Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Greenfield +1 in IA, Gideon +8 in ME, Graham +1 in SC

[VAR]

AZ
Kelly 51%
McSally 42%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_AZ_Senate_week2.pdf

IA
Greenfield 46%
Ernst 45%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf

ME
Gideon 50%
Collins 42%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_ME_Senate_Week2.pdf

SC
Graham 47%
Harrison 46%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_SC_Senate_week2.pdf

[Stuart98]

Greenfield running slightly ahead of Biden, Ernst running a ways behind Trump.

SC continues to be pure toss-up.

[SnowLabrador]

AZ: Further solidifies that this race is Lean if not Likely D. Kelly probably wins by high single digits.

IA: If Greenfield is really running six points ahead of Biden in terms of margin, she'll most likely win. I still think that the difference will ultimately not be more than 2-3 points, though.

ME: Lean D, not much to see here.

SC: Still Lean R in my book. Graham probably wins by 3-5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Indy Rep or MT Treasurer since Trump flubbed the debate, his Ernst and Collins are still losing

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah Greenfield running six points ahead of Biden would be incredible.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 23-28, 2020

AZ
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_AZ_Senate_week2.pdf

808 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with September 15-22 poll (for the Defend Students Action Fund)

Standard ballot:
Kelly 51% (+4)
McSally 42% (+4)
Don't know 7% (-8)

IA
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf

743 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
Changes with July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Standard ballot:
Greenfield 44% (-1)
Ernst 42% (-1)
Herzog (I) 1% (not included in previous poll)
Stewart (L) 1% (not included in previous poll)
Don't know 12% (+1 from "[leaning towards/in favour of] no one" at 11% in previous poll)

Two-way race:
Greenfield 46% (+1)
Ernst 45% (+2)
Don't know 9% (-2 from "[leaning towards/in favour of] no one" at 11% in previous poll)

ME
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_ME_Senate_Week2.pdf

718 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Standard ballot:
Gideon 46% (-2)
Collins 41% (-4)
Savage (I) 3% (not included in previous poll)
Linn (I) 1% (not included in previous poll)
Don't know 10% (+3 from "[leaning towards/in favour of] no one" at 11% in previous poll)

Two-way race:
Gideon 50% (+2)
Collins 42% (-3)
Don't know 8% (+1 from "[leaning towards/in favour of] no one" at 11% in previous poll)

SC
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_SC_Senate_week2.pdf

824 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Standard ballot:
Graham 45%
Harrison 44%
Bledsoe (C) 2%
Don't know 9%

Two-way race:
Graham 47%
Harrison 46%
Don't know 7%

It doesn't bode well for Harrison that he's behind even with the three-way ballot explicitly mentioning Bledsoe.

[wbrocks67]

AZ will likely be high single digits for Kelly, while Gideon really seems to be increasing her lead in ME. She's getting 93% of Democrats which is a death knell for Collins chances.

Greenfield is holding on really well in IA, and Ernst has not led any polls recently besides the one Fabrizio one.

SC continues to be a pure tossup.