North Carolina and Georgia

[ucscgaldamez1]

I keep seeing people being very upbeat about North Carolina going to Biden. But I have a hard time seeing that. There were polls in October of 2016 showing Clinton leading and she ended up losing by 3%. Some of those polls were before and after the Comey letter. So aren't we underestimating Trump's support there? What makes it different this time around than in 2016? Favorability ratings? I think at the end Trump wins North Carolina by 1 or 2%. I guess I will have to see if these polls hold up for the next three weeks.

And whats different in Georgia this time around?

Arent we been too upbeat and then be disappointed on election night?

[Ferguson97]

Pollsters are now controlling for education, so it is unlikely that Trump's support is still be understated.

[forza nocta]

I mean speaking on Georgia alone, Trump led nearly every poll there in 2016 and the final 538 polling average had him +4. It had arguably the most accurate polling out of the closer states, so idk why you brought it up in particular

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/

[Hammy]

Pollsters are now controlling for education, so it is unlikely that Trump's support is still be understated.

Pretty sure that was less a factor than the large undecided pool, which is also absent this year.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arent we been too upbeat and then be disappointed on election night?

What is it with this boards total aversion towards any semblance of optimism and anyone being optimistic? (Don't tell me the answer, I know).

It doesn't hurt anyone else that I'm being hopeful that 1 or 2 more states go Bidens way.

[Ferguson97]

Arent we been too upbeat and then be disappointed on election night?

What is it with this boards total aversion towards any semblance of optimism and anyone being optimistic? (Don't tell me the answer, I know).

It doesn't hurt anyone else that I'm being hopeful that 1 or 2 more states go Bidens way.

There's nothing wrong with optimism, but there's a difference between cautious optimism and blind optimism.

Pretending voter suppression doesn't exist (I know you saw the 5th circuit ruling, so don't pretend it didn't happen) doesn't help anything.