How many states will be won with less than 50% ?

[Calthrina950]

Which state was it in 2012?

There weren't any.

Obama won Florida with 49.9%

No, it was 50.01%. I'm pretty sure there weren't any.

If you're looking at the Wikipedia numbers, they appear to not count write-in votes. If you count write-ins, it was 49.9%

I've noticed this discrepancy as well. According to Atlas, Obama won Florida 49.90-49.03%, a margin of 0.87%. The Wikipedia article states that he won Florida 50.01-49.13%, a margin of 0.88%-hardly any difference with regards to that. The last election in which it is beyond dispute that every state was won with a majority of the vote is 1988. There are discrepancies evident in the results for many other presidential elections between Atlas and Wikipedia; given how thorough Leip tends to be with collating his data, I trust his judgment over that of Wikipedia.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Looking at the elections after 1968 (the last third party that won a state)...

A is year, B is the total third party percentage, and C are the states won with less than 50%

   A       B    C
2016    05.7    14
2012    01.7    01
2008    01.4    04
2004    01.0    03
2000    03.7    10
1996    10.1    26
1992    19.6    49
1988    01.0    00
1984    00.6    01
1980    08.3    24
1976    01.9    09
1972    01.8    00
      
My 2020 prediction has third parties at 02.1% I’m going to guess 5 states? My current map suggests 5: Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

[Hammy]

Florida and Wisconsin are two that I'm fairly certain about, as it's a fairly common occurrence. Both states have come in under 50% in every post-1988 election except Obama--and even Florida still did so in 2012.

Florida perhaps, but based on Biden's polling I'd be surprised if he got less than 50% in Wisconsin. It's Georgia and Texas that I suspect are among the most likely to be plurality wins since both candidates are averaging mid-40s support in each state.

North Carolina as well, in my judgement.

I'm an idiot apparently because I completely forgot about NC.