NJ - DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler: Biden +14%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://cannabislaw.report/nj-law-firm-brach-eichler-survey-reveals-65-voters-in-the-state-want-legal-cannabis/

September 8-16
501 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 5-13 poll (for the same sponsor)

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 38% (+5)
Another candidate or undecided 10% (-5)

I've added the ballot initiative poll to my latest post in the marijuana initiatives' thread.

[Skill and Chance]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

[Roll Roons]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

#SafeRHudsonCounty

[Progressive Pessimist]

I expect Biden to at least match Obama's margin here. Biden may do worse in South Jersey compared to Obama but the north is going to vote Democratic possibly more overwhelmingly than ever. I'm fairly certain of that. Biden could even pick up Morris County.

[Flo 2.0]

I think trump really maxed out his margins in South Jersey,  personally feeling like the entire state is going to swing towards biden BUT interesting poll results nonetheless

[NOVA Green]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

#SafeRHudsonCounty

Yeah.... looks like Cuban-Americans out there aren't jumping hardcore on the Trump Train, regardless of whatever may or may not be going down in Miami-Dade....

Again suspect under-polling of Latinos and Puerto Ricans in NJ are making this looks closer than it is, especially with all of the shifts going down in Bergen County....

[Progressive Pessimist]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

#SafeRHudsonCounty

Yeah.... looks like Cuban-Americans out there aren't jumping hardcore on the Trump Train, regardless of whatever may or may not be going down in Miami-Dade....

Again suspect under-polling of Latinos and Puerto Ricans in NJ are making this looks closer than it is, especially with all of the shifts going down in Bergen County....

I've never been sure why it is but New Jersey Cubans have always seemed to differ from their Floridian counterparts in terms of voting habits and worldview.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

#SafeRHudsonCounty

Yeah.... looks like Cuban-Americans out there aren't jumping hardcore on the Trump Train, regardless of whatever may or may not be going down in Miami-Dade....

Again suspect under-polling of Latinos and Puerto Ricans in NJ are making this looks closer than it is, especially with all of the shifts going down in Bergen County....

I've never been sure why it is but New Jersey Cubans have always seemed to differ from their Floridian counterparts in terms of voting habits and worldview.

Fewer first or second-generation individuals? (More distant from actually experiencing the regime in Cuba, that is). 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Basically matches Clinton's 2016 margin.  Interesting.  NJ has a large population of Caribbean Hispanics, a group that has been polled as swinging toward Trump in other states.  Perhaps they are keeping him at 2016 level support?

#SafeRHudsonCounty

Yeah.... looks like Cuban-Americans out there aren't jumping hardcore on the Trump Train, regardless of whatever may or may not be going down in Miami-Dade....

Again suspect under-polling of Latinos and Puerto Ricans in NJ are making this looks closer than it is, especially with all of the shifts going down in Bergen County....

I've never been sure why it is but New Jersey Cubans have always seemed to differ from their Floridian counterparts in terms of voting habits and worldview.

Fewer first or second-generation individuals? (More distant from actually experiencing the regime in Cuba, that is). 

That's definitely a likely explanation. I'm still not sure though because Hudson County, where Cuban-Americans are heavily concentrated, isn't quite as hip as Miami (outside of Hoboken and Jersey City, sort of, I guess.) so I've always been under the impression that these Cuban-Americans are older, especially in my observations anytime I've been in Hudson County. Maybe it's all just assumptions though.