Predict Biden's highest national polling lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 07:55:14 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Predict Biden's highest national polling lead		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Between now and election day, what will be Biden's highest national polling lead (excluding internals).
#1
Biden < +15 (he's hit his peak)		  
#2
Biden +16		  
#3
Biden +17		  
#4
Biden +18		  
#5
Biden +19		  
#6
Biden +20		  
#7
Biden +21		  
#8
Biden +22		  
#9
Biden +23		  
#10
Biden +24		  
#11
Biden >+25		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 97

Author Topic: Predict Biden's highest national polling lead  (Read 2906 times)
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 17, 2020, 10:09:53 AM »
A bit of speculative fun - what will the highest national poll lead be for Biden?

For historical context

Reagan was up +21 in a Gallup poll vs Mondale in August 1984
Clinton was up +25 vs GWHB a few weeks after Perot dropped out in July 1992.

My prediction - I think there will be one poll with Biden +20 (Biden 56, Trump 36, something like that) when the VP is announced.
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,766
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2020, 10:50:06 AM »
So are we not counting that SurveyMonkey poll?
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2020, 11:03:41 AM »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 17, 2020, 10:50:06 AM
So are we not counting that SurveyMonkey poll?

I'm not, no.
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,900
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2020, 11:11:40 AM »
Biden +27
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2020, 11:17:09 AM »
I'm gonna cheat on this question with a cheating answer that will technically hold correct. Biden wins CA by around a +35 margin.


Nationally he wins by +5 -IF and only IF the polls are to be believed and he does in fact win
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,423
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2020, 08:54:41 PM »
I think in August we'll see something whacky like 17-18 point lead.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2020, 08:57:38 PM »
If the roughly 10 point lead he's had for the past month holds into early August when he announces his VP choice, maybe then, assuming it's someone who half the country is genuinely interested in and doesn't already have partisan feelings about.
Logged
fasd312af
Newbie
*
Posts: 1
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2020, 09:00:04 PM »
85% of those who answered the poll think Biden's highest poll lead is going to top 15 with today's polarized electorate, even considering the strong possibility there's no democrat convention bump this year. What the hell is wrong with you people lmfao
Logged
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,156


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2020, 09:37:09 PM »
Quote from: fasd312af on July 17, 2020, 09:00:04 PM
85% of those who answered the poll think Biden's highest poll lead is going to top 15 with today's polarized electorate, even considering the strong possibility there's no democrat convention bump this year. What the hell is wrong with you people lmfao

Months ago a consistent double digit lead would have been unimaginable.
Logged
BlueGrassKentuckian
Rookie
**
Posts: 88


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2020, 09:49:03 PM »
Some of you voted >25%? Seriously delusional. I say, he's probably hit his peak... may go back up to 10-12 a few times.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2020, 09:56:36 PM »
Biden +18.  I think the covid pandemic will get worse and Trump will be blamed for it but I don't think in a polarized two party system that it can get much worse than that for either party.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,352
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2020, 10:03:31 PM »
Quote from: BlueGrassKentuckian on July 17, 2020, 09:49:03 PM
Some of you voted >25%? Seriously delusional. I say, he's probably hit his peak... may go back up to 10-12 a few times.

Uh... I hate to break this to you but he already went back up to 10-12 in multiple polls over the past few days plus one up 15.
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 03:30:55 PM »
Bumping the thread to update the highest lead so far:

Reuters/Ipsos Biden +16
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,423
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2020, 09:12:27 PM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on August 12, 2020, 03:30:55 PM
Bumping the thread to update the highest lead so far:

Reuters/Ipsos Biden +16
Quote from: Ferguson97 on July 17, 2020, 08:54:41 PM
I think in August we'll see something whacky like 17-18 point lead.

Hey, only one point off!
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,341


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2020, 09:14:23 PM »
Biden+17 in a convention bounce poll(quinnipiac maybe)
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2020, 09:58:41 AM »
Leger August 16 - Biden +16

Will Biden get a convention bump in the coming days? Shocked
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,109


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2020, 10:38:53 AM »
No one will be getting a convention bounce this year, sorry to say. I almost guarentee you nothing will change, and after the RNC, nothing will change. Please stop getting me exciting about large fluctuations in polls that won't happen. The country is just too polarized.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,500
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2020, 10:51:00 AM »
Lol Biden is still the underdog in TX, he will win by 7 or so if he wins OH, IA and GA. That is his max. He isnt winning by 15 or more
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2020, 11:57:44 AM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 19, 2020, 10:51:00 AM
Lol Biden is still the underdog in TX, he will win by 7 or so if he wins OH, IA and GA. That is his max. He isnt winning by 15 or more

This thread is about predicting Biden's highest national polling lead, not what the final result will be.

What do you think his highest polling lead will be?
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,341


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2020, 12:36:50 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on August 12, 2020, 09:14:23 PM
Biden+17 in a convention bounce poll(quinnipiac maybe)
Maybe this still
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,279


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2020, 12:37:46 PM »
I predict we'll get a Biden +20 next week following his convention bounce.
Logged
GeneralMacArthur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2020, 01:07:11 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on August 19, 2020, 12:37:46 PM
I predict we'll get a Biden +20 next week following his convention bounce.
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2020, 04:52:40 AM »
Long Island University / Survey Monkey: Biden +18

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/liu-national-poll-americans-think-highly-anticipated-first-presidential-debate/

I'm not sure if it is a legit poll yet but for now, I'm counting it.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,423
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2020, 10:46:40 AM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on September 29, 2020, 04:52:40 AM
Long Island University / Survey Monkey: Biden +18

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/liu-national-poll-americans-think-highly-anticipated-first-presidential-debate/

I'm not sure if it is a legit poll yet but for now, I'm counting it.
Quote from: Ferguson97 on July 17, 2020, 08:54:41 PM
I think in August we'll see something whacky like 17-18 point lead.

Hey, only one month off!
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2020, 07:11:14 AM »
Its been a while but PRRI have a national poll with Biden +18 (high turnout model) 56/38

Biden +18
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.256 seconds with 13 queries.