced, introducing some sort of the PR component. Given the combination of the presidential form of government and the fact, that almost all elections in the US are run on the FPTP basis, a stable three-party configuration is impossible.  An existing party might be replaced, though, and the transition could look like a three-party system. It won't last, though.

[NewFederalist]

Check out the 1880's to early 1890's. That was when the only true third party (not counting the Republicans who replaced the Whigs) in US history emerged. The People's Party was not a splinter of the two major parties and largely came about as a consolidation of Greenbackers and various farmer and labor organizations who were disenfranchised. Looking at today's political landscape I'm not certain that enough people have been overlooked by both major parties to put together a coalition like that. The two parties pay just enough lip service to various groups no matter how extreme to prevent such a thing from happening again. The best chance is from the "overlooked" center but it is also the easiest to close ranks against and thus render a third party unnecessary. I am not optimistic a serious third party will develop. A well financed independent presidential ticket maybe but not a party.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If approval voting or perhaps some other alternative were to be implemented, it would possibly happen. One of the biggest obstacles in our current system is that most people feel that voting for a third party or independent candidate is a waste of their vote, so a system that gets around that and allows them to vote for the third party candidate without fear of it going to waste would be a serious step forward.

Right, but if Lieberman gets elected as an Ind., and Vermont has an Ind., what we'd need is another Ross Perot in 2008 combined w/ the fact that there's no incumbent, and you could see 3rd party politicians getting elected.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Third parties would be good

[MODU]

Third parties would be good

[Jacobtm]

What I'm thinking is you might have the possibility of regional third parties in places where 1 of the 2 main parties is already nominalized. Places where the only real contest is the Democratic or Republican primaries.

In the north-east and west coast, maybe you see some greens getting elected because the Democrats are too moderate. In the South-West, maybe you see some Libertarians elected because the Repubilcans are too authoritarian. Nothing on a national scale, but enough to force us to have coalition governments.

But you know, it'd take some SERIOUS money for whichever parties wanna make head-way.

[ag]

What I'm thinking is you might have the possibility of regional third parties in places where 1 of the 2 main parties is already nominalized. Places where the only real contest is the Democratic or Republican primaries.

That indeed can happen. But the national presidential election will still take care of the preservation of the two national parties, even in those localities, even if they are replaced in a local election. And even the local  election will be still a two-party affair, just with a different cast.