Why has Trump's support among Cuban Americans apparently grown since 2016?

[Badger]

By most reports and polling - - standard warning about margin of error in polling among specific demographic groups duly noted-- Cuban Americans are the one voting Bloc (possibly other than Orthodox Jews) which appear to be swinging, or at least trending in Trump's favor compared to 4 years ago.

Genuine question. Why?

The short answer I've heard is his reversal of Obama's baby steps towards normalizing trade and travel with Cuba. However, I was under the impression that those policies were unpopular primarily with the elderly Old Guard who still hope for a do-over on the Bay of Pigs, and whom vote overwhelmingly Republican to begin with anyway. Many Cuban Americans, particularly under the age of 45 or so, I thought supported these moves.

I'm by no means an expert on Cuban American politics, so I'm very much seeking any information possible here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Cuba isnt that Far from Miami makes the issue of Cuba hit home far more than for man other immigrant groups which is why Cubans across the board are opposed to the Cuba deal

[Politics Fan]

I suspect that Immigration not being a major campaign issue helps Trump unlike in 2016 when was one of the top issues. Though I do think his Hispanic support in general is overstated by polls as most polls don't pick up Spanish only speaking Hispanics who tend to be very staunch Democrats.

[Roll Roons]

My theory is that Trump and the GOP keep pounding in that the Democrats are socialist. When they see people like AOC and Sanders become increasingly prominent, it gives more credence to those attacks.

[Progressive Pessimist]

SOCIALISM!

[Kamala's side hoe]

The short answer I've heard is his reversal of Obama's baby steps towards normalizing trade and travel with Cuba. However, I was under the impression that those policies were unpopular primarily with the elderly Old Guard who still hope for a do-over on the Bay of Pigs, and whom vote overwhelmingly Republican to begin with anyway. Many Cuban Americans, particularly under the age of 45 or so, I thought supported these moves.

I'm by no means an expert on Cuban American politics, so I'm very much seeking any information possible here.

It’s easy to forget that older folks are living longer now. Those super hardcore GOP Boomer refugees are still alive and still voting.

I’m no expert on Cuban American politics either, but I’m guessing proximity to whiteness (Cuban Americans are the whitest major Latino group in the US), combined with more traditional gender roles and the national Dems becoming more rhetorically leftist are pushing younger and native-born FL Cubans to the right as well.

[It’s so Joever]

Because boomer Cubans in general have never picked up a history book.

[Intell]

Realisation or shifting in opinion from the Democratic Party being a centrist party to the party of the activist left.

[Bootes Void]

I think the Latinos in Florida at least the Cubans tend to more secluded from the Latinos from the rest of the country as the Florida GOP tends to be very Latino friendly compared to the national GOP or the GOP from other states.

It not just Cubans but other Latino groups in Florida tend to be more conservative

[Badger]

The fact that Cuba isnt that Far from Miami makes the issue of Cuba hit home far more than for man other immigrant groups which is why Cubans across the board are opposed to the Cuba deal

By that novel theory, Irainian-Americans must care relatively little about foriegn policy towards their homeland because its on the other side of the planet.

[Adam Griffin]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The fact that Cuba isnt that Far from Miami makes the issue of Cuba hit home far more than for man other immigrant groups which is why Cubans across the board are opposed to the Cuba deal

By that novel theory, Irainian-Americans must care relatively little about foriegn policy towards their homeland because its on the other side of the planet.

OSR's account is reductive, but I don't think it's outright wrong. Many Cuban-Americans do seem uniquely hostile to The Old Country compared to other refugee/asylee-heavy groups, and it's hard to avoid getting the impression that that might not be the case if they had more psychological distance from it.

[Blair]

I'm partly convinced that the aggressive outreach word of Rick Scott & the Florida GOP played a huge part in this... irrc the bump with Florida hispanics isn't just with cubans.

[Indy Texas]

His support among Hispanics in general has been either unchanged or slightly improved since 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Note that I don't believe Trump has actually improved among Hispanic groups overall since 2016. I mostly believe this because as someone from the SW I have seen the story of Republicans polling better among Hispanics too many times before all the votes are counted, and this time the media is just focusing on it because they need something to be positive for Trump and it fits into the story from the primary.

Honestly though, it's really simple why Trump has improved among Cubans. You just need to accept that Clinton was not a new normal - all the Florida politicos already do. Some of the stories about Trump's shady business dealings in 2016 involved Cuba, and  when Trump referred to Latinos in 2016 there often was no distinction between groups. Democrats hammered this home in ads and many Miami-Dade cuban organizations and individuals withheld support from Trump. Now its 2020, and all the doom and gloom that Dems were predicting hasn't happened when it comes to Cubans. If anything, Trump's Venezuela policy has affirmed that he is just a normal Republican to Cubans, albeit a demonstrative one. Additionally, Republicans now fear Cubans slipping away because of 2016, and the Florida GOP has worked hard to improve their brand among the community and ensure that an average Republican candidate still is appreciated in Miami-Dade.

[Common Sense Atlantan]

Carlos Gimenez

[Badger]

The fact that Cuba isnt that Far from Miami makes the issue of Cuba hit home far more than for man other immigrant groups which is why Cubans across the board are opposed to the Cuba deal

By that novel theory, Irainian-Americans must care relatively little about foriegn policy towards their homeland because its on the other side of the planet.

OSR's account is reductive, but I don't think it's outright wrong. Many Cuban-Americans do seem uniquely hostile to The Old Country compared to other refugee/asylee-heavy groups, and it's hard to avoid getting the impression that that might not be the case if they had more psychological distance from it.

Psychological distance, of course.  But the theory of physical distance is rather silly since the 20th century