The New York Times: Democrats' Senate Hopes May Ride on Tennessee

[Adlai Stevenson]

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. freely acknowledges that he faces many challenges in his campaign for the Senate, which may ultimately determine the Democratic Party's chances of regaining a Senate majority.

Representative Harold E. Ford Jr., who hopes to wrest a Senate seat from Republicans, spoke recently at a Democratic event in Greeneville, Tenn.

Mr. Ford, 36, is a Democrat in a conservative state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. He is the scion of a polarizing political family with an uncle under indictment on federal corruption charges, or, as Mr. Ford dryly puts it on the campaign trail, "You may have read a few things about my family." He is an African-American in a region that has not sent an African-American to the Senate since Reconstruction.

Moreover, the South has become a Republican stronghold in recent years, the castle keep for the party's Senate majority. Democrats lost five seats in the region in 2004. Of the 22 Senate seats in the South, only 4 are now held by Democrats. Party leaders are keenly aware that until they make inroads in the South, any stable majority in the Senate will be hard to achieve. But they have hopes that Mr. Ford can begin to turn the tide.

And Mr. Ford, a five-term congressman from Memphis, rouses his audiences, white and black, with little parables of political possibility: How he was driving back to Memphis one day on the campaign trail, fired up after a meeting at a church, and decided to stop and shake hands at a bar and grill called the Little Rebel. How he looked with some trepidation at the Confederate flag outside and the parking lot filled with pickup trucks, covered with bumper stickers for President Bush and the National Rifle Association.

And how he was greeted, when he walked through the door, by a woman at the bar who gave him a huge hug. "And she said, 'Baby, we've been waiting to see you.' "

The story goes on (and on) in the way of Southern political speech, but it conveys Mr. Ford's core message: that Tennesseans of all political stripes are ready for change, tired of partisan and ideological divisions and ready for some pragmatism and action — on high energy costs, big deficits, inadequate veterans benefits, health care and education.

Mr. Ford says that if there was ever an opening for his candidacy, it is in this restless political year — and his national party leaders say they agree.

"Anyone who thinks the South in 2006 is the same as the South in 2004 is mistaken," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Both parties have a huge interest in what happens here. Democrats must pick up six Republican seats to regain control of the Senate, a formidable task. The most competitive possibilities, party strategists say, are probably Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana and Missouri.

If everything breaks perfectly for the Democrats on election night, the sixth seat would be from either Tennessee, an open seat being vacated by Senator Bill Frist, the Republican majority leader, or Arizona, where Senator Jon Kyl, a two-term Republican, is running for re-election.

"Tennessee could very well make or break whether we take back the Senate," Mr. Schumer said.

Tennessee Republicans say they are confident their state will hold the line against what they call just another liberal. "He's a media darling, he's charismatic, all of the above, but at the end of the day, the guy doesn't vote right," said Bob Davis Jr., chairman of the State Republican Party.

Brad Todd, a consultant to former Representative Van Hilleary, a Republican contender for the Senate, said: "This is a federal race, and Tennessee elects bona fide conservatives to federal office. Even when Al Gore first ran for the Senate, he ran as a pro-life, pro-gun conservative. And Harold Ford is not that."

Before Republicans can mount a full-scale campaign against Mr. Ford, they have a fiercely competitive primary to settle. Three major candidates are vying for the nomination in the Aug. 3 primary: Mr. Hilleary, former Representative Ed Bryant and Bob Corker, a former mayor of Chattanooga. Mr. Bryant and Mr. Corker have run for the Senate before and were defeated in Republican primaries. Much of the debate so far has revolved around who is the true conservative in the race.

One reason for Democratic optimism here is the possibility of a wounded Republican nominee emerging from a bitter (and relatively late) primary. Mr. Ford's major opponent in the Democrat primary withdrew recently, giving him the luxury of running a general election campaign — raising money and running advertising, most recently on the price of gasoline.

It was viewed as a measure of Republican concern when the National Republican Senatorial Committee began a series of personal attacks with a Web site called "Fancy Ford," mocking Mr. Ford for vacationing in the Hamptons, socializing and raising money with stars like Sarah Jessica Parker, and wearing Armani suits. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee responded with a Web site called "Fancy Frist," cataloging the patrician tastes of the current Republican senator.

"My grandmother used to say, 'bless their hearts,' " Mr. Ford said of the attacks while campaigning across eastern Tennessee. "When people don't have anything meaningful to say, they go on the attack."

Mr. Ford is not immune to the accusation of leading a privileged life. The son of Representative Harold Ford Sr., he graduated from the elite St. Albans School in Washington, the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Michigan Law School; he was elected to his father's Congressional seat at 26.

In the tradition of other Southern Democrats who prospered in conservative times, Mr. Ford presents himself as a pro-growth, centrist, fiscal hawk.

He voted for the resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq (he has also called for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld), for a constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage and for the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act. NARAL Pro-Choice America considers him "mixed choice" on abortion; the National Rifle Association gave him a grade of C in the 2004 election. He also backs a constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget.

Mr. Ford is known as something of an ambitious maverick in his party; he challenged Representative Nancy Pelosi of California for the minority leader's job in 2002. According to Congressional Quarterly ratings, he voted with his party 83 percent of the time in 2005, below the average Democratic party unity score of 88 percent. Republicans say he is still the most liberal member of the Tennessee delegation.

Mr. Ford agrees that "the most toxic word in the political vocabulary in this state is liberal" and fights the ideological characterization. He is an accomplished, seemingly effortless campaigner, slipping comfortably between the old cadences of Southern populism, "new Democrat" optimism and the rich oratory of the black church.

