FL, NC - Ipsos/Reuters: Biden +4 in FL, +1/+2 in NC

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oct 27 - Nov 1
Changes with Oct 21-27

FL
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_florida_state_poll_w6_11_02_2020_.pdf

670 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)
Some other candidate 2% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (n/c)

Follow up question pushing those who picked an option other than Biden or Trump to pick Biden, Trump or some other candidate again:

Biden 51%
Trump 47%
Some other candidate 2%

Five-way ballot:

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 46% (-1)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
West 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
Some other candidate 0% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

NC
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_north_carolina_state_poll_w6_11_02_2020_.pdf

707 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 48% (n/c)
Some other candidate 3% (+1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (n/c)

Follow up question pushing those who picked an option other than Biden or Trump to pick Biden, Trump or some other candidate again:

Biden 50%
Trump 48%
Some other candidate 2%

Five-way ballot:

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 48% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Some other candidate 1% (n/c)
West 1% (+1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Seems like we've seen a small but consistent widening of Biden's lead in Florida in the polls the last few days.

[swf541]

Florida def seems to be breaking for Biden atm

[kireev]

In today's Ipsos polls of AZ, NC and FL I can see the same pattern: the share of of likely voters who have already voted is about 50% in all three of them. The polls were conducted October 27 - Nov 1. On average on Thursday-Friday of last week these states were already at around 80% or more of the 2016 vote share.  But some mail ballots take longer to arrive and get registered, so all these states were definitely well over 80% of the 2016 vote share at that time. So it looks like the polls are not capturing enough of these voters. For example, FL has 14 million registered voters. As Friday morning 7.8 million voted - it's over 50% of registered voters. They have to be no less than 60% of likely voters. Probably closer to 70%.

[Hope For A New Era]

Florida is good, NC has really been scaring me the last few days.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida is good, NC has really been scaring me the last few days.

Yeah, 1-3% Dem leads in NC rarely hold.  Florida looks way more promising for Biden than I expected though.

[Hollywood]

In today's Ipsos polls of AZ, NC and FL I can see the same pattern: the share of of likely voters who have already voted is about 50% in all three of them. The polls were conducted October 27 - Nov 1. On average on Thursday-Friday of last week these states were already at around 80% or more of the 2016 vote share.  But some mail ballots take longer to arrive and get registered, so all these states were definitely well over 80% of the 2016 vote share at that time. So it looks like the polls are not capturing enough of these voters. For example, FL has 14 million registered voters. As Friday morning 7.8 million voted - it's over 50% of registered voters. They have to be no less than 60% of likely voters. Probably closer to 70%.

The Florida polls did not capture the amount of Republicans and Independent voters in the early vote.  Ipso has reduced Democrat voter proportion from 45-46% to 39% (both early and Election Day), because that is their percentage of all early votes.  Democrats are expected to be outnumbered on Election Day.  Republicans are now 41% of IPSO poll, because they are nearly 38% in Florida early votes.  You had polls that predicted only 31-39% of early votes going to Trump (Democrats, Republicans and Independents), but it's hard to imagine those numbers when 38% of Republicans have already voted. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida is good, NC has really been scaring me the last few days.

We don't really need it though. Florida is enough of a win for me. The Senate race is certainly important though.

[Hope For A New Era]

The Senate race is certainly important though.

So we really need it then!

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Senate race is certainly important though.

So we really need it then!

Well, that depends on how much ticket-splitting there is. I expect that Cunningham could over-perform Biden now.

[Alben Barkley]

The single most consistent, noteworthy thing I've been seeing the past day or two in the polls is a Biden gain in FL across just about every pollster.

Obviously, that's a pretty damn good thing to see on the eve of the election.

[swf541]

The single most consistent, noteworthy thing I've been seeing the past day or two in the polls is a Biden gain in FL across just about every pollster.

Obviously, that's a pretty damn good thing to see on the eve of the election.

Yep has been my main takeaway from the last 72 hours of polling

[wbrocks67]

Florida is good, NC has really been scaring me the last few days.

I mean, if Biden wins NC, it will likely be by 1-3, so...