If this was the result, what would the narrative be/how would analysts explain it?
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  If this was the result, what would the narrative be/how would analysts explain it?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: If this was the result, what would the narrative be/how would analysts explain it?  (Read 972 times)
Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
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« on: October 06, 2020, 08:36:21 PM »

Obviously it is VERY unlikely, but as a thought experiment.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 08:38:08 PM »
Atlas would crash for one
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 08:38:42 PM »
I would give up on being a pundit.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 08:41:02 PM »
My election predictions up until March 11 of this year were similar. The only difference is that I had Donald Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Rhode Island.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 08:41:17 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2020, 08:46:22 PM by Dr. Lurker »
“Biden severely underperformed in the suburbs compared to what we were expecting in general. However, Arizona was barely won because of Mark Kelly’s reverse coattails. Also the Reid Machine is dead.”
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 08:42:03 PM »
Voter suppression/USPS dismantling
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 08:42:28 PM »
Van Jones would be losing his absolute ****, it would be must see TV.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 08:43:10 PM »
In just three-and-a-half weeks, a vaccine was distributed to everybody in the country and all the jobs came back. Herman Cain rose from the dead, and said, "See! COVID isn't so bad!"
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Admiral Stockdale
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 09:52:26 PM »
I am assuming there is no monkey business in this scenario and it is a "real" result.

Would need to look at exit polling - particularly in MN, PA, NH, NV, and NC.  I assume in this scenario, MI / WI and CO / AZ are close too (maybe even VA) - and you would want to look at them as well.

Suburban and over 65 voters likely bolt for Trump.  Women likely don't abandon him as much as expected.

Lower than expected turnout.

Polsters would really need to reconsider their models and methods.

 
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TC 25
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 09:54:08 PM »
Lower than expected turnout.   More enthusiasm from Trump than Biden.
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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 09:56:18 PM »
In 2019 this would an interesting discussion, but now not so much.
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republican1993
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 09:59:41 PM »
hispanics and non-college educated whites came out in greater margins
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2020, 10:00:52 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on October 06, 2020, 09:59:41 PM
hispanics and non-college educated whites came out in greater margins

Why would NV go to Trump then? Also; if that were the case, MN would prolly still go blue before WI.
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riceowl
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2020, 10:10:56 PM »
Lack of Anger Among NH Women
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Kleine Scheiße
PeteHam
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2020, 07:26:15 AM »
all discussion goes to nevada, pennsylvania, and minnesota with zero mention of the fact that the democrats flipped arizona, wisconsin, and michigan
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 07:58:03 AM »
Mining, energy, and steel workers gave Trump just enough support to win.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 08:07:11 AM »
I think that a Trump win, however unlikely, is a possibility.

I think that a Biden win in Texas is about equally likely as a Trump win, at this point, but there's still time for Biden to do better than he currently is in Texas.

I also don't think that if Trump wins it will be with the OP map.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2020, 08:36:18 AM »

Nice callback Smiley
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BidenHarris2020
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2020, 08:42:35 AM »
You would wake up.
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