AZ Latinos (Equis Research): Biden +33

[wbrocks67]

Joe Biden (D) 62
Donald Trump (R) 29
Undecided/Other 9

Mark Kelly (D) 65
Martha McSally (R) 27
Undecided/Other 8

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/biden-trump-arizona-latinos-414866

According to exit polls, Hillary won them 61-31, and Sinema won them 70-30. Seems like Rs have a ceiling here of about ~30%. But with all the talk of Trump improving with Latinos, he's not doing any better than 2016 or McSally 2018.

[DaleCooper]

Florida might be a different story, but all this talk of Latinos shifting towards Trump seems like BS to me. The media is really interested in it. I just saw a piece this morning claiming that Trump is "sensing" an opportunity with Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona.

It reminds me of the #WalkAway thing in 2018. You had all this talk about Gen Z turning towards Republicans. (I believe "most conservative generation since the Silent Generation" was a common line that rightwing idiots were using.) There were think pieces on Gen Z being disillusioned with Dems and how the Dems were in disarray over it. There were some cherrypicked polls indicating that Democrats generated little enthusiasm among 18-24 voters. Then the midterms roll around and what happens? Young people overwhelmingly reject Republicans.

Who knows what'll happen with hispanic voters this year and, like I said, Florida is a different conversation with a unique and diverse political culture, but for now all this just seems very questionable to me.

[wbrocks67]

Florida might be a different story, but all this talk of Latinos shifting towards Trump seems like BS to me. The media is really interested in it. I just saw a piece this morning claiming that Trump is "sensing" an opportunity with Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona.

It reminds me of the #WalkAway thing in 2018. You had all this talk about Gen Z turning towards Republicans. (I believe "most conservative generation since the Silent Generation" was a common line that rightwing idiots were using.) There were think pieces on Gen Z being disillusioned with Dems and how the Dems were in disarray over it. There were some cherrypicked polls indicating that Democrats generated little enthusiasm among 18-24 voters. Then the midterms roll around and what happens? Young people overwhelmingly reject Republicans.

Who knows what'll happen with hispanic voters this year and, like I said, Florida is a different conversation with a unique and diverse political culture, but for now all this just seems very questionable to me.

Well to me there always needs to be some narrative about, in all seriousness, the "Dems in Disarray". So how many cycles have we gone thru this summer? Biden was doing too much in his basement, then he wasn't doing enough for black voters, then Wisconsin and Minnesota were going to go red, and now its Latino voters. It just feels like pundits and media outlets are trying to cherrypick a few polls or data points to push some type of narrative so they can keep things "on the level" with all the negative Trump press so that it's a horserace.

[DaleCooper]

Florida might be a different story, but all this talk of Latinos shifting towards Trump seems like BS to me. The media is really interested in it. I just saw a piece this morning claiming that Trump is "sensing" an opportunity with Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona.

It reminds me of the #WalkAway thing in 2018. You had all this talk about Gen Z turning towards Republicans. (I believe "most conservative generation since the Silent Generation" was a common line that rightwing idiots were using.) There were think pieces on Gen Z being disillusioned with Dems and how the Dems were in disarray over it. There were some cherrypicked polls indicating that Democrats generated little enthusiasm among 18-24 voters. Then the midterms roll around and what happens? Young people overwhelmingly reject Republicans.

Who knows what'll happen with hispanic voters this year and, like I said, Florida is a different conversation with a unique and diverse political culture, but for now all this just seems very questionable to me.

Well to me there always needs to be some narrative about, in all seriousness, the "Dems in Disarray". So how many cycles have we gone thru this summer? Biden was doing too much in his basement, then he wasn't doing enough for black voters, then Wisconsin and Minnesota were going to go red, and now its Latino voters. It just feels like pundits and media outlets are trying to cherrypick a few polls or data points to push some type of narrative so they can keep things "on the level" with all the negative Trump press so that it's a horserace.

It really does come across as an extension of the revolving door of ways that Biden is going to implode.

[wbrocks67]

Florida might be a different story, but all this talk of Latinos shifting towards Trump seems like BS to me. The media is really interested in it. I just saw a piece this morning claiming that Trump is "sensing" an opportunity with Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona.

It reminds me of the #WalkAway thing in 2018. You had all this talk about Gen Z turning towards Republicans. (I believe "most conservative generation since the Silent Generation" was a common line that rightwing idiots were using.) There were think pieces on Gen Z being disillusioned with Dems and how the Dems were in disarray over it. There were some cherrypicked polls indicating that Democrats generated little enthusiasm among 18-24 voters. Then the midterms roll around and what happens? Young people overwhelmingly reject Republicans.

Who knows what'll happen with hispanic voters this year and, like I said, Florida is a different conversation with a unique and diverse political culture, but for now all this just seems very questionable to me.

Well to me there always needs to be some narrative about, in all seriousness, the "Dems in Disarray". So how many cycles have we gone thru this summer? Biden was doing too much in his basement, then he wasn't doing enough for black voters, then Wisconsin and Minnesota were going to go red, and now its Latino voters. It just feels like pundits and media outlets are trying to cherrypick a few polls or data points to push some type of narrative so they can keep things "on the level" with all the negative Trump press so that it's a horserace.

It really does come across as an extension of the revolving door of ways that Biden is going to implode.

And it's not to say that the Biden campaign is perfect, but it just comes across as these people trying to wish these problems into existence so that it's as much of a horse race as they want. Because with many of these things, they focus on like 1 poll or data point, and don't go by the averages or ignore other polls that say something else entirely of their narrative.

i.e., there have been plenty of polls now out of AZ, NV, CA, TX, etc. of Biden doing *better* among Hispanics than Clinton did in 2016 but those have all been ignored bc of 1 or 2 FL polls

[VAR]

Aug 20-Sep 2, 600 RV, MoE: 4%