Irish by-elections

[YL]

There was a by-election yesterday in Dublin Bay South (2020 result FG 1, SF 1, FF 1, Green 1) caused by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy (FG).  There are 15 candidates; there are tallies here which have SF narrowly ahead of Labour and FG a little behind, but that might be misleading if the boxes opened aren't representative.  (And I suspect they're not representative, looking at where they are.)  I guess Labour would be favourites on transfers if that's accurate.

[YL]

... and indeed as more boxes are opened the SF tally is going down and the FG one is going up.

[EastAnglianLefty]

My knowledge of Dublin's sociodemography isn't great, but most of the outstanding boxes seem to be in Pembroke and Rathmines and my impression was that that is pretty much the least fruitful territory for SF in the entirety of Ireland. Sounds like they'll end up in a fairly distant third place when it's all reported?

[YL]

My knowledge of Dublin's sociodemography isn't great, but most of the outstanding boxes seem to be in Pembroke and Rathmines and my impression was that that is pretty much the least fruitful territory for SF in the entirety of Ireland. Sounds like they'll end up in a fairly distant third place when it's all reported?

Yes, I think so; according to those tallies the SF vote is as low as 3% or so in some of those districts.

[YL]

The tally is now complete and has Labour on 30%, FG on 26%, SF on 16%, the Greens on 8% and FF on 5%.  I'd imagine Labour will be more transfer friendly so would expect a Labour gain now.

[YL]

First count

Bacik (Lab) 8131
Geoghegan (FG) 7052
Boylan (SF) 4245
Byrne (Green) 2157
Conroy (FF) 1247
Flynn (Ind) 879
Durcan (Soc Dem) 849
Purcell (Solidarity/People Before Profit) 759
Tóibín (Aontú) 740
Dooley (Ind) 261
Barrett (National Party) 183
Cahill (Ind) 169
Gilbourne (Renua) 164
Keigher (Ind) 23 eliminated
O'Keeffe (Ind) 23 eliminated

People are describing this as Fianna Fáil's worst ever result.

[Tintrlvr]

Fine Gael are going to lose the seat it seems, but it still feels like their result is quite a good one for the party, while the Fianna Fail result is calamitously bad and the Sinn Fein result is disappointing (though perhaps SF might take comfort in that many who might have otherwise voted for them chose Labour instead, but Labour is still irrelevant across most of the country). It should be disappointing for the Greens not to be in contention to win in this particular seat as well, although there is little space between Ivana Bacik and the Green Party.

Has there been any chatter about whether this might bring down the tenuous FF-FG-GP government? Polling has been awful for FF but quite good for FG (generally a close FG-SF race for first, which would inevitably squeeze down the other parties), so it seems like FG might fancy their chances at an early election. It also feels hard to justify an FF government when they are polling so far behind FG, and at times nearly passed by the Greens!

[YL]

I guess the Greens may have suffered a bit from minor party in coalition syndrome.

Count 7, after the elimination of most of the also-rans:

Bacik (Lab) 8851
Geoghegan (FG) 7400
Boylan (SF) 4985
Byrne (Green) 2610
Conroy (FF) 1402 out
Flynn (Ind) 1181 out

The last two are both eliminated as Flynn's votes can't put Conroy above Byrne.

[YL]

I guess the Greens may have suffered a bit from minor party in coalition syndrome.

Count 7, after the elimination of most of the also-rans:

Bacik (Lab) 8851
Geoghegan (FG) 7400
Boylan (SF) 4985
Byrne (Green) 2610
Conroy (FF) 1402 out
Flynn (Ind) 1181 out

The last two are both eliminated as Flynn's votes can't put Conroy above Byrne.

Count 8 then eliminated Boylan and Byrne, with Geoghegan slightly gaining on Bacik, but then on Count 9 Boylan and Byrne's transfers went overwhelmingly to Bacik, so it finished Bacik 13382 Geoghegan 9235.  Lab gain from FG.