Article on NJ swings in 2020 election

[jman123]

https://nj1015.com/nj-less-divided-blue-counties-got-redder-while-red-ones-got-bluer/?fbclid=IwAR25FoBFtK24ftpawUPQB5uk5tElJU9wKrKtcjr0t_hkXFprGeIRGbDmpw4

What are your thoughts? NJ suburbs swung hard Biden. Even NJ rural areas swung Biden while inner cities with hispanics and other minorities swung trump. Hudson County especially in the majority hispanic areas of said county swung on average 10 points to Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm not that surprised, but as someone who regularly goes to and is familiar with Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken, I'm pretty shocked that they swung to Trump, but I guess it matches a lot of the other trends we saw in places like Philly and NYC. I don't think these communities got redder from 2016 per se, but the people who showed up in the communities were redder than in 2016. Not surprised about the rest of NJ though; Trump is really hated throughout the state, including in traditionally conservative areas. It'll be interesting to see if the GOP will be able to bring NJ to being on the fringe of being competative again, especially if they're gaining in the urban parts of the state, but Trumpism as a whole really doesn't bode well in suburban NJ.

[lfromnj]

I'm not that surprised, but as someone who regularly goes to and is familiar with Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken, I'm pretty shocked that they swung to Trump, but I guess it matches a lot of the other trends we saw in places like Philly and NYC. I don't think these communities got redder from 2016 per se, but the people who showed up in the communities were redder than in 2016. Not surprised about the rest of NJ though; Trump is really hated throughout the state, including in traditionally conservative areas. It'll be interesting to see if the GOP will be able to bring NJ to being on the fringe of being competative again, especially if they're gaining in the urban parts of the state, but Trumpism as a whole really doesn't bode well in suburban NJ.

I doubt Hoboken swung towards Trump .

[wbrocks67]

I'm not that surprised, but as someone who regularly goes to and is familiar with Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken, I'm pretty shocked that they swung to Trump, but I guess it matches a lot of the other trends we saw in places like Philly and NYC. I don't think these communities got redder from 2016 per se, but the people who showed up in the communities were redder than in 2016. Not surprised about the rest of NJ though; Trump is really hated throughout the state, including in traditionally conservative areas. It'll be interesting to see if the GOP will be able to bring NJ to being on the fringe of being competative again, especially if they're gaining in the urban parts of the state, but Trumpism as a whole really doesn't bode well in suburban NJ.

It's interesting that NJ has been pretty static for a while now. Even Guadagno, who is as close to a generic R as possible, and Murphy a generic D, still lost by 14 in 2017.

Clinton +14
Murphy +13.5
Biden +15.9

Not sure what Jersey Rs can really do to claw back

[LabourJersey]

I'm not that surprised, but as someone who regularly goes to and is familiar with Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken, I'm pretty shocked that they swung to Trump, but I guess it matches a lot of the other trends we saw in places like Philly and NYC. I don't think these communities got redder from 2016 per se, but the people who showed up in the communities were redder than in 2016. Not surprised about the rest of NJ though; Trump is really hated throughout the state, including in traditionally conservative areas. It'll be interesting to see if the GOP will be able to bring NJ to being on the fringe of being competative again, especially if they're gaining in the urban parts of the state, but Trumpism as a whole really doesn't bode well in suburban NJ.

It's interesting that NJ has been pretty static for a while now. Even Guadagno, who is as close to a generic R as possible, and Murphy a generic D, still lost by 14 in 2017.

Clinton +14
Murphy +13.5
Biden +15.9

Not sure what Jersey Rs can really do to claw back

Murphy was a little stronger than a Generic D due to the huge amounts of money he had to spend on ads and boost his name recognition, and Guadagno was kind of weak due to her ties with Christie.

If anything Murphy underperformed in 2017--most people though he would win by 20. But I think it's clear there's a narrow-ish band of Democratic performance statewide of 11-19 points under the current political climate. No doubt that'll be extremely tough for the GOP to crack.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I'm not that surprised, but as someone who regularly goes to and is familiar with Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken, I'm pretty shocked that they swung to Trump, but I guess it matches a lot of the other trends we saw in places like Philly and NYC. I don't think these communities got redder from 2016 per se, but the people who showed up in the communities were redder than in 2016.

This is also what I suspect happened in California and the Rio Grande Valley.