CA-25 - Breakthrough Campaigns (D): Biden +4

[VAR]

https://perma.cc/6CAV-FUEB

[KaiserDave]

Went to HRC by 7, so this is interesting.

[Tintrlvr]

Went to HRC by 7, so this is interesting.

It's a Smith internal, which says to me that she is releasing this to show herself ahead but still in a horse race in order to encourage donations. Note the mention of "resources" in the poll write-up. You don't really want to release internals showing you ahead by 15 because then people start assuming you are safe and stop donating to your campaign/going out to volunteer/etc.

[Skill and Chance]

Went to HRC by 7, so this is interesting.

And this is a Dem internal.  Folks, the Hispanic shift toward Trump is real.

[wbrocks67]

Went to HRC by 7, so this is interesting.

And this is a Dem internal.  Folks, the Hispanic shift toward Trump is real.

Or this poll is junk and pollsters, as we've seen numerous times in CA especially, still can't figure out how to poll Latinos correctly

[demoman1596]

Went to HRC by 7, so this is interesting.

And this is a Dem internal.  Folks, the Hispanic shift toward Trump is real.

If this shift were real, wouldn't you expect it to show up in things like approval rating or favorability rating?  Correct me if I'm wrong, of course, but I don't see any indication of that.

At Civiqs, for example, it looks like the net Trump approval and Trump favorability ratings among Hispanics are about the same as they were on Election Day 2016.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I love how we never apply the problems Nevada polls have with Hispanic voters to similarly Hispanic states for some reason

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I love how we never apply the problems Nevada polls have with Hispanic voters to similarly Hispanic states for some reason

NV is more Hispanic, has a worse history when it comes to polling misfires and also has the Reid machine to account for (for now ).

[wbrocks67]

I love how we never apply the problems Nevada polls have with Hispanic voters to similarly Hispanic states for some reason

NV is more Hispanic, has a worse history when it comes to polling misfires and also has the Reid machine to account for (for now ).

CA always underpolls Ds though. It's the same thing.

[TheLaRocca]

Nah. Orange County is not +20 Biden well CA-25 is +4...Nor is Arizona more Dem then CA-25.

That said Biden isn't ahead by 10+ nationally its 6 to 7.

[SevenEleven]

I love how we never apply the problems Nevada polls have with Hispanic voters to similarly Hispanic states for some reason

Most of California's working-class population isn't concentrated in an area where workers are staffed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Hispanics are tough to poll, but Nevada is not a good comparison. Asians are also tough to poll, so California has its own separate polling issue.

[TheLaRocca]

I love how we never apply the problems Nevada polls have with Hispanic voters to similarly Hispanic states for some reason

Most of California's working-class population isn't concentrated in an area where workers are staffed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Hispanics are tough to poll, but Nevada is not a good comparison. Asians are also tough to poll, so California has its own separate polling issue.

CA/AZ/TX = Understates Democrats polling

MI/WI/MN/PA = Overstates Democrats polling