How did those states became swing states?

[thebeloitmoderate]

For a huge long time Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have been deep R states even as both states diversified. However in 2020 Biden won 2 of the aforementioned states while Trump won the other 2 states. But why those 4 states became Swing states.
We all know Ohio and Iowa have been getting redder and redder.

[TheReckoning]

One word: Demographics

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ye, all of these states have had significant growth in their cities throughout the last decade, even as rural areas may have gotten redder. Infact, in all cases the fastest growing parts of the state are the metro(s).

[thebeloitmoderate]

A shocking example on how NC has still voted for Trump is that Robeson county a diverse rural county with a significant black and Native population has shifted more R than in 2016.

[Sol]

A shocking example on how NC has still voted for Trump is that Robeson county a diverse rural county with a significant black and Native population has shifted more R than in 2016.

Most of that has to do with shifts in the Lumbee vote, which was even stronger than the shifts among white and Black voters.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Texas and NC (albeit likely trending blue) are not at all swing states. Being competitive enough to make the other party try makes it a battleground state. A swing state needs to be close enough to swing the national election without any substantial change in the environment. There’s currently no legitimate path for a Dem to win Texas even in a national landslide. Under 2020 electorate, they would have needed to win all the collar counties by double digits. Similarly, North Carolina needs a D+7 type environment to win.

As far as the other two, demographic change combined with having a high number of people that Trump in particular struggled with

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

TX isn't a swing state, and NC isn't really trending any more.

[kwabbit]

In Arizona, it wasn't necessarily the growth of the Phoenix metro that hurt Republicans, given that they've controlled the state with Phoenix as the major source of population for a long time. It was, as in the case of most of these other states, a White suburban swing against the Trump-controlled GOP. The Phoenix metro isn't all that educated, but it was educated enough to cause a few point swing and give Biden the victory. An underrated factor in Arizona trending left is that it's 6% Mormon, a relatively high number. Given how large the anti-Trump swings among Mormons have been, that was enough to cause his loss in Arizona.

North Carolina has very weak trends. The GOP has lost a lot of ground in the suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte, but rural areas have swung hard right and the exurban areas are growing rapidly and have remained as GOP as ever.

Texas is mostly erosion of educated suburban Whites, especially in North Dallas and the Dallas collar counties. The Hispanic population has increased, as has the Asian population, but the swing has been more about weakening among formerly rock solid GOP demographics like educated Southern suburbanites.

Georgia is most clear. Atlanta has been serving as a magnet for both Black voters all across the nation and White yuppies. The reason that Georgia's trends have been so strong and so immutable is that the bulk of the cause has been the Blackening of the Atlanta suburbs. Given that an additional Black voter is essentially an additional Democratic voter, it's no surprise that the area has rapidly swung left. Cobb has gone from 24% Black by Voting age pop to 28%, Gwinnett from 22% to 28%, Henry from 35% to 50%.

The 'Demographics is Destiny' thesis always had Hispanic voters in mind, but as they've swung R they have not made the difference. It's a little ironic that the concept was so much about minority growth, when in the end it's Democratic gains among educated White people that has powered leftward shifts in Texas, Arizona, etc.

[If my soul was made of stone]

An underrated factor in Arizona trending left is that it's 6% Mormon, a relatively high number. Given how large the anti-Trump swings among Mormons have been, that was enough to cause his loss in Arizona.

Graham, Arizona's most Mormon county, actually swung significantly towards Trump in 2020 and gave him its strongest ever margin for a GOP presidential candidate. Apache and Navajo, which round out the top three, are heavily polarized between the Navajo and Hopi reservations and the southern white Mormon parts, but increased Native turnout improved raw vote margins for Biden enough to carry the state despite underwhelming movement among conservative Maricopa suburbanites. Maricopa Mormons may well be more liberal, but while Mormons now vote far more Democratic than they did prior to 2016 there was possibly a slight Republican swing among them somewhat akin to that seen in strong McMullin 2016 counties.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Texas is mostly erosion of educated suburban Whites, especially in North Dallas and the Dallas collar counties. The Hispanic population has increased, as has the Asian population, but the swing has been more about weakening among formerly rock solid GOP demographics like educated Southern suburbanites.

Georgia is most clear. Atlanta has been serving as a magnet for both Black voters all across the nation and White yuppies. The reason that Georgia's trends have been so strong and so immutable is that the bulk of the cause has been the Blackening of the Atlanta suburbs. Given that an additional Black voter is essentially an additional Democratic voter, it's no surprise that the area has rapidly swung left. Cobb has gone from 24% Black by Voting age pop to 28%, Gwinnett from 22% to 28%, Henry from 35% to 50%.

The 'Demographics is Destiny' thesis always had Hispanic voters in mind, but as they've swung R they have not made the difference. It's a little ironic that the concept was so much about minority growth, when in the end it's Democratic gains among educated White people that has powered leftward shifts in Texas, Arizona, etc.

