Yahoo/YouGov: Biden +10

[pbrower2a]

Ordinarily I would expect this reesult to end up with the undecided breaking 8-4 to Trump (which would make a 53-47 Biden win) on the assumption that the undecided tend to go ineffectively toward the eventual loser. Exposures of what the President said about our active-duty soldiers and the revelation that he lied about COVID-19 (which is far worse than simply being wrong) could yet do more damage to the Trump vote. To be sure, the people offended by one are likely to be offended by the other. I do not ordinarily predict how a disclosure of horrible behavior will have impact upon subsequent polling, but in this case I will simply avoid making a quantitative guess.

In short this will not help him! 

[Ferguson97]

White voters: Trump 48-43

If Trump is only winning whites by 5 points, he's losing the election in a landslide.

[ProudModerate2]

Something tells me the double-digit leads are going to come-back over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

If all the undecideds break for Trump, he could still win the popular vote.

56%! of Pennsylvanians wont vote for Bob Casey!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something tells me the double-digit leads are going to come-back over the next 2-3 weeks.

No, its going to stabalize at 5 to 6 pts

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1304560540182863873

If that holds until November, Trump is doomed. I feel like a lot of people on here forget how narrow his victory actually was.

77k votes spread over 3 states is all it took for uneducated idiots to dismiss what was generally pretty accurate polling.

National polling was close, yes. But you can't dismiss state-level polling in swing states being off by 8-10 points.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1304560540182863873

If that holds until November, Trump is doomed. I feel like a lot of people on here forget how narrow his victory actually was.

77k votes spread over 3 states is all it took for uneducated idiots to dismiss what was generally pretty accurate polling.

National polling was close, yes. But you can't dismiss state-level polling in swing states being off by 8-10 points.

Of course, but Wisconsin was really the only state that was completely off beyond the margin of error, and pollsters have updated their methodology accordingly.

[Alben Barkley]

Good for John James.

[Sir Mohamed]

White voters: Trump 48-43

If Trump is only winning whites by 5 points, he's losing the election in a landslide.

Yup, though I don't buy that. Just as I don't buy Biden just getting 76% of the AA vote. He'll get over 90% regardless of who wins the EC. Donald "blacks are too stupid to vote for me" Trump won't get into double digits with them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

White voters: Trump 48-43

If Trump is only winning whites by 5 points, he's losing the election in a landslide.

Yup, though I don't buy that. Just as I don't buy Biden just getting 76% of the AA vote. He'll get over 90% regardless of who wins the EC. Donald "blacks are too stupid to vote for me" Trump won't get into double digits with them.

I've said this before but Trump will be lucky to get 8% again like in 2016. And that was when he wasn't outright antagonizing the black community as blatantly as he is this year.

[It’s so Joever]

White voters: Trump 48-43

If Trump is only winning whites by 5 points, he's losing the election in a landslide.

Yup, though I don't buy that. Just as I don't buy Biden just getting 76% of the AA vote. He'll get over 90% regardless of who wins the EC. Donald "blacks are too stupid to vote for me" Trump won't get into double digits with them.

I've said this before but Trump will be lucky to get 8% again like in 2016. And that was when he wasn't outright antagonizing the black community as blatantly as he is this year.

True, although if it weren't for BLM, Trump probably would have had a dead cat bounce.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When you have a Covid 19 environment, upsets can and will happen, we can very well see a 60/40 Senate due to Bullock, Gross, Hegar and Paulette Jordan. Everyone talks about 2022, but Biden needs a mandate, so there will be no excuse for Rs to obstruct with a filibuster

[Pericles]

White voters: Trump 48-43

If Trump is only winning whites by 5 points, he's losing the election in a landslide.

Yup, though I don't buy that. Just as I don't buy Biden just getting 76% of the AA vote. He'll get over 90% regardless of who wins the EC. Donald "blacks are too stupid to vote for me" Trump won't get into double digits with them.

Trump won the white vote by 21% in 2016, right? If Biden wins by 10%, he's probably improving by more than 8% on Hillary's 2016 margin with that demographic. To be fair though, a 16-point improvement seems a bit much.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We have a fuller release for this one now:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c97p828als/20200911_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf
1216 registered voters
Changes with August 27-28 YouGov/Yahoo poll

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 39% (-2)
Will not vote 2% (+1)
Other 1% (-2)
Undecided 9% (+1)