D internals: Biden up double digits in KS-03

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301186552362663938

[Pollster]

Also good news for Bollier.

[DaleCooper]

I think that these congressional districts' trends are relatively independent of the popular vote. I could easily see NE-02 going to Democrats (at the presidential level) even in a disastrous national environment where Biden falls to a mere +1 or 2

[Hope For A New Era]

Freedom District!

Likely D for this and for NE-02. Very good sign for Bollier also. It will come down to whether she can cut the rural margins as much as Kelly did, I think.

[Calthrina950]

This confirms that Johnson County is guaranteed to flip to Biden, and I would bet you that he picks up both Shawnee County and Riley County as well. Biden will almost certainly hit the 40% mark in Kansas, which I think Trump will win by between 9-15% at this juncture. And it is good news for Bollier, who as I've said before, cannot be written off.

[MT Treasurer]

Freedom District!

Likely D for this and for NE-02. Very good sign for Bollier also. It will come down to whether she can cut the rural margins as much as Kelly did, I think.

Also how well she performs in the Wichita area (I think even a narrow win in Sedgwick Co. would suffice).

[pbrower2a]

Kansas GOP splitting between moderates and right-wingers, with the moderates (Never-Trumpers) eventually taking over the small Kansas Democratic Party? We shall see.

[Roll Roons]

Kansas GOP splitting between moderates and right-wingers, with the moderates (Never-Trumpers) eventually taking over the small Kansas Democratic Party? We shall see.

The moderate-conservative split in the Kansas GOP has been a thing for quite some time. It's well-known that a Democrat will typically get elected governor if the two factions are seriously split and moderate Republicans break for the Democrat, as happened in 2002 and 2018. Also a bunch of moderate Republican legislators allied with the Democrats in 2017 to override Brownback on taxes.

[GlobeSoc]

The KC metro will probably shift hugely D, which should be good news for dems in Kansas and to a far lesser extent Missouri. Topeka and Wichita may also see solid swings as well, and while it doesn't mean that Kansas will go Dem this election cycle even in a huge wave, the consolidation of a geographic dem base should allow the dems to continue making gains in Kansas long term.

[Hope For A New Era]

Kansas GOP splitting between moderates and right-wingers, with the moderates (Never-Trumpers) eventually taking over the small Kansas Democratic Party? We shall see.

The moderate-conservative split in the Kansas GOP has been a thing for quite some time. It's well-known that a Democrat will typically get elected governor if the two factions are seriously split and moderate Republicans break for the Democrat, as happened in 2002 and 2018. Also a bunch of moderate Republican legislators allied with the Democrats in 2017 to override Brownback on taxes.

Something like 70 years now of neither party holding the governorship for more than 8 years at a time. Longest streak of party turnover of any state.