Michigan (Detroit News/Glengariff Group): Biden +9
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 07, 2024, 10:54:54 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Michigan (Detroit News/Glengariff Group): Biden +9
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Michigan (Detroit News/Glengariff Group): Biden +9  (Read 2794 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,528
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2020, 01:02:11 AM »

You’d think Biden winning seniors by 30 would lead to a larger margin than just +9?

Sub sample margin of error explains a lot of it, but in the upper Midwest I do believe it’s seniors who are one of the most D leaning age groups. 18-29 year olds may vote more Democratic than those 65+, but it’s the middle aged folks who swung the hardest towards Trump in places like Michigan, and they will stick with him.

Gen-exers in states like MI were hardest hit by de-industralization (especially Males) where their expected standard of living / income wasn't the boat, the 2nd home or "vacation cottage" on one of the Great Lakes or elsewhere in upper Michigan that their union parents had as part of the post-war deal between labor and the Auto industry.

RE: subsamples:.... also noteworthy that counties in MI with the highest % of 80+ tend to be in upper Michigan, but also tend to be lower in POP.

Numbers of those 70+ also tend to be clustered in the Northern part of the State and UP as well...

If so in theory, we might expect to see some of the greatest swings between '16 PRES GE > '20 PRES GE in precisely those counties....

Meanwhile Wayne County runs notably below MI statewide numbers with % of 65+

Oakland County tracks close to average.

Macomb County runs a little bit below avg, esp in in the 62-65 age bracket.

Macomb & Oakland runs quite a bit lower on the younger set (18-29).



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,878
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2020, 03:22:07 AM »

I think seniors may hate Trump as much as under 35s now. What the hell is wrong with Generation X? They're the real problem, not boomers.
My Gen X mother (and Trump hater) wants to deny this, but it’s true, this is the generation which will re-elect Trump.


Ironically enough, my parents conform to the stereotype (of boomers being ardently pro-Trump). My stepmother is a Gen-Xer (born in 1965) and although she cannot vote, as she's not a U.S. citizen, she hates Trump. But my father on the other hand, is a Baby Boomer (born in 1947), and he's on board with the Trump Train. My stepmother has told me of occasions where they've passed Trump supporters, or people with Trump flags, on the road, and how he's blown his horn at them to express his support. I thought he was wavering because of Trump's handling of the pandemic and race relations, but no, he's still with him.

I am a Boomer, and I can tell you that my generation is severely polarized in politics -- as in economic realities. Those of us who have had to work sh!tty jobs much of our lives are decent enough. In such jobs one must adopt humility and lowered expectations as survival skills. Our economic elites are obnoxious people who have created rigid low ceilings of opportunity for the rest of us. People can get around those rigid low ceilings... if they are born into the elites. We have the majority of the Vietnam-era veterans who got little out of their service. We also have the most rapacious executives in American history, and they are richly rewarded for treating subordinates badly.

Many of us took seriously the advice from school guidance counselors that whatever one does, do not do assembly-line work. Do anything else! The problem? Only the dumbest of us did that work. The problem is that the jobs disappeared because Big Business accommodated that habit by offshoring such jobs. What was usually the most reliable route out of poverty for people of modest skill and intellect vanished in America and appeared in the Third World. Such work is no more mind-numbing than other work similarly repetitive and numbing. Machine-paced work is exactly what one needs to make unions possible. Unions faded in importance and with them the workers with a liberal bent.       
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,528
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 06, 2020, 04:20:07 AM »

I think seniors may hate Trump as much as under 35s now. What the hell is wrong with Generation X? They're the real problem, not boomers.
My Gen X mother (and Trump hater) wants to deny this, but it’s true, this is the generation which will re-elect Trump.


Ironically enough, my parents conform to the stereotype (of boomers being ardently pro-Trump). My stepmother is a Gen-Xer (born in 1965) and although she cannot vote, as she's not a U.S. citizen, she hates Trump. But my father on the other hand, is a Baby Boomer (born in 1947), and he's on board with the Trump Train. My stepmother has told me of occasions where they've passed Trump supporters, or people with Trump flags, on the road, and how he's blown his horn at them to express his support. I thought he was wavering because of Trump's handling of the pandemic and race relations, but no, he's still with him.

