To those who are freaking out over Biden “collapsing”

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Remember when Pete was supposed to win the nomination?

[brucejoel99]

No, I objectively don't remember there being any point in time at which Mayor Pete was supposed to win the nomination.

[Xing]

Trying to convince Atlas not to freak out over a very slight change in the polling average is like asking a dog not to salivate when you put a small spoonful of peanut butter right in front of its nose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter whom gets it, unless there is a cure for Covid we are gonna continue to be in partial shutdown mode and social distancing.

But, unemployed people aren't gonna keep getting stimulus checks either, and certainly not UBI

[Rand]

It really doesn't matter whom gets it, unless there is a cure for Covid we are gonna continue to be in partial shutdown mode and social distancing.

But, unemployed people aren't gonna keep getting stimulus checks either, and certainly not UBI

K, now I’m 100% convinced you’re a bot.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes.  The fundamentals still favor Biden.  A lot of people have been saying the polls would tighten.  Kind of surprising it happened right after the conventions though.  The GOP convention was a total dud.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Remember when Pete was supposed to win the nomination?

Those were the days.

[Sadader]

Just as Dems are always in disarray, Biden will always be collapsing and making gaffes that will totally change the race. You ain’t black-gate was 100 days ago. The election is 64 away. Trump hasn’t changed his ineffectual messaging at all and the GOP is still running around like a headless chicken trying to decide on a strategy.

IIRC, Biden was at 33 to 1 odds on betting markets right after Iowa (I will be v rich if he wins). Biden will always be underrated because the GOP are insane and media types/journos are incredibly out of touch with Real Americans (seriously). The narrative will always be that Biden is finally collapsing.

And where can the inflection point for Trump possibly be if it isn’t a convention bounce? The expectations are absurdly low for Biden at the debates, so they are v unlikely to harm him. October Surprise? Even then is probably too late. This is shaping up to be the most hilarious election of all time.

[jdk]

Yes.  The fundamentals still favor Biden.  A lot of people have been saying the polls would tighten.  Kind of surprising it happened right after the conventions though.  The GOP convention was a total dud.

Looking at the YouGov crosstabs, it seems like the bump Trump got was from 65 and over crowd.

My guess is that some of the older people who turned on Trump because they didn't like being told they should be willing to sacrifice themselves for the economy, watched the RNC but came back home after watching the convention because of fearmongering about the radical left, marxism/ socialism/ antifa, etc.

[wbrocks67]

USC actually saw Biden increase this AM.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has to win one of the Rust belt states, and he probably is gonna be behind in, for the entire campaign.  His strategy has always been contest VBM ballots if he loses on Election day,  since the Crts are conservative, just like Bush W did.

Ds cant count on FL, there is still a Cuban embargo and Obama tried to take it away.

This election is far from over, that's why Biden is going to MN, WI, and PA.



But a 500 EC that Ds wanted to avoid a contested election is probably gone, if Trump loses, he has every right to check over VBM ballots, to ensure his voters are properly counted

Larry Sabato said that pending on events, soccer moms swing back and forth

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Literally when was Pete the favorite for the nomination?

[Hope For A New Era]

Remember when Pete was supposed to win the nomination?

...never?

"frontrunner" status went Biden -> Warren -> Biden -> Sanders -> Biden.

[BaldEagle1991]

Remember when Pete was supposed to win the nomination?

*Elizabeth Warren

[Devils30]

Both the far right and the wokes think Biden can win the popular vote by 6% and still lose.

[The Mikado]

Both the far right and the wokes think Biden can win the popular vote by 6% and still lose.

Ever since G Elliott Morris posted the chart that basically argued that:

PV vote tie or any sort of Trump win = Trump win
PV vote Biden +1 = Trump favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +2 = Tossup
PV vote Biden +3 = Biden favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +4 or more = Biden win

I've been basically convinced by it. Morris knows what he's talking about.

[Person Man]

Both the far right and the wokes think Biden can win the popular vote by 6% and still lose.

Ever since G Elliott Morris posted the chart that basically argued that:

PV vote tie or any sort of Trump win = Trump win
PV vote Biden +1 = Trump favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +2 = Tossup
PV vote Biden +3 = Biden favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +4 or more = Biden win

I've been basically convinced by it. Morris knows what he's talking about.

So to get the margins we had before, maybe we would need Biden +1.1%. It would be ironic if we get an exact freiwal election With the same margin as before with Trump winning Florida by .2%. Maybe Cunningham and Kelly win by outpolling Biden by 3%.

[catographer]

Both the far right and the wokes think Biden can win the popular vote by 6% and still lose.

Ever since G Elliott Morris posted the chart that basically argued that:

PV vote tie or any sort of Trump win = Trump win
PV vote Biden +1 = Trump favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +2 = Tossup
PV vote Biden +3 = Biden favored but not a sure thing
PV vote Biden +4 or more = Biden win

I've been basically convinced by it. Morris knows what he's talking about.

That’s based on a uniform swing, which I tend to agree with. But problem is that if Biden wins PV by 4+, the biggest raw vote gains he is making will be in Texas and California. So that inflates his national PV, while not showing a uniform swing in the rest of the country. Hopefully I’m wrong but I think that Biden +4 is still too close for comfort. Biden +5 is where I would start breathing easy.