The trend of OH-13..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan's days are numbered. Statewide run beckons in 2022.. ?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

[lfromnj]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

[S019]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

They will cede both that sink and preserve Kaptur, because if they don't Dems will push for a real commission. Ryan is gone though and would be gone under any map that is not an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

[lfromnj]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

At the very least they need 3 D districts, probably 4, though it largely depends upon if OH loses it's 16th district. The Cleveland area needs at least 2 districts to make a secure gerrymander, and Columbus obviously can't really be cracked. Cracking Cinci technically possible, and they might go for it, but it would be very risky. If the the 16th seat is lost it'll be a bit easier to crack Cinci since OH-2 or it's equivalent will be able to stretch further into appalachia.

[politicallefty]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If it'd fell, it might've been the political opposite of IL-06.

I think it's worth noting, as I did in another topic, that the Ohio Supreme Court is the final determiner and court of original jurisdiction for redistricting. Democrats have narrowed it to 4R-3D and the sitting Republican Chief Justice joined dissents against Republican gerrymandering after 2010. There's some serious potential for the redistricting reform to actually have some teeth.

[lfromnj]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

At the very least they need 3 D districts, probably 4, though it largely depends upon if OH loses it's 16th district. The Cleveland area needs at least 2 districts to make a secure gerrymander, and Columbus obviously can't really be cracked. Cracking Cinci technically possible, and they might go for it, but it would be very risky. If the the 16th seat is lost it'll be a bit easier to crack Cinci since OH-2 or it's equivalent will be able to stretch further into appalachia.

No it doesn't.  A 13-2 map is easily mathematically possible and all districts would be pretty safe.

Infact once you draw a central Cuyahoga compact district the rest of the county voted for Trump.

There are political issues such as a new commision or justice O'Connor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

At the very least they need 3 D districts, probably 4, though it largely depends upon if OH loses it's 16th district. The Cleveland area needs at least 2 districts to make a secure gerrymander, and Columbus obviously can't really be cracked. Cracking Cinci technically possible, and they might go for it, but it would be very risky. If the the 16th seat is lost it'll be a bit easier to crack Cinci since OH-2 or it's equivalent will be able to stretch further into appalachia.

No it doesn't.  A 13-2 map is easily mathematically possible and all districts would be pretty safe.

Infact once you draw a central Cuyahoga compact district the rest of the county voted for Trump.

Technically, yes, it is mathematically possible, but would be very difficult to achieve without violating basic redistricting rules or the OH SC overturning it.

[lfromnj]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

At the very least they need 3 D districts, probably 4, though it largely depends upon if OH loses it's 16th district. The Cleveland area needs at least 2 districts to make a secure gerrymander, and Columbus obviously can't really be cracked. Cracking Cinci technically possible, and they might go for it, but it would be very risky. If the the 16th seat is lost it'll be a bit easier to crack Cinci since OH-2 or it's equivalent will be able to stretch further into appalachia.

No it doesn't.  A 13-2 map is easily mathematically possible and all districts would be pretty safe.

Infact once you draw a central Cuyahoga compact district the rest of the county voted for Trump.

Technically, yes, it is mathematically possible, but would be very difficult to achieve without violating basic redistricting rules or the OH SC overturning it.

It wouldn't violate any basic redistricting rule of atleast the objective ones. The more subjective ones like is it a major partisan advantage would be violated but you can still follow county/city rules easily. However yes judges could strike it down/a new commission could come up.

[politicallefty]

I think we'll have to see what they think they can get away with. There are also compactness requirements in the amendment. It doesn't specify what they are, but I don't see how any reasonable court could rule for a district that doesn't keep a Cincinnati-based district within Hamilton County.

Does anyone think they're actually going to pass a 10-year plan? I have to wonder what sort of bipartisan compromise that would require.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

bandaid fix

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

They will cede both that sink and preserve Kaptur, because if they don't Dems will push for a real commission. Ryan is gone though and would be gone under any map that is not an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.

Uh, Kaptur's seat literally is a pro-Dem gerrymander. Any reasonable person can see how a compact NW Ohio seat is fair.

[Frenchrepublican]

What’s interesting is that if you draw a fair map, democrats would obviously gain a Cincinnati based seat but at the same time Kaptur would end up in a very competitive (Wood/Sandusky/Ottawa/Lucas/Hancock/Fulton) seat.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1332506260571377664

Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Mahoning, Rode the Ohio Democrats.

[Torie]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

They will cede both that sink and preserve Kaptur, because if they don't Dems will push for a real commission. Ryan is gone though and would be gone under any map that is not an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.

Do you think a Toledo based CD drawn like the below would trigger a feeding frenzy for a commission?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was the best 13-2 map I could come up with:



Still pretty messy and vulnerable to backfire

[Alcibiades]

Pretty crazy how a district that was supposed to be a D pack is now becoming a swing seat. I suspect OH Rs will get rid of this district but will have to do a Cincinnati Sink.

If you mean have to do a Cinci sink to avoid risk of a dummymander?

Absolutely not and its a waste of votes. However they might do it for political reasons within Ohio.

I would argue that a stable map would have to have at least a Cinci swing district. Despite Democrats doing worse in OH throughout this past decade, Hamilton county has taken a pretty noticeable shift left. Biden came pretty close to winning OH-1, and if you make OH-2 much closer, it starts to become in play. The main issue for the GOP is that when you split Hamilton County, there's becoming less roo to cancel out Cinci to the North. I would think at the end of the day it's better to do a swing/lean D district with a safe/likely R district than 2 districts that have great potential to become swing districts.

You put Cinci with some rural Appalachian counties. Would be a fairly stable/polarized district at Trump +9 yet only Mccain +2 or so due the Appalachian trend. The suburbs can go north and start from a more secure baseline. A Cinci crack should remain fairly secure IMO. The only risk is political as the rest of Ohio can be made fairly cleanly yet limit Dems to 2 seats. Taking out Marcy Kaptur and Ryan is pretty easy and clean. Ryan just requires a fair map besides some movement in Akron. Kaptur just requires pairing Toledo in a very compact Western Ohio seat.

At the very least they need 3 D districts, probably 4, though it largely depends upon if OH loses it's 16th district. The Cleveland area needs at least 2 districts to make a secure gerrymander, and Columbus obviously can't really be cracked. Cracking Cinci technically possible, and they might go for it, but it would be very risky. If the the 16th seat is lost it'll be a bit easier to crack Cinci since OH-2 or it's equivalent will be able to stretch further into appalachia.

No it doesn't.  A 13-2 map is easily mathematically possible and all districts would be pretty safe.

Infact once you draw a central Cuyahoga compact district the rest of the county voted for Trump.

Technically, yes, it is mathematically possible, but would be very difficult to achieve without violating basic redistricting rules or the OH SC overturning it.

It wouldn't violate any basic redistricting rule of atleast the objective ones. The more subjective ones like is it a major partisan advantage would be violated but you can still follow county/city rules easily. However yes judges could strike it down/a new commission could come up.

One would think the main risk of pursuing a 13-2 map would be that its shocking lopsidedness would lead to a backlash, and potentially more extensive redistricting reform. But then again, maybe I’m overestimating Ohioans’ aversion to such shenangians.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Ryan’s best play is to run for Auditor (assuming all statewide incumbents seek re-election).  Kaptur’s fate will depend on OH’s Republican incumbents.  Even if they’d still be safe, I can see a scenario where no nearby incumbent wants to take any of Toledo and this ends up saving her.  Of course, if someone agrees to take it then she’s screwed.  She’s lucky Bob Latta lives in Wood County, I’ll say that much.