Tarrant County, TX - The perfect bellwether?

[Nate Shahidi]

Tarrant County, Texas, which contains the city of Ft. Worth, has been a near perfect bellwether county for Texas (at least at the presidential level) since at least 2008. It's almost erie.

2008:
Texas: McCain 55% Obama 43%
Tarrant County: McCain 55% Obama 43%

2012:
Texas: Romney 57% Obama 41%
Tarant County: Romney 57% Obama 41%

2016:
Texas: Trump 52% Clinton 43%
Tarrant County: Trump 52% Clinton 43%

I could understand if it was something like Maricopa County, Arizona, which holds like 40% of the state's population, but Tarrant County, while populous, isn't the most populous county in Texas by far and holds only about 7% of the states population. So the question is, why is Tarrant so accurate? And do you think the streak will continue in 2020?

BTW, I'm brand new here, and I know that this isn't really about the 2020 election, so feel free to move the topic to a more appropriate board, if there is one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It has been a pretty good bellwether in the past because its demographics are at least fairly representative of the state as a whole.

TX as a whole is:

12.9% African American
5.2% Asian
39.7% Hispanic
41.2% White


Tarrant County is:

17.9% African American
5.8% Asian
29.5% Hispanic
45.3% White


That is not exactly the same, but is in the same general ballpark. Tarrant County has a bit higher African American population share than TX as a whole, but that is offset by a bit lower Hispanic population share.


However, in 2020 and potentially going forward Tarrant county is likely to start voting a bit to the left of TX as a whole, because it is more urban/suburban (does not include any real rural areas). Beto narrowly won Tarrant County while losing statewide, and Biden is likely to do a few points better in Tarrant County than he does statewide now.

[redjohn]

In 2018 we saw Tarrant vote about 3% to the left of TX statewide, and it probably increases in 2020. Not that it won't be a bellwether in general, but it'll be interesting to see if it continues trending to the left (granted, like we expect TX to as well).

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Historically yes, not sure that holds anymore though. Beto won Tarrant by a little under a point while losing statewide by about two and a half.

[S019ian Liberal]

Biden almost certainly wins Ft Worth County yet he's only a narrow fave in the state overall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems to be trending to the left faster than the rest of the state. Collin will still prolly be just a tad to the right of the state, but I think that’s a better bellwhether assuming current trends continue.

[Xing]

Probably not in 2020. I think it'll vote at least a few points to the left of the state. Collin seems like a better bellwhether for this year.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collin, Collin, Collin

[ExSky]

Collin and Denton are better bellweather le

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Tarrant County, Texas, which contains the city of Ft. Worth, has been a near perfect bellwether county for Texas (at least at the presidential level) since at least 2008. It's almost erie.

2008:
Texas: McCain 55% Obama 43%
Tarrant County: McCain 55% Obama 43%

2012:
Texas: Romney 57% Obama 41%
Tarant County: Romney 57% Obama 41%

2016:
Texas: Trump 52% Clinton 43%
Tarrant County: Trump 52% Clinton 43%

I could understand if it was something like Maricopa County, Arizona, which holds like 40% of the state's population, but Tarrant County, while populous, isn't the most populous county in Texas by far and holds only about 7% of the states population. So the question is, why is Tarrant so accurate? And do you think the streak will continue in 2020?

BTW, I'm brand new here, and I know that this isn't really about the 2020 election, so feel free to move the topic to a more appropriate board, if there is one.

Don't have anything specific to add, but welcome to the forum!