Broadly agree with your post, but R swings among D-leaning groups can still translate into D raw vote gains if there are sufficiently large increases in turnout among said groups. It’s plausible this happened in Maricopa County, and almost certainly happened in Gwinnett County.

Anddddd...  Los Angeles County swung R, by noticeably more than either SF or Santa Clara (San Jose).

Except LA added 2 votes for biden for every Trump vote which still moves CA to the left.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A shocking example on how NC has still voted for Trump is that Robeson county a diverse rural county with a significant black and Native population has shifted more R than in 2016.

It’s cause the Trump admin finally recognized the Lumbee tribe as a tribe

[coloradocowboi]

Texas is mostly erosion of educated suburban Whites, especially in North Dallas and the Dallas collar counties. The Hispanic population has increased, as has the Asian population, but the swing has been more about weakening among formerly rock solid GOP demographics like educated Southern suburbanites.

Georgia is most clear. Atlanta has been serving as a magnet for both Black voters all across the nation and White yuppies. The reason that Georgia's trends have been so strong and so immutable is that the bulk of the cause has been the Blackening of the Atlanta suburbs. Given that an additional Black voter is essentially an additional Democratic voter, it's no surprise that the area has rapidly swung left. Cobb has gone from 24% Black by Voting age pop to 28%, Gwinnett from 22% to 28%, Henry from 35% to 50%.

The 'Demographics is Destiny' thesis always had Hispanic voters in mind, but as they've swung R they have not made the difference. It's a little ironic that the concept was so much about minority growth, when in the end it's Democratic gains among educated White people that has powered leftward shifts in Texas, Arizona, etc.

Broadly agree with your post, but R swings among D-leaning groups can still translate into D raw vote gains if there are sufficiently large increases in turnout among said groups. It’s plausible this happened in Maricopa County, and almost certainly happened in Gwinnett County.

Anddddd...  Los Angeles County swung R, by noticeably more than either SF or Santa Clara (San Jose).

Except LA added 2 votes for biden for every Trump vote which still moves CA to the left.

The "Hispanics have swung R" thesis misses the mark precisely because of what you're mentioning too. The swings outside of places that have a conservative Hispanic culture, e.g. South Florida, Southern Colorado, the RGV in Texas, were small and the artifact of massive turnout increases nationwide. In Los Angeles, for instance, I would wager they came almost exclusively from the evangelical, Hispanic population, who is politically disengaged most of the time. Ironically, in lower turnout elections, and we saw this in the 2021 recall, Latinos vote more monolithically Dem because the most politically engaged Latinos are probably Democrats. This shouldn't surprise anyone given the constant and provocative anti-immigrant rhetoric the GOP throws to its base. So, I'll just say that one lesson from California--which was btw a swing state long before these others and changed most notably after anti-immigrant Prop 187 was passed--is that the long term trends with *Mexican Americans* in particular don't look good for the GOP. This is bad because they make up about 2/3 of the Latin population in the US and outside of places like the RGV/Southern Colorado have more recent ties to Mexico and therefore more sensitivity toward immigration issues. They also remain one of the fastest growing communities that new voters originate in. Obviously, this will hurt the GOP in Arizona and Nevada the most, but could become a liability long term in Texas and has made them effectively non-competitive in most elections in former swing states Colorado and New Mexico. This is their Achilles' heel imo, and why Texas is absolutely a swing state. Dems haven't won yet, but that was also true in Georgia until last year and even was true in Colorado for several cycles (1998-2004) before the tide turned there. Needless to say, it turned fast.

But what Colorado demonstrates is that where the GOP has seen its fortunes deteriorate most are with educated voters. Again, given their increasingly reactionary stance on science and secularism, it's not surprising. From my experience, above all else in CO, it was gay rights and abortion that sealed their fate. Where I grew up in Broomfield/Westminster, everyone was a Republican until about  The GOP base there is rabidly evangelical, while the general populace is very secular and scientific (hell, even spiritual more than religious). I'm surprised more people haven't mentioned age, because as recently as 2004 the GOP was competitive with young people. But their brand with millennials and Gen Z is toxic, in large part because these generations are secular culturally and economically alienated. The mix of neoliberal economics and Christian nationalism is thus anathema in a state like Colorado, with a young, urban, and educated population. Similar states in the South, e.g. Georgia and NC, are facing similar dynamics, although I think we saw in Virginia last year that things work different in the South given its different culture. It will be very interesting to see, but I am gonna guess now that regardless of national trends CO will vote significantly to the left of its supposed political sister, VA.

