Will New Hampshire be competitive?

[AGA]

Did Biden win it by so much because it hates Trump or because it's just a fairly Democratic state? Is it trending R like other rural white states?

[Chips]

Trump always having low approvals in NH probably has something to do with it but it is also just a Democratic-leaning state. George W. Bush's 2000 win there seems more like a fluke than anything especially since Gore could've easily won it without Nader. That said, A moderate northeastern Republican could easily win NH. Lean D.

[tosk]

Republicans can obsoletely win in this state. Don't forget that trump almost flipped it in 2016, and romney was competitive in 2012. In a good republican year, no reason that state wouldn't flip.

[Alben Barkley]

If the GOP stays as crazy as it currently is (likely), I doubt it. Like most of New England, NH is just too educated and irreligious for... this kind of thing:

[Real Texan Politics]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence (don't quote me on that), but other than those I think New Hampshire stays tilt to lean or likely D.

[bagelman]

Depending on the right R candidate and national environment it ranges from Lean to Likely/Borderline Safe D.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

[Intell]

New England has abnormally high White Non-College vote for Biden/democrats, when/if this collapses, NH will be competitive.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans can obsoletely win in this state. Don't forget that trump almost flipped it in 2016, and romney was competitive in 2012. In a good republican year, no reason that state wouldn't flip.

By all measures, you could call this a "good republican year" since in all measures, it seems likely that the GOP had even higher turnout than Democrats.

[President Biden Democrat]

New Hampshire already is competitive, although this year was a good year for Democrats on the Presidential and Senatorial levels. Biden and Shaheen did very well in their respective races. Over the next decade, New Hampshire will go back to being a pure tossup, that will swing back and forth between the two political parties.

[tosk]

Republicans can obsoletely win in this state. Don't forget that trump almost flipped it in 2016, and romney was competitive in 2012. In a good republican year, no reason that state wouldn't flip.

By all measures, you could call this a "good republican year" since in all measures, it seems likely that the GOP had even higher turnout than Democrats.

Down ballot republicans in NH had a great year, but trump wasn't popular. He still outperformed his polling, and made somewhat of a showing. I'm also not sure what GOP vs Dem turnout was in NH. My point really just was that it's a competitive states and republicans can flip it.

[Senator Incitatus]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

Tucker Carlson would be quite obviously be the most secular GOP nominee ever not named Trump and is a semi-New Englander (at least as much of one as Bush) to boot.

[Catalyst138]

I think it will remain Lean D for a while. Not impossible for the GOP but an uphill battle.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

Tucker Carlson would be quite obviously be the most secular GOP nominee ever not named Trump and is a semi-New Englander (at least as much of one as Bush) to boot.

The secular comment was aimed at Pence. The moderate comment was for both of them.

[ElectionsGuy]

New Hampshire is a very independent and swingy state. Independents generally have a track record of swinging against the incumbent, and Trump lost a lot of his 'moderate' support he had from 2016 because of some of his more conservative policies, this is why the northeast swung the most D compared to other regions. It is also a very white state, and Trump improved with non-whites while doing worse with whites (mostly college-educated, which NH has a lot of) in this election. I'm not shocked he lost NH by a decent amount (it was still more than I thought). That doesn't mean Republicans can't win it in future elections, it can absolutely swing back, but it's a bit left of the tipping-point state in the electoral college.

[Gracile]

It's possible given the state's swingy nature, but I think Maine is still the most likely flip out of all the New England states on a demographic level/comparing Maine and New Hampshire's electoral trends.

[Senator Incitatus]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

Tucker Carlson would be quite obviously be the most secular GOP nominee ever not named Trump and is a semi-New Englander (at least as much of one as Bush) to boot.

The secular comment was aimed at Pence. The moderate comment was for both of them.

Just like Trump, Carlson is moderate — just not in a way that you like.

[It’s so Joever]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

Tucker Carlson would be quite obviously be the most secular GOP nominee ever not named Trump and is a semi-New Englander (at least as much of one as Bush) to boot.

The secular comment was aimed at Pence. The moderate comment was for both of them.

Just like Trump, Carlson is moderate — just not in a way that you like.

Hot take: Trump isn’t moderate but Carlson is (in the opposite way of Clinton being a moderate)

[SN2903]

No NH is a bunch of yuppie liberals now. Trump doesn't need it to win though obviously.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t get where this ‘NH is a swingy/elastic’ state meme comes from. A swingy/elastic state with the PVI of NH occasionally votes for the other party for federal office, especially when said party has two successful elections in a row and the most recent election was more of a neutral year.

If NH was as swingy as people are making it out to be, it wouldn’t have had an all-D Congressional delegation after 2016 and Trump probably would have won it in 2016 (Republicans targeted NH more than the Upper Midwest). It’s about as ‘elastic’ as IA.

[Not Me, Us]

I could see someone like Tucker flip it, or maybe Mike Pence.

Those are two very weird picks if you're looking for somebody with NH (secular, moderate) appeal. But you apparently think Tucker is actually a good candidate, so...

Tucker Carlson would be quite obviously be the most secular GOP nominee ever not named Trump and is a semi-New Englander (at least as much of one as Bush) to boot.

The secular comment was aimed at Pence. The moderate comment was for both of them.

Just like Trump, Carlson is moderate — just not in a way that you like.

What exactly is moderate about Tucker Carlson?