Biden up double digits in Romney +15, Trump +10 district

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317893364491161601

There is a suburban GOP-held House seat that Romney won by 15%+ and Trump won by 10%+. Today, at least two private surveys I've seen have Trump *down* 10%+ there.

In the past few weeks, I've heard the word "bloodbath" uttered in multiple convos w/ GOP pollsters/ad makers.

I would bet on it being IN-5 but can make a case for MO-2, TX-6 as well.

[wbrocks67]

Things like this really lend credence to the possibility that Biden may win in a total landslide just as much as Trump could come back and win.

[redjohn]

Hopefully we can sweep these lying, fascist thugs out of office. The tactics they're resorting to in the final two weeks of the campaign are ridiculous and probably very illegal.

[VAR]

It’s IN-05.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What do you expect when you have a Pandemic, Trump won't win that's why he is pretending there isn't any Covid and it is

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s IN-05.

MO-02, TX-03, TX-31 and TX-02 also fit that

[Devils30]

It's probably IN-5, even if Biden outruns Donnelly in suburban Indy, I figure he runs behind him in rural areas of the state and probably loses Indiana by 5-6%.

The issue for the GOP is they have no chance in WI, MI, PA with these numbers and OH becomes very close if Delaware County and OH-12 has a similar trend.

Not to mention the possibility of a total collapse by Rs in Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, Dallas suburbs.

[VAR]

It’s IN-05.

MO-02, TX-03, TX-31 and TX-02 also fit that

But we know it’s IN-05:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1317897012679933953?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s IN-05.

MO-02, TX-03, TX-31 and TX-02 also fit that

But we know it’s IN-05:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1317897012679933953?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

All those seats have Whole Foods, I bet. Regardless, I bet Biden is leading in all those seats by comfortable margins, but 10+ points seems a bit extreme. That’d be like 20% swings across the board

[Pericles]

Some of the 2016 swings were pretty extreme (even when Hillary was leading big, I think some people underestimated how much specific suburban areas would swing to her), and swings often get underestimated in international elections that turn out to be #trends elections. So expect the unexpected, at least for states, districts and counties (not really for the overall outcome at this point).

[Brittain33]

It’s IN-05.

MO-02, TX-03, TX-31 and TX-02 also fit that

TX-2 and TX-31 were blowouts for Romney. MO-2 is closer to 10/15 than IN-5 is, but if he were rounding to the nearest 5 then IN-5 still fits.

[KaiserDave]

Magnificent

[Badger]

Hopefully we can sweep these lying, fascist thugs out of office. The tactics they're resorting to in the final two weeks of tbe campaign for the last 5 years running are ridiculous and probably very illegal.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really hope that congressional district polls and national polls end up being more accurate than state polls. If so, this election has been over for awhile...assuming everyone who chooses Biden in these polls votes.

[woodley park]

So... its over?

[NOVA Green]

First time I spent time in the district overnight was way back around '93/'94 when I was in College sleeping in my Gay Friend's family home, and his childhood bedroom, in North Marion County, while I was catching a train to Chicago before heading back West to Oregon.

Was a year or so after I got my nose busted in Indianapolis at an Anti-KKK rally.

Suburban Indianapolis don't like haters, regardless of the Northern Part of the City or Southern parts of Hamilton County.

Only reason why Indiana will likely vote Trump is because Biden will underperform Obama '08 numbers significantly in the Southern parts of the State, plus likely rolling slightly behind numbers in the Factory Towns of Northern Indiana, and significantly underperforming numbers within rural corn/soybean rurals within the State.

Still... Biden ads are covering Indiana from all sides on local TV, plus National commercials on NFL games and others.

Maybe stealth is on the air.... hopefully Obama can pop up into Indiana for a cameo in Indianapolis or NW IN, or NE IN to get some cross-over country into neighboring states.

[TheLaRocca]

not surprising.

[Calthrina950]

Biden could very well carry Christina Hale over the finish line, if this district is indeed IN-05. At this point, I'm thinking that he's going to easily match Obama's overall 2012 performance in the state. A 51-45% result for Trump would portend disaster for him elsewhere in the Midwest.

[wbrocks67]

I really hope that congressional district polls and national polls end up being more accurate than state polls. If so, this election has been over for awhile...assuming everyone who chooses Biden in these polls votes.

The congressional polls have all been pretty aligned and painting the same picture for a while, while the state polls have been a little more erratic, which I find interesting

[swf541]

I really hope that congressional district polls and national polls end up being more accurate than state polls. If so, this election has been over for awhile...assuming everyone who chooses Biden in these polls votes.

The congressional polls have all been pretty aligned and painting the same picture for a while, while the state polls have been a little more erratic, which I find interesting

Completely agreed, I am really curious to see which ends up being more reflective of the end results.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

First time I spent time in the district overnight was way back around '93/'94 when I was in College sleeping in my Gay Friend's family home, and his childhood bedroom, in North Marion County, while I was catching a train to Chicago before heading back West to Oregon.

Was a year or so after I got my nose busted in Indianapolis at an Anti-KKK rally.

Suburban Indianapolis don't like haters, regardless of the Northern Part of the City or Southern parts of Hamilton County.

Only reason why Indiana will likely vote Trump is because Biden will underperform Obama '08 numbers significantly in the Southern parts of the State, plus likely rolling slightly behind numbers in the Factory Towns of Northern Indiana, and significantly underperforming numbers within rural corn/soybean rurals within the State.

Still... Biden ads are covering Indiana from all sides on local TV, plus National commercials on NFL games and others.

Maybe stealth is on the air.... hopefully Obama can pop up into Indiana for a cameo in Indianapolis or NW IN, or NE IN to get some cross-over country into neighboring states.

I live just in IN-07, but I spend a large amount of time in IN-05, which is just across the street. Sang in several concerts held at Second Presbyterian, which incidentally was where they held Ryan White's funeral back in 1990.

The shift in political alignment from Republican to Democrat in northern Indianapolis, in all levels of government, is staggering to behold. The 2019 city-county council elections flipped 6 of 25 seats, including the one I live in. It was 14-11, now 20-5. It was a bloodbath.

Hamilton County is still going to go to Trump, but the Marion County (Indianapolis) portion is emblematic of the huge partisan shift in white, wealthy, educated areas.

[YE]

Dude this isn’t an actual confirmed poll.