I am a Boomer, and I can tell you that my generation is severely polarized in politics -- as in economic realities. Those of us who have had to work sh!tty jobs much of our lives are decent enough. In such jobs one must adopt humility and lowered expectations as survival skills. Our economic elites are obnoxious people who have created rigid low ceilings of opportunity for the rest of us. People can get around those rigid low ceilings... if they are born into the elites. We have the majority of the Vietnam-era veterans who got little out of their service. We also have the most rapacious executives in American history, and they are richly rewarded for treating subordinates badly.

Many of us took seriously the advice from school guidance counselors that whatever one does, do not do assembly-line work. Do anything else! The problem? Only the dumbest of us did that work. The problem is that the jobs disappeared because Big Business accommodated that habit by offshoring such jobs. What was usually the most reliable route out of poverty for people of modest skill and intellect vanished in America and appeared in the Third World. Such work is no more mind-numbing than other work similarly repetitive and numbing. Machine-paced work is exactly what one needs to make unions possible. Unions faded in importance and with them the workers with a liberal bent.       

I am a Gen-Exer and we are severely polarized in politics as well, perhaps most significantly in "Down State Oregon"...

Mill-working jobs used to provide extremely decent rates of compensation, regardless of if it was a Family-Owned Business and Non-Union, but still did prevailing wages  and Medical Compensation for Mill Workers which was almost a Gompers style: "Good Days Wages for a Hard Days Work"...

The "Logging Jobs" in Oregon and the "Spotted Owl" false dichotomy and politically orchestrated by Republican Leaders in Oregon, *when all of us knew* that Timber harvest levels could not continue, and Mill Workers were "casual labor", when the big Companies who dominated the vast majority of supplying the logs to the mills, were shifting their operations elsewhere while literally destroying an entire forest eco-system, and that small mills would collapse first.

Interestingly enough the war between the Independent Loggers "Gypos" vs the large Timber Companies still exists behind the smokescreen of #TimberUnity... where it was pitched to my next door neighbor who was working on a logging gig in South Tillamook County, while trying to complete his college degree at Oregon State University, and his background from a part of Oregon, where muddin' was practically a national sport, fishing was almost an every day occasion, plus he had three weapons, for various occasions: AR-15 Target Shooting, 22 Hunting Rifle with scopes for Deer Hunting, and a 9 MM for target shooting (or just in case for home self defense.)

So to get back to the topic in hand briefly...

Rural Oregon mill jobs collapsed, because of over-harvesting, plus smaller family owned Mills could not afford the retooling costs....

Many of those workers gravitated to other Industrial and Factory jobs throughout Downstate Oregon, or even honestly in historical Pulp Mill Union Towns such as Oregon City...

The Oregon Economy shifted sometime around the Reagan Recession where 40% of the State Economy a decade back was surpassed by the Tech Sector, where they exploited the cheap labor rates of skilled OR MFG workers to invest in retraining technology....

Wasn't a perfect solution, but damn I can't tell you how many of the "Old Timers" came from "Timber Mill Precision Machining Factories to the Tech Sector...

Still... even though when I first came back to the Factory started at the bottom of the line tons more comments about: "Don't like Trump, but at least he bringing jobs back to America"...

Haven't heard any positive comment in any way shape or form for the past Year or so for Trump, even though my ear is to the pavement when it comes to the line-workers at the Factory Floor...

Apologies bit of a ramble OR does not equal MI.... but still reminds of that book from Murray Bookchin that expands some of the of the concepts of Post-Industrial Society...



Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,051


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 06, 2020, 05:14:25 AM »

Margins great but yeah, these are like 2016-esque #s. Push the undecideds.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,780


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2020, 05:53:58 AM »

MoE: 4%
Changes with September 1-3 poll; trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 39% (-3)
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.232 seconds with 13 queries.