Biden, Tossup or Trump??
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  Biden, Tossup or Trump??		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who wins the electoral college?
#1
Tossup		  
#2
Biden		  
#3
Trump		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: Biden, Tossup or Trump??  (Read 511 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: November 04, 2020, 12:31:50 PM »
I think maybe Biden, but I am voting tossup, anything can still happen with the states which haven't been called.

(I didn't get enough sleep last night)
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win win
dxu8888
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2020, 12:33:00 PM »
biden 270-268
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2020, 12:36:58 PM »
What are the current results in Nebraska 2?
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2020, 12:44:03 PM »
Biden. Wisconsin is done, all that's left in Michigan is favorable to Biden, and that's 270 without even mentioning Georgia/Pennsylvania, which could still go to Biden, though it's less certain.
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Canis
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2020, 12:44:14 PM »
Quote from: tmcitizen on November 04, 2020, 12:36:58 PM
What are the current results in Nebraska 2?
Its already been Called for Biden Trump is up in ME-2 but it has not been called yet
Anyway Trump has a chance to win but its very low Biden will likely carry WI MI and one or both of PA and GA and that's all he needs assuming he holds NV
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2020, 12:47:49 PM »
Biden
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charcuterie
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2020, 12:48:50 PM »
Lean/Likely Biden. It's up to just a few states now.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2020, 12:50:02 PM »
Nevada? Isn't that still a tossup?
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2020, 12:51:44 PM »
Biden, somewhere between 306-232 and 270-268, as the only two states that seem genuinely in doubt are Georgia and Pennsylvania.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 12:52:39 PM »
Usatoday has seven states that have yet to be called, AK,NV,WI,MI,PA,NC,&GA.

My understanding is that NV,WI & MI are Biden's best chances which would bring him to exactly 270
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2020, 12:53:21 PM »
Quote from: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on November 04, 2020, 12:51:44 PM
Biden, somewhere between 306-232 and 270-268, as the only two states that seem genuinely in doubt are Georgia and Pennsylvania.
So, North Carolina is likely Trump?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2020, 12:54:15 PM »
Quote from: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on November 04, 2020, 12:51:44 PM
Biden, somewhere between 306-232 and 270-268, as the only two states that seem genuinely in doubt are Georgia and Pennsylvania.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2020, 12:54:40 PM »
Quote from: tmcitizen on November 04, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
Quote from: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on November 04, 2020, 12:51:44 PM
Biden, somewhere between 306-232 and 270-268, as the only two states that seem genuinely in doubt are Georgia and Pennsylvania.
So, North Carolina is likely Trump?


I think so.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 12:57:24 PM »
As for Georgia and Pennsylvania, they will likely be extremely close.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 01:01:05 PM »
Nebraska 2 is interesting because it was a split decision, with the GOP candidate winning the House race (Bacon)
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2020, 01:09:37 PM »
Quote from: tmcitizen on November 04, 2020, 01:01:05 PM
Nebraska 2 is interesting because it was a split decision, with the GOP candidate winning the House race (Bacon)

Eastman was unabashedly liberal (and a woman), which probably accounts for the difference.
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Orser67
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2020, 01:12:09 PM »
Presidency is Likely Biden

Senate is...Likely Republican? Feels like it's at least Lean Republican.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2020, 01:22:14 PM »
The stock market is way up today. Apparently Biden is partly responsible for this?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2020, 01:37:50 PM »
The good thing is that now, unlike before the election, we can treat each state's count as a completely independent variable.

I'll start with this rough estimate:
MI: 95% chance Biden wins
WI: 95%
NV: 90%
AZ: 90%
PA: 85%
GA: 50%
NC: 10%

Results:
97.3% Biden, 2.41% Trump, 0.26% Tie

Let's go pessimistic:
MI: 90%
WI: 90%
NV: 85%
AZ: 80%
PA: 60%
GA: 25%
NC: 5%

Results:
83.7% Biden, 15.25% Trump, 1% Tie.

Even "doomer numbers" give Biden a pretty hefty chance.
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woodley park
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2020, 01:43:02 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 01:58:28 PM by woodley park »
Biden is going to win. Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan will end up in his column. It seems he will claim Pennsylvania when all is said and done. NYT's Upshot seemed relatively optimistic Biden would surprise in Georgia as well, though I haven't seen any analysis since this morning. North Carolina seems out of reach.
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