Rust Belt Trio seat most likely to flip in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which Senate seat of the "Rust Belt Trio" is most likely to flip in 2024? Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin?

[Meatball Ron]

Probably Wisconsin, right? Though I have to assume Baldwin is more personally popular than Stabenow (who could retire in '24, making it a harder hold).

Either way - it's definitely not PA, assuming Casey runs again.

[MT Treasurer]

1. WI
2. MI
3. PA

Baldwin's and Stabenow's crossover appeal is exaggerated on this forum, and I could certainly see Baldwin losing if the Republican presidential nominee carries WI (very possible, even if Biden wins reelection).

[Frenchrepublican]

It depends.

Does one of them feature a open race ?

Who is the Republican candidate in each of these race ?

On the paper WI is more likely to flip than PA which itself should be more competitive than MI.

[Bootes Void]

probably wisconsin

[Xing]

While Wisconsin is probably the most likely to go Republican at the presidential level, I think Michigan is slightly more likely to flip at the Senate level. Baldwin's not unbeatable, but she is a pretty good campaigner who's been underestimated both times she's run (kind of interesting to see the parallels between Baldwin and Johnson), while Stabenow was massively overrated in 2018. I think MI-SEN and MI-PRES probably track each other pretty closely, while Baldwin overperforms the Democratic ticket by a least a narrow margin (not 5-10 points, but a few points.)

[libertpaulian]

MI. 

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

[Figueira]

MI. 

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Stabenow is the one running in 2024, not Peters.

[libertpaulian]

MI. 

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Stabenow is the one running in 2024, not Peters.

I know, but the point still stands.

[Frenchrepublican]

MI.  

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Except that MI is structurally more democratic than WI.

Had the Peters / James matchup took place in WI, James would have likely won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NON, BOB CASEY JR, STABENOW AND BALDWIN WON BY LANDSLIDE S IN 2012/2018. Obama was reelected on their coattails and so will Biden. Brown is gonna win too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1. WI
2. MI
3. PA

Baldwin's and Stabenow's crossover appeal is exaggerated on this forum, and I could certainly see Baldwin losing if the Republican presidential nominee carries WI (very possible, even if Biden wins reelection).

Baldwin easily won in 2012/2018

[Arizona Iced Tea]

1. WI
2. MI
3. PA

Baldwin's and Stabenow's crossover appeal is exaggerated on this forum, and I could certainly see Baldwin losing if the Republican presidential nominee carries WI (very possible, even if Biden wins reelection).

Baldwin easily won in 2012/2018

Both were good years for the Dem party though

[GALeftist]

1. WI
2. MI
3. PA

Baldwin's and Stabenow's crossover appeal is exaggerated on this forum, and I could certainly see Baldwin losing if the Republican presidential nominee carries WI (very possible, even if Biden wins reelection).

Baldwin easily won in 2012/2018

Both were good years for the Dem party though

She still overperformed Evers in 2018 quite substantially.

[ElectionsGuy]

MI.  

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Except that MI is structurally more democratic than WI.

Had the Peters / James matchup took place in WI, James would have likely won

I think he would've won by 0.5% in Wisconsin. I could see him getting 65% in Waukesha.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Maybe I'm putting too much stock in Baldwin's individual popularity, but her performance relative to other Democrats running statewide in Wisconsin in 2018 makes me think she would likely outrun the Democratic presidential ticket somewhat significantly. That being said, she did have an uninspiring opponent, and I would be surprised if Wisconsin did not vote the furthest to the right of the 3 states in the 2024 presidential election.

As far as Michigan goes, the Senate race this year was definitely a bit of a wake-up call. However, the GOP's bench here is not particularly strong aside from James, and my gut tells me that he will run for governor in 2022 instead of going for a third Senate run. The split between Biden and Peters this year was really interesting, though; Peters managed to lose Kent County while Biden carried it by >6%. Of course, Kent County is prime anti-Trump Republican territory, but Whitmer and Stabenow both won it in 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

MI.  

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Except that MI is structurally more democratic than WI.

Had the Peters / James matchup took place in WI, James would have likely won

I think he would've won by 0.5% in Wisconsin. I could see him getting 65% in Waukesha.

Something like that, yeah.

[libertpaulian]

MI.  

Baldwin is underrated as a campaigner, and Casey has enough of a floor for victory.

Peters, on the other hand, showed how vulnerable he and Michigan Dems are.

Except that MI is structurally more democratic than WI.

Had the Peters / James matchup took place in WI, James would have likely won

Stabenow only got 6% in a blue wave, while Whitmer got 10%.