Ultimately, it's less about demographics than it is about culture though. In places nearer to the center of pop-culture gravity, e.g. more urban, more youthful, more diverse, many of the things that the GOP stands for, e.g. doing nothing about climate change, demonizing immigrants or BLM, policing people's gender and sexuality, are unacceptable now. As the generation that adheres to these values ages and takes their civic duty more seriously, we will see that a GOP on the far right edge of politics has a harder time winning just about everywhere unless ofc they moderate. And, in the meanwhile, the fact that they continue to move to the right while the mainstream culture of populous, urban states in the West and South move left is making a number of states that were sure bets for them a decade ago more competitive now.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Texas is mostly erosion of educated suburban Whites, especially in North Dallas and the Dallas collar counties. The Hispanic population has increased, as has the Asian population, but the swing has been more about weakening among formerly rock solid GOP demographics like educated Southern suburbanites.

Georgia is most clear. Atlanta has been serving as a magnet for both Black voters all across the nation and White yuppies. The reason that Georgia's trends have been so strong and so immutable is that the bulk of the cause has been the Blackening of the Atlanta suburbs. Given that an additional Black voter is essentially an additional Democratic voter, it's no surprise that the area has rapidly swung left. Cobb has gone from 24% Black by Voting age pop to 28%, Gwinnett from 22% to 28%, Henry from 35% to 50%.

The 'Demographics is Destiny' thesis always had Hispanic voters in mind, but as they've swung R they have not made the difference. It's a little ironic that the concept was so much about minority growth, when in the end it's Democratic gains among educated White people that has powered leftward shifts in Texas, Arizona, etc.

Broadly agree with your post, but R swings among D-leaning groups can still translate into D raw vote gains if there are sufficiently large increases in turnout among said groups. It’s plausible this happened in Maricopa County, and almost certainly happened in Gwinnett County.

Anddddd...  Los Angeles County swung R, by noticeably more than either SF or Santa Clara (San Jose).

Except LA added 2 votes for biden for every Trump vote which still moves CA to the left.

The "Hispanics have swung R" thesis misses the mark precisely because of what you're mentioning too. The swings outside of places that have a conservative Hispanic culture, e.g. South Florida, Southern Colorado, the RGV in Texas, were small and the artifact of massive turnout increases nationwide. In Los Angeles, for instance, I would wager they came almost exclusively from the evangelical, Hispanic population, who is politically disengaged most of the time. Ironically, in lower turnout elections, and we saw this in the 2021 recall, Latinos vote more monolithically Dem because the most politically engaged Latinos are probably Democrats. This shouldn't surprise anyone given the constant and provocative anti-immigrant rhetoric the GOP throws to its base. So, I'll just say that one lesson from California--which was btw a swing state long before these others and changed most notably after anti-immigrant Prop 187 was passed--is that the long term trends with *Mexican Americans* in particular don't look good for the GOP. This is bad because they make up about 2/3 of the Latin population in the US and outside of places like the RGV/Southern Colorado have more recent ties to Mexico and therefore more sensitivity toward immigration issues. They also remain one of the fastest growing communities that new voters originate in. Obviously, this will hurt the GOP in Arizona and Nevada the most, but could become a liability long term in Texas and has made them effectively non-competitive in most elections in former swing states Colorado and New Mexico. This is their Achilles' heel imo, and why Texas is absolutely a swing state. Dems haven't won yet, but that was also true in Georgia until last year and even was true in Colorado for several cycles (1998-2004) before the tide turned there. Needless to say, it turned fast.

But what Colorado demonstrates is that where the GOP has seen its fortunes deteriorate most are with educated voters. Again, given their increasingly reactionary stance on science and secularism, it's not surprising. From my experience, above all else in CO, it was gay rights and abortion that sealed their fate. Where I grew up in Broomfield/Westminster, everyone was a Republican until about  The GOP base there is rabidly evangelical, while the general populace is very secular and scientific (hell, even spiritual more than religious). I'm surprised more people haven't mentioned age, because as recently as 2004 the GOP was competitive with young people. But their brand with millennials and Gen Z is toxic, in large part because these generations are secular culturally and economically alienated. The mix of neoliberal economics and Christian nationalism is thus anathema in a state like Colorado, with a young, urban, and educated population. Similar states in the South, e.g. Georgia and NC, are facing similar dynamics, although I think we saw in Virginia last year that things work different in the South given its different culture. It will be very interesting to see, but I am gonna guess now that regardless of national trends CO will vote significantly to the left of its supposed political sister, VA.

Ultimately, it's less about demographics than it is about culture though. In places nearer to the center of pop-culture gravity, e.g. more urban, more youthful, more diverse, many of the things that the GOP stands for, e.g. doing nothing about climate change, demonizing immigrants or BLM, policing people's gender and sexuality, are unacceptable now. As the generation that adheres to these values ages and takes their civic duty more seriously, we will see that a GOP on the far right edge of politics has a harder time winning just about everywhere unless ofc they moderate. And, in the meanwhile, the fact that they continue to move to the right while the mainstream culture of populous, urban states in the West and South move left is making a number of states that were sure bets for them a decade ago more competitive now.

Enjoy that evasive emerging democrat majority we’ve been waiting 30 years for. Meanwhile come back when Texas is within 5 in a neutral cycle