NYT/Siena - NV: Biden +6

[ExSky]

I think this is a reasonable result and poll.

And can we stop slamming NYT/Siena they have an A+ ranking - they know what they’re doing

They have very serious flaws in Hispanic heavy states that are simply inexcusable. How are you denying that?

[Asta]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

[Oryxslayer]

I think this is a reasonable result and poll.

And can we stop slamming NYT/Siena they have an A+ ranking - they know what they’re doing

No one is slamming them overall. But it is a *fact* that they have terrible track record with polling Latinos in places like TX and AZ. The fact that Nate acts like it's not a thing and doesn't provide that context is baffling.

Not just those, two, its endemic across the SW. Look at the district polls in 2018. They are not the only ones who have this problem, they just have the profile to be recognized when the fail. One could make the argument something similar exists for the GOP in parts of the Midwest.

[Ljube]

I'm pretty sure we will see a big swing toward Trump among the Hispanics.

I have already stated the reasons why I am sure of it:

1) Too much focus on the BLM
2) Too left leaning platform
3) Attacks on religion

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

No, Hillary was just uniquely disliked. How many times does this have to be said?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'll take it. Don't need to go on another rant about South West polling RN.

[Asta]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

No, Hillary was just uniquely disliked. How many times does this have to be said?

It went redder from 2008 to 2012 than it went from 2012 to 2016. How is that attributable to her?

[tagimaucia]

There's no need to deny the fact that Nevada has moved slightly to the right over the past few cycles, it clearly has, albeit not drastically.

[forsythvoter]

Nevada is far more working class than the D-trending sunbelt states (CO, VA, AZ). Biden's gains with college-educated white voters don't tranlsate as much here.

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

No, Hillary was just uniquely disliked. How many times does this have to be said?

It went redder from 2008 to 2012 than it went from 2012 to 2016. How is that attributable to her?

Most states went redder in 2012 from 2008. Obama won by a smaller margin than he did in 2008. It's not comparable.

Nevada went from being a swing state in the '90 and '00s to voting blue in 3 straight presidential elections (will be 4 straight this year).

[Rand]

Remember when RCP had Trump ahead in their final Nevada average?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[Xing]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

Regression to the mean a trend does not make.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Democrats seem to always under poll their numbers in NV. Remember when Harry Reid was going to lose in 2010? And Trump was going to win in 2016? Biden will win by 6-9%.

[forza nocta]

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.

How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008?

2008: 55-43
2012: 52-46
2016: 48-46

That doesn't sound redder to you?

Obama did worse in nearly all states between 2008 and 12. And if you notice in 2016, the GOP got the same share of the vote in 12 and 16. It was Hillary who underperformed Obama by 4.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Nevada President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-26

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TheLaRocca]

Nevada is actually a good bell-weather for national PV.

(1) It's diverse and matches America demographically.
(2) pretty working-class and non-educated though

and

(3) Las Vegas IS one of the most (if not THE MOST) R friendly cities in the country. Clinton won Vegas by 12% IIRC. Might seem like a lot but considering its a giant urban center, diverse, and multi-cultural you'd think margins would mirror LA. They don't because the type of whites who live in Vegas are very different then the types who live in LA.

All and all Nevada is a good reflection of the national popular vote. Biden will win the state but it won't be by more then his national margin.