FL: Monmouth - Biden +5

[wbrocks67]

I noticed that Monmouth does their polling in spanish and english. Is this something that could effect other pollsters who have different/outlier Latino results?

OMG dude they polled only 23 Hispanics.

Huh? My question isn't related to this poll in particular, just to polls in general. If pollsters aren't surveying spanish-speaking latinos and just english-speaking, they could alter the result. Calm the f**k down.

I wasn’t replying to your question actually, my comment was directed at your assumption that this poll is accurate and the others are “outliers”. I think it’s crazy to believe a 23 voter sample gets more accurate results than a 600 voter sample, but you do you, I guess...

An outlier Latino result to me is Biden *losing* Latinos in FL outright, which IS an outlier result compared to everything that we've seen in 2016 and 2018.

[WD]

For those of you who care about accuracy, Monmouth did two polls in 2016. One in August, one in September (around the same time as now). They got +9 Clinton in August and +5 Clinton in September (when Clinton only led nationally by 2). They did not do any polls in the state in 2018, and it's probably for their best that they didn't.

Clinton was up 46-41, Biden is at 50 which is a much more secure lead, not to mention that the polls says 49% of voters are not likely to support Trump. Independents are also much more likely to go towards Biden than Trump this year. But no, that doesn’t matter because muh polls wer rong!!!!

[redjohn]

Hopefully FL polls turn out accurate this year.

[Gass3268]

I noticed that Monmouth does their polling in spanish and english. Is this something that could effect other pollsters who have different/outlier Latino results?

OMG dude they polled only 23 Hispanics.

They actually did an oversample of Hispanics: "The survey contacted a small oversample of Hispanic voters" and then weighed it back down to 23.

[Nyvin]

Great poll day for Biden

[tagimaucia]

Monmouth is a very good pollster overall, but I think its fair to be mildly skeptical because they were off in a fair number of places in 2016.  I'd like to see a Siena or Selzer poll of Florida because I don't really trust a lot of the other pollsters in FL either.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

428 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.7%
The high/low turnout models are high/low with respect to 2016 turnout levels.

Further details on the Registered Voters sample:

"Other 2%" = Jorgensen 2% + Hawkins <1%
No one 1%

[MT Treasurer]

Remember when several posters unironically predicted that FL was less winnable for Biden than IA just because of a few (cherry-picked) results in 2018? Good times.

[DaleCooper]

Remember when several posters unironically predicted that FL was less winnable for Biden than IA just because of a few (cherry-picked) results in 2018? Good times.

Well that's because Iowa is elastic whereas Dems in FL have a ceiling of .01% lower than whatever the Republicans get. /s

[ProudModerate2]

Beautiful number from Monmouth for Florida.
"Strong" Tilt Biden.