AR-02 - brilliant corners Research & Strategies: Biden +3

[VAR]

Sep 10-16, 605 LV

Biden 49%
Trump 46%

https://emilyslist.org/news/entry/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district

[Stuart98]

That's a 13 point shift from 2016. I'm highly skeptical, especially since polls in the rest of the south haven't shown this huge shift towards Biden like the Midwest has.

[Alben Barkley]

That's a 13 point shift from 2016. I'm highly skeptical, especially since polls in the rest of the south haven't shown this huge shift towards Biden like the Midwest has.

I’ve seen similar shifts in polls of similar districts in Kentucky and Missouri. So not unbelievable to me.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know much about this firm, but they were one of the first ones to show SC-SEN a real race back in mid-July (senate: Graham+2, prez Trump +7), so if that's anything to go by... they may be pretty good?

[Pericles]

Multiple polls have shown it, AR-02 may actually be making a big leap to the left.

[bilaps]

I don't know much about this firm, but they were one of the first ones to show SC-SEN a real race back in mid-July (senate: Graham+2, prez Trump +7), so if that's anything to go by... they may be pretty good?

Because election results have shown us that SC senate race is close.

[JerryArkansas]

What did I say last week? 

[OSR stands with Israel]

District  Polls should be taken with a grain of salt

[DrScholl]

This is the second poll that shows this seat shifting Democratic, so clearly there is smoke here. All that needs to be said is that Faulkner and Pulaski counties are highly educated.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know much about this firm, but they were one of the first ones to show SC-SEN a real race back in mid-July (senate: Graham+2, prez Trump +7), so if that's anything to go by... they may be pretty good?

Because election results have shown us that SC senate race is close.

Well multiple polls have said it IS close, and they were among the first to say it back in June. So if all of those polls are right, this should be taken seriously.

[Holmes]

What did I say last week? 

I dunno. What did you say?

[JerryArkansas]

What did I say last week? 

I dunno. What did you say?

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

I just don’t think Dems will win the district, let a lone by the margin in the poll given how we lost by 7 in 2018. This district isn’t exactly Trending D. I’m pretty skeptical.

It is though.  It's a highly suburban and college-educated district that has a growing non-white population.  It also trended left between 2012 and 2016 like many other regions that are now considered by most competitive.  Like I said ignore at your own risk.  I know Republicans in the state aren't acting like its as non competitive as most of you here seem to want to think.

Also if places like Alaska at-large and Ohio-1 are competitive this is too.  All three have similar margins and have incumbents running.  I'd use VA-5 and NY-2 but they don't have incumbents.