Rate Jefferson County, Alabama

[Woody]

[slothdem]

Safe D of course.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Safe D in 2020, but you could make an argument that a post-Trump GOP could win it back either by improving with Southern suburban whites (from a still high percentage) or by improving with religious African-American voters.

[Politician]

Obviously Safe D

[Del Tachi]

Safe D, but closer to Likely D than Titanium D.

[Xing]

I think I can safely rate any poll OP makes as Safe D without even checking which safely Democratic state/district/county/election it is.

[Intell]

Safe D in 2020, but you could make an argument that a post-Trump GOP could win it back either by improving with Southern suburban whites (from a still high percentage) or by improving with religious African-American voters.

Aren’t college educated non evenganical whites people in the suburbs (esp women)  swinging hard to the Democrats in the south? Will that group switch back to the GOP?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Safe D in 2020, but you could make an argument that a post-Trump GOP could win it back either by improving with Southern suburban whites (from a still high percentage) or by improving with religious African-American voters.

Aren’t college educated non evenganical whites people in the suburbs (esp women)  swinging hard to the Democrats in the south? Will that group switch back to the GOP?

The county honestly flipped because of demographics caught up with it. It will be hard for the GOP to win it in a contested election. While Birmingham is far from being the most cosmopolitan of cities in the South it still has a good amount of Liberals, LGBTs, Jewish, and Arab Americans that will make virtually impossible for Republicans to get 70+% of the white vote.

[lfromnj]

Safe D in 2020, but you could make an argument that a post-Trump GOP could win it back either by improving with Southern suburban whites (from a still high percentage) or by improving with religious African-American voters.

Aren’t college educated non evenganical whites people in the suburbs (esp women)  swinging hard to the Democrats in the south? Will that group switch back to the GOP?

The county honestly flipped because of demographics caught up with it. It will be hard for the GOP to win it in a contested election. While Birmingham is far from being the most cosmopolitan of cities in the South it still has a good amount of Liberals, LGBTs, Jewish, and Arab Americans that will make virtually impossible for Republicans to get 70+% of the white vote.

Im pretty sure the GOP still gets atleast 80% of the white vote in Jefferson, however that isn't the 95% in rural areas and thats why its Safe D.

However it is interesting that in the Deep South that a lot of suburban counties have trended even further relative in certain races relative to 2016, for example Jefferson Parish in LA was +14.5 Trump while LA was +20.5 Trump so 6 points to the left of the state, one would expect that JBE would probably win this while winning statewide but that rurals would swing further left than this county does. In the end JBE won the state by 2.66 points but won Jefferson Parish by 14 points or 11.33 points left of the state or a 5.33 point trend relative to 2016. This in itself is very unusual considering the relatively high Hispanic population of Jefferson must mean almost no turnout in 2019 compared to perhaps 7-8% of the electorate in 2016 yet it trended 5 points left,  which is very interesting. These same voters did not vote for JBE 4 years ago either but switched to him now. I actually read an article about these Trump-JBE suburban voters and even though they approved of Trump mostly, they didn't like Rispone trying to hug Trump too much and thought JBE did good enough to vote for him. There's also Madison county in MS. MS was Trump +18 while Madison was Trump +16, yet in the Gubernatorial it was +1.7 Hood while the race was +5 reeves or a trend of around 5 points here too despite the richer whites here turning out at a much higher rate than the 2016 presidential race compared to the lower middle class African Americans here.

In 2016 Mountain brook alabama was like +30 Trump but it voted for Jones by like 20 points which is no suprise considering rich white Alabama voters hated Roy Moore and it was Jone's hometown, however in 2012 Roy moore still lost Mountain Brook, sure he wasn't a good judge but it was interesting to see in 2012 these downballot trends take place further than rural demosaurs voting for Bob Vance.

Overall seems like these suburbs do like some moderate Democrats at the state level to some degree just like Boston burbs love Charlie Baker. They really won't vote D at the presidential level, they are probably still quite socially conservative but on the other hand may be much more open to immigration and are less culturally conservative and open to perhaps some forms of gun control even if they may own a gun or two.

[BaldEagle1991]

This will be a 51% Biden - Trump 47% county.

[walleye26]

Might be off topic but do you guys think the white vote % for the GOP will go down here? From like 80 to 70 or something?

[Rookie Yinzer]

This will be a 51% Biden - Trump 47% county.

Maddox won here by 18. Biden will win the county by double digits.

[Suburbia]

Safe D.

Biden wins Mountain Brook

[Senator Spark]

Lean D. No surprise here.

[MATTROSE94]

Tilt to lean R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very very very strong likely D. Smaller counties tend to be potentially prone to more wild swings that whole states since the sample of people is smaller, but I don't see any reason why Trump would suddenly win it this cycle.

[ON Progressive]

Obviously Safe D.

[BaldEagle1991]

This is gonna be 55-42 Biden

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

60 Biden