Which party will win in 2024?

[smoltchanov]

Leaning Republican.

[MABA 2020]

Mitch will spend the next four years sabotaging Biden and then the republicans will be rewarded with the white house because life isn't fair.

[wbrocks67]

Given this country's penchant for Incumbents, and how even Trump was seemingly able to get some more votes b/c of simply being the incumbent, it seems objectively Ds are in a good start to begin with.

[Crumpets]

Knowing as little as we do about what 2024 will look like, I'm sticking to the "incumbent tickets tend to win re-election" line for now and giving Biden and/or Harris the advantage, even if a slight one. I obviously recognize that wouldn't have worked for 2020, but hey, at least Trump does seem to have had some kind of incumbency advantage.

[Sir Mohamed]

Way too soon to tell. Lean D for now.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Incumbents are usually favored for re-election unless there’s something wrong. Who knows how Biden’s term with shape out so as of right now, HeMs favored

What are 'HeMs'?

Stupid fingers not being able to type He’s

[Talleyrand]

President Haley is inevitable. Might be the biggest Republican win since 1988.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Trump runs again, I have a feeling he'll screw the GOP out of another "should've been" win. If he runs against Biden again I think he'll lose worse than he just lost. I think it should be a de facto rule that if a general election candidate loses, they shouldn't run again. WJB and Adlai Stevenson did worse the second (and even worse on the third for WJB) time than the first time. That doesn't mean it's destined to happen to Trump, but it's generally not a good sign if an electorate rejects you once. It's a sign to give somebody else a chance. But we all know Trump doesn't play by "the rules".

If it's another Republican, and Biden retires, I'll assume Harris would easily win the D nomination and a Republican may be slightly favored there.

If Biden runs for re-election himself against a non-Trump Republican, I start out thinking he'll be slightly favored.

But really depends on how the next four years go.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have a pessimistic view of the Biden administration's probable trajectory (if my predictions seem a little optimistic for Democrats in, say, the House, that's because they come with fairly wide confidence intervals at this stage).

The most recent retread nominee was Nixon and that went just fine for him. I don't think DJT will be winning anywhere near as comfortably but he should be on course for a bigger victory than Biden's own this time. Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leaning Republican.

You still don't believe in 279 blue wall, WI, PA and MI aren't flippumg with Baldwin, Stabenow or Casey up for reelection in 2024, Rs gotta face those facts, they won in landslides in 2012/2018 and will again in 2024

[VBM]

Democrats as long as Harris isn’t the nominee

[BigSerg]

Leaning Republican.

[EastwoodS]

Leaning Republican.

You still don't believe in 279 blue wall, WI, PA and MI aren't flippumg with Baldwin, Stabenow or Casey up for reelection in 2024, Rs gotta face those facts, they won in landslides in 2012/2018 and will again in 2024

No

[Bomster]

If the economy is better in 2024 than it was in 2023 the Democrats hold the presidency. It really is the economy, stupid. I have a feeling another economic collapse is coming soon. As wages go down and wealth inequality rises as the debt get worse and worse somethings gotta give.

[It’s so Joever]

Democratic, and it will be razor thin.