Illinois Poll
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Author Topic: Illinois Poll  (Read 1432 times)
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« on: May 31, 2004, 02:22:31 PM »
Chicago Tribune Poll:

Kerry-Bush-Nader
53-37-4, MoE 4%

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0405300185may30,1,4739012.story?coll=chi-news-hed
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2004, 02:37:32 PM »

Fixing the link

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0405300185may30,1,4739012.story?coll=chi-news-hed

A quick note on the poll:

Market-Shares the firm which actually polled this race for the Chicaho tribune, polled both the 2002 Senate and Givernors races in Illinois and did quite well on both, missing by just 2% and 3% repectively.

The only firm which polled these two Illinois races more accurately was Mason-Dixon, and then just barely so (M/D missed by 2% and 2% respectively)
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2004, 03:27:59 PM »
Republicans remain in serious trouble in IL. Sad It will take years of work to bring the state-level races back to parity as they historically have been. The national races are tougher, barring a galvanizing external event.

I'm not entirely depressed, however. Ten years ago the pendulum had swung the other way at the state level with the Republicans in the ascendancy. Had there been a presidential election that year, IL would have voted GOP.  Ten years from now could see things shift again.
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Storebought
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2004, 03:33:00 PM »
meh. Winning IL means winning Cook County and environs, a region so scuzzy that only a Democrat would want to win election there.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2004, 06:14:46 PM »
The suburban shift is what's killing the Republicans in Illinois. Sure it's true Ryan did a lot of damage too, but you can't blame him for the 2000 Gore/Bush results since his corruption wasn't so well known then. But because of the suburban shift to the left, the GOP now loses pretty much all of Cook county by a wide margin, not just Chicago, and only wins the bordering counties by much more narrow margins. Even DuPage doesn't give Republicans the landslide numbers it used to. No way to cancel out Cook county now.

That said, Bush isn't even targeting Illinois, and I haven't seen any analysis showing it as being in play. I think polls in it are fairly pointless since it's well agreed it's firmly in Kerry's column.
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agcatter
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2004, 06:21:41 PM »
Right dead on about the shift in the suburbs killing the Republicans in Illinois.  That has been the difference in what used to be a competitive state and the one today which is no contest.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2004, 06:38:02 PM »
Illinois has been steady losing EC votes. I don't think the Republicans should even bother with it. We need to start shifting our eyes to the Southwest.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2004, 07:33:19 PM »
Quote from: NewFederalist on May 31, 2004, 07:31:55 PM
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:38:02 PM
Illinois has been steady losing EC votes. I don't think the Republicans should even bother with it. We need to start shifting our eyes to the Southwest.


"our eyes"? I thought you were an independent! You have gone green, you know.

I am absolutely not a independent. As I explained in another thread all I ever see is half of those wearing green avatars supporting Kerry 100% and trashing Bush all day. This is just fair justice. Wearing green and bashing Kerry.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2004, 07:34:48 PM »
I'm green because I'm a registered independent.  Just because you're independent doesn't mean you have to be a moderate willing to back both sides Wink
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2004, 07:38:32 PM »
I meant back.  Perhaps "throw my support to either side" would be better.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2004, 11:42:24 AM »
Hi,
I've moved most of the relevant comments over to the IL Poll. (except for usernames not yet registered)
Dvae
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