Clinton 2016 states where Trump gets over 40%

[mileslunn]

List states that Clinton won in 2016 where Trump will crack the 40% mark.  I think its safe to assume Trump gets over 40% in every state he won in 2016 even one's he loses.  Below are my thoughts:

Highly probable:

Nevada
Colorado
Minnesota
Maine
New Hampshire
Virginia

Possible:

Oregon
New Mexico
Connecticut
New Jersey

Possible but unlikely

Washington
Illinois
Rhode Island
Delaware

Almost no chance

California
Hawaii
Vermont
Massachusetts
New York
Maryland

No chance

District of Columbia

[Non Swing Voter]

List states that Clinton won in 2016 where Trump will crack the 40% mark.  I think its safe to assume Trump gets over 40% in every state he won in 2016 even one's he loses.  Below are my thoughts:

Highly probable:

Nevada
Colorado
Minnesota
Maine
New Hampshire
Virginia

Possible:

Oregon
New Mexico
Connecticut
New Jersey

Possible but unlikely

Washington
Illinois
Rhode Island
Delaware

Almost no chance

California
Hawaii
Vermont
Massachusetts
New York
Maryland

No chance

District of Columbia

Kind of reveals how skewed to the GOP the senate is in its current form.  Two of the largest states in the country in the "almost no chance" category, who each only have 2 senators.  The "no chance" is a city that doesn't have a senator at all. 

[Alben Barkley]

I would move all of the "almost no chance" states plus Delaware into the "no chance" column.

[Chips]

I'll rank the states by how much total vote I think Trump will get in the end. I do expect him to lose all of these states but be able to reach the mid to high 40's in some of them. This assumes a small third-party vote of 1-2%.

Almost certain:

Nevada (48%)
New Hampshire (47%)
Colorado (46%)
Minnesota (46%)
Virginia (45%)
New Mexico (44%)
Maine (42%)

Possible:


Oregon (40%)
Illinois (39%)

Unlikely:

New Jersey (38%)
Washington (37%)
Connecticut (36%)
Rhode Island (36%)
Delaware (35%)

Very unlikely:

New York (34%)
Maryland (33%)

Impossible:

Hawaii (31%)
Massachusetts (30%)
Vermont (29%)
California (28%)
Washington D.C (6%)

[Tekken_Guy]

I'll rank the states by how much total vote I think Trump will get in the end. I do expect him to lose all of these states but be able to reach the mid to high 40's in some of them. This assumes a small third-party vote of 1-2%.

Almost certain:

Nevada (48%)
New Hampshire (47%)
Colorado (46%)
Minnesota (46%)
Virginia (45%)
New Mexico (44%)
Maine (42%)

Possible:


Oregon (40%)
Illinois (39%)

Unlikely:

New Jersey (38%)
Washington (37%)
Connecticut (36%)
Rhode Island (36%)
Delaware (35%)

Very unlikely:

New York (34%)
Maryland (33%)

Impossible:

Hawaii (31%)
Massachusetts (30%)
Vermont (29%)
California (28%)
Washington D.C (6%)

Nevada seems rather high for Trump. I'll be surprised to see him above 45% there.

[Senator Spark]

New Hampshire - 47%
Minnesota - 46%
Nevada - 46%
Maine - 45%
Virginia - 43%
Colorado - 42%
Connecticut - 41%
Delaware - 40%
New Mexico - 40%

[Chips]

I'll rank the states by how much total vote I think Trump will get in the end. I do expect him to lose all of these states but be able to reach the mid to high 40's in some of them. This assumes a small third-party vote of 1-2%.

Almost certain:

Nevada (48%)
New Hampshire (47%)
Colorado (46%)
Minnesota (46%)
Virginia (45%)
New Mexico (44%)
Maine (42%)

Possible:


Oregon (40%)
Illinois (39%)

Unlikely:

New Jersey (38%)
Washington (37%)
Connecticut (36%)
Rhode Island (36%)
Delaware (35%)

Very unlikely:

New York (34%)
Maryland (33%)

Impossible:

Hawaii (31%)
Massachusetts (30%)
Vermont (29%)
California (28%)
Washington D.C (6%)

Nevada seems rather high for Trump. I'll be surprised to see him above 45% there.

Again, this assumes a very low third-party vote. I still think Biden wins NV by 3%.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

*snip*

Nevada seems rather high for Trump. I'll be surprised to see him above 45% there.

Again, this assumes a very low third-party vote. I still think Biden wins NV by 3%.

Biden is going to win NV by similar to Obama did in 2012 (52%-46%).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]