Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +9 (LV)

[Tender Branson]

50% Biden
41% Trump
  3% Others

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 11-15, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,358 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 1,133 registered voters and 859 likely voters.

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[redjohn]

Loving all these polls today. Looking like a Biden+8 lead nationally for now.

[republican1993]

Loving all these polls today. Looking like a Biden+8 lead nationally for now.

they polled +10 dems...

[Tender Branson]

Reuters/Ipsos uses the internationally approved method of estimating turnout, using a 0-10 scale for „likelihood to vote“.

10 means „absolutely certain to vote“.

0 means „absolutely certain to not vote“.

Turnout always mirrors the 10/10 figure in the end (also in Austrian polls).

65% of all adult citizens in this poll say they are a 10/10.

That would be 156 million votes out of 240 million US citizens aged 18+ this year.

Up from 60% in 2016, or 139 million votes.

[redjohn]

Loving all these polls today. Looking like a Biden+8 lead nationally for now.

they polled +10 dems...

That's why it's always good to look at the average, rather than doubting specific results. Recent polling has suggested a D+8 national environment, give or take a point or two. If Biden continues leading by this amount, the EC is gone for Trump and so is GOP Senate control.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moe among likely voters: 3.8%
Changes with September 3-8 poll

Biden 50% (-2)
Trump 41% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c from Another candidate at 3%)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 6% (+1)

[Rand]

It’s becoming more obvious every day: America hates Trump.

[Calthrina950]

Loving all these polls today. Looking like a Biden+8 lead nationally for now.

they polled +10 dems...

That's why it's always good to look at the average, rather than doubting specific results. Recent polling has suggested a D+8 national environment, give or take a point or two. If Biden continues leading by this amount, the EC is gone for Trump and so is GOP Senate control.

It is amazing to me how consistent these polls have been over the past two months, and all falling within roughly the same range. Trump has done nothing to enhance his position, and we are now less than two months away from Election Day. Obviously, he still has a chance, but it is a rapidly diminishing one with each passing day.

[pbrower2a]

Trump wins if he is only 3% behind nationally, but if by any more than that... he loses. He might not accept that he lost, but he had to counter demographic change with an electorate drifting D by 1.5 to 2%, which in an even swing would have Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as bare D wins in 2020 instead of bare wins for Trump.