1996 After Two Terms of Dukakis

[Don Vito Corleone]

What would the 1996 Election Have looked like if Dukakis had won the 1988 and 1992 elections (let's say he beats Dole in 1992 for clarity's sake)? Who do the Democrats nominate? Who do the Republicans nominate? And who wins?

[McGarnagle]

Bentsen/Clinton 465 51% defeats Gingrich/Mack 73 38%

Vice President Bentsen defeats Representative Gingrich in a landslide, narrowly carrying his home state of Texas. A third consecutive Democratic victory happens for the first time since 1940, as Republicans regroup to wonder if they've strayed too far to the right to be politically viable anymore. At 75, Lloyd Bentsen becomes the oldest President ever elected, balanced by his younger running mate, 50-year-old Bill Clinton.

Georgia is decided by just 234 votes, in Bentsen's favor. Bentsen narrowly wins a string of other Republican strongholds as well, such as Virginia, North Carolina and South Dakota.

[President Johnson]

Bentsen probably isn't running here. He would have been 75 at the time and actually retired in the middle of Bubba's first term from his administration for age reasons. Hard to tell who the parties nominate exactly, but the Republican would most likely win here.

My pure guess:

✓ Senator Richard G. Lugar (R-IN)/Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN): 277 EV. (49.38%)
Former Speaker Richard Gephardt (D-MO)/Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA): 261 EV. (48.67%)

[Agonized-Statism]

Dukakis' administration, unable to properly rebrand itself for the age of New Democrats despite a narrow victory against Dole in 1992, sees a much stronger and earlier Republican Revolution in 1990. Gingrich himself runs in 1996 and crushes whoever the Democrats nominate. Bentsen doesn't run because of his age, nor do any high profile candidates as the election is widely expected to be a Republican sweep.

Fmr. Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) / Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Congressman Newt Gingrich (R-GA) / Governor John Engler (R-MI) ✓

[dw93]

1992:

In one of the greatest political upsets in history, President Dukakis and Vice President Bentsen narrowly defeat Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole and running mate Governor Carroll Campbell despite a weak economy.

1996:

Despite a recovered economy, due to unpopular US involvement in Rwanda, legislative setbacks and the Democrats nominating controversial Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, California Governor Pete Wilson is soundly elected the 42nd President of the United States, marking the first time since 1954 that the Republicans will control both houses of Congress and the Presidency at the same time.

[One Term Floridian]

1992:

In one of the greatest political upsets in history, President Dukakis and Vice President Bentsen narrowly defeat Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole and running mate Governor Carroll Campbell despite a weak economy.

1996:

Despite a recovered economy, due to unpopular US involvement in Rwanda, legislative setbacks and the Democrats nominating controversial Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, California Governor Pete Wilson is soundly elected the 42nd President of the United States, marking the first time since 1954 that the Republicans will control both houses of Congress and the Presidency at the same time.

I mostly agree with this map, but how is the GOP already getting 60%+ in AR, WV & LA against Bill Clinton in the 90s?

[dw93]

1992:

In one of the greatest political upsets in history, President Dukakis and Vice President Bentsen narrowly defeat Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole and running mate Governor Carroll Campbell despite a weak economy.

1996:

Despite a recovered economy, due to unpopular US involvement in Rwanda, legislative setbacks and the Democrats nominating controversial Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, California Governor Pete Wilson is soundly elected the 42nd President of the United States, marking the first time since 1954 that the Republicans will control both houses of Congress and the Presidency at the same time.

I mostly agree with this map, but how is the GOP already getting 60%+ in AR, WV & LA against Bill Clinton in the 90s?

Oops, forgot to change the percentages.