About 16 percent of Tennessee's population is black; in addition to "campaigning everywhere," as Mr. Ford puts it, his campaign needs a major turnout in black communities. "I can't do this without you," he told a group of black ministers in Knoxville. After a day of frenetic campaigning, with more to come into the night, he ended simply: "I just want to be a good senator. If we make some history, fair enough."

[Eraserhead]

Ford is stinking up the place down there far as I can tell. He might have a chance but it doesn't look good right now. I think the Senate might ride more on Arizona. That is the sleeper race to watch. Kyl has 44% approval rating.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

[Gustaf]

I agree that Tennessee doesn't look good at all and that Arizona is probably a better bet. Still, I wouldn't count on either of them.

[minionofmidas]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

[Republican Michigander]

If Harold Ford jr was pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, not from Memphis, and had a last name of Smith (because of his uncle John), then he'd have a much better chance.

Granted he can't pick his relatives, but the gun and life issues he could have controlled.

[WalterMitty]

id consider voting for ford.

although, he is probably a little too conservative for my tastes.

[Eraserhead]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

[MarkWarner08]

id consider voting for ford.

although, he is probably a little too conservative for my tastes.

 I'm still perplexed by your political beliefs. You think Harold Ford is "too conservative," yet Sherrod Brown is a "silly populist." They both share similar economic views, but you catergorize them differently. Do you have a personal objection to  Rep. Brown?

Back to this article, I believe Democratic hopes of  winning an elusive sixth seat hinge on Jim Pederson willingness to Jon Corzine his fortune away.

[Eraserhead]

id consider voting for ford.

although, he is probably a little too conservative for my tastes.

 I'm still perplexed by your political beliefs. You think Harold Ford is "too conservative," yet Sherrod Brown is a "silly populist." They both share similar economic views, but you catergorize them differently. Do you have a personal objection to  Rep. Brown?

Back to this article, I believe Democratic hopes of  winning an elusive sixth seat hinge on Jim Pederson willingness to Jon Corzine his fortune away.

I agree. Its all about the Pendersons.

[Gustaf]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

It certainly is.

It isn't much higher, anyway.

[minionofmidas]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

Remind me, again - how many seats do they have to pick up? Out of how many Republican-seats? With how many incumbents standing down?

Yeah, right.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ford has a chance, but probably only 20% at best.

I could see Webb making Virginia very competitive, though.

[Eraserhead]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

Remind me, again - how many seats do they have to pick up? Out of how many Republican-seats? With how many incumbents standing down?

Yeah, right.

6...wow. Tough but hardly impossible.

[WalterMitty]

id consider voting for ford.

although, he is probably a little too conservative for my tastes.

 I'm still perplexed by your political beliefs. You think Harold Ford is "too conservative," yet Sherrod Brown is a "silly populist." They both share similar economic views, but you catergorize them differently. Do you have a personal objection to  Rep. Brown?

Back to this article, I believe Democratic hopes of  winning an elusive sixth seat hinge on Jim Pederson willingness to Jon Corzine his fortune away.

never underestimate the power of likability.

[TomC]

Ford is stinking up the place down there far as I can tell. He might have a chance but it doesn't look good right now. I think Senate might ride more on Arizona. That is the sleeper race to watch. Kyl has 44% approval rating.

No, sir, the Republicans are stinking up the place. They are in a bitter, ugly primary contest that may hurt their chances (which are good right now) by being ugly partisans who are playing the "I'm the most right wing" game. Hilleary and Bryant are attacking ech other for that spot and at the same time attacking Corker for not being 100% conservative.

Harold Ford Jr is no liberal icon. He is moderate to a "T." Many progressive Democrats are not happy with their choice here (I'm not one of them). He has been planning a statewide and probably national run for his adult life. He is fine on the issues enough to win a statewide contest.

His uncle's shenanigens are a different story and are his achilles heel. Without this scandal, Ford would be very competitive in this race. And still may be if the state GOP doesn't stop being so incredibly negative, self-defeating, and partisan.

[minionofmidas]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

Remind me, again - how many seats do they have to pick up? Out of how many Republican-seats? With how many incumbents standing down?

Yeah, right.

6...wow. Tough but hardly impossible.

A 10% likelihood is hardly impossible.

[© tweed]

TradeSports gives the Democrats about a 1/4 chance of winning the Senate in 2006 and about a 5/9 chance of winning the House of Represenatives.

[minionofmidas]

TradeSports gives the Democrats about a 1/4 chance of winning the Senate in 2006 and about a 5/9 chance of winning the House of Represenatives.

Anything that is unlikely but still possible, but desperately sought by large numbers of uninformed people with too much money to burn, is going to be heavily overrated by a mechanism of odds-making based on actual bets entered.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well it seems clear that the 5 best are PA, MT, RI, MO, OH.

Last VA is 34-51
Last TN is 36-44
Last NV is 32-52
Last AZ is 33-40

2nd last TN is 39-43
2nd last AZ is 37-53

Going to go with TN.

[Eraserhead]

If the Radiclibdems hopes rest on Ford, they might as well prepare an official minority strategy for the next two years.

They should indeed, as the probability of taking the Senate is 10% at the very best.

It certainly isn't that low.

Remind me, again - how many seats do they have to pick up? Out of how many Republican-seats? With how many incumbents standing down?

Yeah, right.

6...wow. Tough but hardly impossible.

A 10% likelihood is hardly impossible.

Its pretty damn close to it.